The IPCC models do not expect such a large positive feedback in the melting of the ice in the Arctic Ocean and Greenland. The sea level is expected to rise by a meter or more by the end of the century
The sea level is rising faster due to global warming than the models predicted so far. So claims Bill Hay, a geologist from the University of Colorado who claims to have an explanation.
The last official report of the IPCC, predicted in 2007 an increase of 20-50 centimeters by the year 2100. However, sea level rise measurements correspond to the upper part of the forecast or even exceed it, according to which it seems that the sea level will rise by a meter or even more by the end of the century .
"What is missing in the models that were used to predict sea level rise are critical feedbacks that accelerate everything" says Hay. He plans to present the findings today (Sun., November 4, 2012) at the Geological Society of America meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina.
One of these feedbacks is based on the Arctic sea ice, another is related to the land ice in Grinland and another deals with soil moisture and groundwater overexploitation.
"There is a connection to the Arctic sea ice," he says. Despite the fact that the melted ice, which is already in the ocean, does not raise the sea level by itself. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, leading to ice loss in Greenland and northern Canada. When the sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic Ocean, which is replaced by a flow of warmer, saltier water from the south.
"Therefore, it is a huge heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic region." saying hi "This mechanism does not appear in any of the models." The fact that the warm water makes the Arctic Ocean an ice-free ocean, which causes it to absorb sunlight instead of returning solar radiation to space like the ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic Ocean water, and everything gets warmer.
And of course there are formidable reserves of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, the sea level rose by 10 meters due to the melting of all this ice - without the help of humans. New data lead scientists to estimate that this increase lasted several centuries.
"It is possible to lose the entire ice cap of Greenland within a few hundred years, not thousands, only under natural conditions" he says. "It is impossible to know how quickly the process will happen with the amounts of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere."
Last summer, Greenland recorded a record in the degree of melting of the ice. The subglacial water currents are getting stronger.
"Ten years ago we didn't know too much about the phenomenon of water under the ice cap in Antarctica, but it exists and allows the ice to move, in some places even up the mountain due to the weight of the ice."
The ice crushes everything like toothpaste coming out of the tube. The only thing holding it all together are a few blocks of ice acting as a cork in a bottle at the tip of the continental glaciers. But according to him, no one has an estimate of how fast this water will escape into the oceans once the coastal glaciers disappear.
Another missing feedback is the amount of groundwater that is pumped around the world to compensate for droughts. This water is added to the oceans (a recent illustration of this effect in the USA appears On the NASA Earth Satellites website). All these positive feedbacks accelerate climate change and sea level rise.
"We would expect negative feedback to delay the process at some point" says Hay. "But as far as climate change is concerned, all the feedback appears to be positive."
This is because Earth's climate appears to have several stable states. Between these situations everything goes wrong and the changes can be fast. And according to Hay, due to human activity, the system wants to move to a new climatic state."
For further reading on the subject
to the researchers' press release
A cynical and cunning effort has been made by certain sectors to attack climate science - Prof. Yoav Yair at the conference of the website of knowledge, November 2011
22 תגובות
Moore, I checked the issue, it's simply not true neither Americans nor plaster. This is a warming denier who used raw data from the British Meteorological Service, and chose what was convenient for him, I explained in this article why he was wrong.
https://www.hayadan.org.il/global-warming-stop-wishful-thinking-161012/
Rather small children are fairer……..
Miracles,
Moore is more of a little boy 🙂
He will grow up and laugh at his own reactions in fifteen years
Mor
And there is no danger in smoking. In general - nicotine is healthy
I don't know if you are more of a liar or more of an idiot.
I think both...
But there is no global warming, you are hoping for it, there has been no warming in the last 16 years, you liar, the Americans said that, there is no warming, wait two more years, get out of Miza, because the ice age will begin, there is no warming, my father, Potsma
Well, before Nanya rants that the world is warming, the ball is getting hotter, and suddenly the ball isn't warming up, so go sell scary headlines to your grandfather, the water will rise in 100 years, maybe a meter
another one,
Are you spreading chaff again????
Eran,
The climate is not chaotic. You are confusing weather with climate.
So the disappearance of the glaciers is not something unusual and can be done even without human intervention?
Is there any proof that the process happening now is faster than the previous times it happened?
All climate phenomena are quite chaotic. To be honest, even witches have a good chance compared to scientists according to the state of this field at the moment :\ .
Already today scientists are looking for solutions to cool the earth and there are some interesting ones.
The hope that the solution will be effective and that the whole business will not get out of control.
An equally serious problem is the earth's magnetic weaknesses.
Oh oops my mistake
Ran and SAFKAN,
You have brought monstrous data, don't you think? Until the end of the century there are about 80 years, multiply your numbers and you get an increase much greater than one meter.. hmm...
According to the measurements, there is no change in the rate of sea level rise. The sea level was on average about 3 millimeters a year and nothing changed.
Models are stories and smears, only actual measurements prove what is happening. The measurements required all over the world, not selective measurements in special places where the water level rises above average.
Ran1, in the article they claim that all this is going to change soon.
It will be a very big increase.
What's more, 1.7 mm is a lot...
Models that models
Physical measurements in New Zealand show an increase of 1.7 mm per year.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2011JC007591.shtml
Enough of just trying to scare everyone.
my father
It is also correct to present different or opposing models or opinions, of course from the world of science
And since it is about values and comparisons to present tables that will illustrate more.
Father go to sleep, you are actually already asleep.
Headline correction: The water is ***expected*** to rise more than expected.
Please, don't be ynet and try to scare/change reality/write the truth but in the light the writer feels like.
It is enough to write the papers - they are scary enough - and everyone will understand from the papers what they will understand... there is almost no need to lie... it's just annoying...
Fascinating and worrying. Thanks for the important information that we are innovative.