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In Israel they manage to reduce the number of deaths from Corona compared to China and Italy, whose health systems were saturated

This is what Prof. Nadav Katz from the Hebrew University says in an interview with the site The Scientist, who participated in the development of a model based on rate equations together with other researchers from the Hebrew University. Prof. Katz says that many researchers from different fields are joining the fight against Corona, even if it is not directly related to their field of research 

Coronavirus outbreak. FROM PIXABAY.COM
Coronavirus outbreak. FROM PIXABAY.COM

A team of researchers from the Rakeh Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University led by Professors Yeonan Ashkenazi Doron Gazit and Michael Assaf present a model that estimates the expected mortality in the next 10 days from the number of patients in moderate to severe condition. They found a bright spot - the curve of the number of patients in moderate and severe condition is less sharp than a few days ago and indicates moderation.

Prof. Nadav Katz from the Rakah Institute at the Hebrew University and one of the team members said: "The more moderate increase in the number of moderate/severe patients is a result of the internalization of the safety instructions and their existence by the public. The rate of infection with the disease decreases, and if fewer people become infected, the number of patients in moderate to severe condition will correspondingly decrease and fewer people will die."
The researchers also noted that further improvement is expected in the trend of hospitalized patients in moderate and severe condition in the coming days as a result of the worsening of preventive measures about 10 days ago. Of course, local outbreaks can change this trend and it is important to protect populations at risk.

In an interview with the Hidan website, he was asked about the effect of the mass contagion on Purim on the curve and said: "Certainly mass contagion events are not a good thing and Purim was a type of such event. But it's hard to say that there was a wedding first because the outbreak would probably have happened sooner or later."
"There was a massive infection on Purim and in some areas the infection continued because not everyone internalized the importance of the quarantine."

Infographic: Development of the Corona epidemic in Israel, March 2020. Courtesy of the Hebrew University
Infographic: Development of the Corona epidemic in Israel, March 2020. Courtesy of the Hebrew University

What exactly did you measure?
Prof. Katz: "We developed a means of characterizing mortality in the short term by correlating the patients in moderate and severe condition with the mortality that occurs approximately 11 days later. That is, the length of time when a patient arrives in moderate condition, until some of them die. The optimistic point is that the correlation in the period corresponding to the spread of the virus in China and northern Italy was death after seven days. When a lot of new patients in a moderate and severe condition are admitted at once, seven days later it has already manifested itself in mortality in a distinct way. In Israel, the medical treatment is better, because the health system has prepared, and the meaning is that more and more patients will survive.

How did you build the model?
"We were based on models of rate equations that are used in many fields of science, including quantum physics (Prof. Katz's main field of practice these days). On this basis, we developed a tool that allows us to run strategies of imposing a closure and opening it and see the consequences.

What insights did you get?
"The insights that come out of the model tell us that the epidemic is currently developing and we have not yet reached containment or containment. We only managed to lower the rate of increase thanks to the survey. The imposition of the quarantine helped the health system to prepare but did not yet cause containment or containment as they had hoped.

What happened in Italy?
"The Italians did not impose a lockdown in time and especially not on the older population which is the one that reaches critical situations. They did not internalize the need for an even stricter lockdown on them. Thank God we are not in the situation of Northern Italy where the health system was saturated to the point where they were unable to provide meaningful care to the critically ill. At an early stage they ran out of breathing systems and the result was a higher mortality. At this point it is not relevant to compare because we are managing to reach a rate of increase in the number of patients that the medical system can handle, this will change if they do not make sure to hermetically and completely isolate the elderly population which is the most vulnerable"

What are you most afraid of?
I fear the loosening of discipline. People will tell me it won't happen and everyone will think of a patent for washing hands instead of isolating as it is required. There are many patients who do not know they are sick, but they are contagious and the result is that the disease spreads. The only way to prevent this is true isolation.

What is the connection between this model and your field of activity - quantum physics?
It turns out that Spica's thinking is relevant not only to the main subject I am dealing with. I contribute the physical knowledge and the programming, and also some experience in models of supply. I also recruited some students. In such a period, one should utilize the abilities not only for things that intrigue us, but also for what benefits society. A great many researchers in all universities are recruited for a variety of projects, most of them not in their day-to-day professions, but even the Menchal patrolmen do not specialize in the logistics of medical equipment, but that is what they do today, but everyone contributes in their own way.

More of the topic in Hayadan:

3 תגובות

  1. Compare it to the German health system, it's an indication!

  2. Prof. Nadav Katz said that what he fears most is the laxity of discipline, right?
    But what stresses me the most is hearing about the ineffective treatment, the dragging of feet and the mismanagement in the whole story of nursing homes, sheltered housing, etc.
    It can be said unequivocally that if clear and quick decisions were made immediately - these grandparents, at least some of them, would have stayed alive for a while longer

  3. I really want to believe that what is written here is the absolute truth
    Data that has been checked over and over again before being told
    Because after you published an article that linked the Purim parties to the ultra-Orthodox, I wonder if there are other topics that I am less familiar with that suffer from a lack of accuracy

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