Decoding the genomic sequence of the corona virus in Israel allowed researchers to accurately trace the movement of the virus from abroad into the State of Israel and from locality to locality within the country. * The study identified a cluster of patients in which the genome was 100% identical. The meaning: a significant part of the epidemic in Israel is the result of patients who are distributors of those who contributed to mass infection. * The data obtained from the research can greatly assist the decision makers in issues such as imposing a closure, opening borders, etc.
Researchers at Tel Aviv University, led by Dr. Adi Stern from the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Biotechnology in the Faculty of Life Sciences, sequenced for the first time the genome of the corona virus as it appears in Israel. The sequencing allowed the researchers to identify specific mutations that indicate chains of infection and the routes of movement of the virus from abroad to Israel and from place to place within the country.
The research students Daniel Miller, Noam Harel, Talia Kostin, Omer Tirosh and Moran Meir from Tel Aviv University participated in the study, as well as researchers from Emory University in the USA, from the Gartner Institute in Sheba, from the Holon Institute of Technology and the medical centers Sheba, Assuta Ashdod, Hadassah Ein Kerem, Furia, Soroka and Barzilai, as well as the Genome Center at the Technion.
The study is based on the analysis of genome sequences of over 200 patients in Israel, and on the geographical distribution of the hospitals in Israel, which together form a representative sample for the entire population in the country. The study was published on the medRxiv website for immediate sharing with the global research community.
Dr. Adi Stern from the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Biotechnology in the Faculty of Life Sciences at Tel Aviv University explains that the coronavirus is characterized by the fact that it accumulates mutations in a steady manner. These mutations do not affect the virus (meaning it remains stable and its violence does not change), but these mutations make it possible to trace the chain of infection from country to country. For example, at the beginning of the epidemic in China, one to two mutations were added. A virus with one such mutation migrated to Europe and accumulated more mutations, and from there to the USA and so on. Therefore, the mutations are a type of barcode that allows tracking from country to country.
As part of the study, the researchers compared the genomic sequences found among the patients in Israel to 4,700 genomic sequences from different countries in the world, and this is how the complete picture of the "chain of infections into and within Israel" was obtained.
As mentioned, the study shows that more than 70% of the patients in Israel were infected with a virus that originated in the USA, that is, carriers who were infected in the USA and "brought" the virus with them to Israel. Also, almost 30% of the patients belong to "chains of infection" originating in European countries: Belgium (about 8%), France (about 6%), England (about 5%), Spain (about 3%), Italy (about 2%) ), Australia (about 2%), Philippines (about 2%), Russia (about 2%). It should be noted that although all the genome sequences identify China as the starting point, there are almost no infections in Israel originating from China or other Asian countries.
Dr. Stern adds: "My lab deals with the evolution and genomics of viruses, and among other things we use RNA/DNA sequencing technology. When the corona epidemic broke out, we mobilized, like scientists all over the world, to study the virus that causes it. Our findings clearly indicate that most of the infection chains originate from the USA and European countries. In a forward-looking view, it is possible that in the future the gates of the country should be closed ahead of time with the outbreak of a global epidemic, thus significantly reducing the possibilities of the virus penetrating into Israel."
The movement of the corona virus within the State of Israel
In addition to this, genome sequencing provides accurate and objective data regarding the migration of the corona virus within the State of Israel. In doing so, he adds a critical layer to the epidemiological investigation which until now has been based on subjective questioning of carriers and patients - where they were and with whom they came in contact.
This is how it is possible to generate a lot of essential epidemiological information of different types:
- Discover infection rates in different settings - in the family, in the building, in the school, in the neighborhood, etc.
- Detect super-infectious agents at an early stage - carriers who, for various reasons, travel from city to city and infect many people. For example, identical viruses were discovered in samples from patients in places far apart, such as Tiberias and Jerusalem - which apparently indicates a carrier who traveled from one city to the other. These discoveries are important to understand how the virus spreads in Israel.
- Identify events that created mass infection and prevent similar events in the future. For example, the study identified a pool of patients whose genomes were 100% identical, and one possible suspicion is that this was due to patients being "super-spreaders" who contributed to mass infection. We are now combining this information together with information from epidemiological investigations to identify where these patients have been.
- In these and other ways, the precise data obtained from genome sequencing can serve as an extremely important basis for making correct and high-quality decisions regarding the questions that concern us all these days: when and where to impose a lockdown? When can the markets/malls/kindergartens be opened? How can the next wave be prevented if it comes? and more.
The mathematical-statistical model for estimating the number of patients
Another aspect of the research is the development of a complex mathematical-statistical model that relies on the genome sequences to evaluate epidemiological data from the epidemic. First, the model shows that the infection rate of the virus (that is, the number of patients that each patient infected) decreased significantly following the lockdown. Second, the model showed that there is great variation between patients in the number of people each patient infects. At the end of the day, the model estimates that over 80% of infections originate from only about 10% of the patients or less. This means that most of the infections in Israel happened because of "super-spreaders". Finally, as of today, based on the model and the floor plan, it can be estimated that no more than 1% of the population in Israel has been infected with the virus, meaning that Israel is very far from herd immunity.
In conclusion, Dr. Stern states: "In our research, for the first time, we performed massive genomic sequencing of the corona virus in Israel. This technology and the information it provides is of great importance for understanding the virus and how it spreads in the population, as a scientific and objective basis for decision-making processes at the local and national level. The data obtained from the research can greatly assist the decision makers in issues such as imposing a lockdown, closing borders, locating and isolating super-infectious people, etc. In this way, the research makes a significant contribution to dealing with the corona epidemic in Israel, and what's more: in this research we developed tools that will allow us to deal better, in real time, with the next outbreak of the corona and/or with any other epidemic that may appear."
More of the topic in Hayadan:
- Against the background of the spread of the corona virus: what is a 'super distributor'? An infectious disease specialist explains
- In Israel they manage to reduce the number of deaths from Corona compared to China and Italy, whose health systems were saturated
- Researchers from Tel Aviv University have developed a serological test to detect corona antibodies and will use it to test IDF soldiers
5 תגובות
Genomic research 90% of infections originate from religious people. If this is a statistical truth, this is not racism
For some reason, everyone avoids saying what is so obvious: during the period when the heavens were supposedly closed, sick Satmars continued to arrive here at the order of the Rebbe. It is a fact that 70% of the infections originate in the US, in addition we already know that kosher supervisors spread the virus throughout the country, and also that Bnei Brak was the epicenter of the infection. Why are they afraid to say what the researchers know and the findings reflect: ultra-Orthodox are responsible for most of the disease in our country, their name was cut off from the quarantine instructions, sick people continued to arrive, spread through a mechanism called "koshrut" for example to the Arab villages. We all saw the mass funerals in NY, during the lockdown, and saw the stupid rabbi say to continue praying together in yeshiva despite the epidemic. If anything from what I wrote is not true - bring conflicting data, because everything is documented backwards. I'm also Jewish, so you can't say that I'm anti-Semitic, but you can say that the ultra-Orthodox were definitely the originators/accelerators of the spread of the epidemic.
Sorry !
But Danny's comment should be deleted.
She is not at all related to the issue, she is racist and anti-Semitic.
Don't let the website downgrade to a cheap tabloid
It is also completely clear from which sector the corona patients came from the United States and in which places those mass infections occurred.
I also understand the hearts of the study editors who avoided revealing this information in the political and cultural climate of Israel today.
Flap to Litzman.
So in short - Bibi was proud that he closed the gates of heaven to those coming from China and Italy, but he hesitated a lot whether to close from the US as well and it took him many days to finally decide that it was impossible to close the US and leave other countries in the world that are cleaner, so he closed the entry from the whole world.
If he had shut down the USA as soon as he knew the strength of the epidemic there - he would have saved a lot of lives and there would also have been no need for the full shutdown that was imposed on the entire country and collapsed many businesses and destroyed the economy.
So he continues to take credit for the good steps he has taken (and he deserves it) but he is not close and takes responsibility for his blunders - and this is the biggest of them.