No government in the developed countries is prepared for the robot revolution that will eliminate jobs throughout the organizational hierarchy

13 תגובות

1. world visitor,

   I think you are wrong. What interest will governments have in sending people to work when robots will do any kind of work (including combat on the battlefield) much faster, much more efficiently, and much cheaper? Why not pay people to stay at home and enjoy their lives when all the produce the country needs (food, clothing, products) will be produced cheaply and efficiently by robots?

   Don't you understand that in an age where robots know how to do everything (even commenting here on the science website) sending people to work would be an economic loss for the country? So why?

2. I see that no one is picking up the gauntlet here, so I will do this:
   The reason that the robots that come into use today are "retarded" robots is that human society does not know how to digest advanced robots and artificial intelligence.
   That's what this article says!!
   We don't live in the "age of gladiators" - you can't throw everything on the market and watch from above how people fight for their lives (especially when it comes to a battle for survival in which the entire population of the country is involved as one).
   The state will pay money to people to sit at home in the dream tonight!!
   Those who want to survive will have four options:
   1. To be a technological developer.
   2. Be an inventor.
   3. Be a business owner.
   4. To live on protections (financed by someone who does at least one of the other three options), this is the option of: those who are free at home, the academics and researchers (who are not engaged in technological development) and other people who will not be able to advance and adapt themselves to the technological age.

3. Matrix! With all the leisure that will be created - people will be tempted to live in one kind of virtual reality or another. I believe that the yeshivot world will be the only one that will not go through an unemployment crisis, since the ideal is to study for the sake of studying (well, maybe the philosophy classes too), while the rest of the world studies for financial gain, which will diminish, and there is no advantage knowing that the youth will increase and the ultra-Orthodox and the robots will rule the world side by side. And everyone else will play on the computer in an attempt to escape from boredom and the danger of devolving into crime that comes with it

4. The problem will not be with robots taking the place of humans. It happens, it will happen, and it will happen at an increasing rate.
   The problem will be people who sat at home, will get paid to sit at home and not disturb the system, but will look for interest in life...
   Now imagine in Israel, 2 million (let's say), people who lack basic training for modern life (former truck drivers, for example), who are paid by the state to sit at home, and whose boredom becomes dangerous to public order... scary

5. They once said it about the first printing press, then they said it about computers...
   The technological revolutions indeed cause the replacement of manpower with machines, but at the same time create industries and professions that did not exist before.
   Mish who even today thinks of studying a profession at the university and then working all his life in the profession he studied - who knew that there are almost no people with such luck.
   People just have to adapt to change...
   I suggest everyone to read the book "Who Moved My Cheese" by Dr. Spencer Johnson.

6. There are a lot of roles that people don't want and don't need to do and there doesn't seem to be any alternative at the door. Even the simplest roles have not yet been replaced (seamstresses, cooks' assistants, dishwashers, farmers...).
   "Smart" phones that cost thousands of shekels, are barely capable of voice dialing and certainly not able to understand and respond to sentences longer than two words. The "technological peak" in a laundry folding robot is one that needs to arrange its clothes on hangers and it knows how to fold up to ten clothes at a time so it takes more work and time than folding alone...
   Dishwashers and washing machines and other devices that are supposed to help in the home have not progressed anything in the last fifty years except to be even less reliable and provide more employment for technicians. Even the seemingly "almost" automatic vacuuming robots still require more work in tidying up their work area before they work than from the work they save, which is mostly just sweeping and not even washing.
   It's a lot of talk and gimmicks and sounds like science fiction, is it any wonder governments don't take it seriously?

   All "AI" of any kind are just tools that a person is required to use/supervise because they don't really function on their own, confusing sophisticated tools with apparent "thinking". It's like a pocket calculator that helps the cashier or the banker but really can't replace it.

7. Chaim P, it seems that the price of a robot will be more expensive than a car, let's start with the price of a new robot
   And let's remember that this is all one-handed if with a small amount of trackers and in most cases without artificial vision
   Something that is undoubtedly much simpler than a human or a robot that is supposed to imitate a human,
   (Multiply the hand 4 times, 2 legs, 2 hands, lots of trackers, systems of various types, sophisticated positioning and control, body, head, sophisticated vision, hearing, maybe a smell, and this is even before the first work he did)
   https://www.robots.com/faq/show/how-much-do-industrial-robots-cost
   In an industrial robot (one hand)
   They are talking about amounts of $50,000 to $80,000, but this is before the peripheral system, so the amount will be approx.
   $100,000 $150,000 because the industrial robot is "spoiled" he likes everything to come to him and leave him in order
   (It is true that with a humanoid robot the peripheral systems will be spared because it is supposed to be dynamic like us)
   As soon as there are additions of artificial vision for the addition of a slightly more dynamic product, the price will rise accordingly and also the artificial vision is still quite limited today, dedicated lighting is required, etc., we see some more indications why the price of this will be expensive at least in the first stages, you can see for those who don't directly From the industry in Discovery programs "How do we do it" which is very common in many factories that have automated production lines where a person sits and continues to kind of pack and arrange all kinds of pressure work,
   The owner of the factory does not keep homosipans because he is a socialist, he keeps them there because the automatic solution is too expensive and that is even before we talk about a homonid robot,
   Now you have to remember that the level of credibility that is needed is a human level
   99% is not enough because it means that not only did you invest in the robot, now the robot needs a person to continue to take care of the 1%
   Reliability of a system that is supposed to work in a dynamic world will be expensive because the meaning of such a system is that it is supposed to respond to a lot of unexpected situations.
   Even in agriculture, one of the most severe limitations of automation is the cheap labor force
   If I develop an automation system for agriculture and it takes many years for it to be patched and in the meantime there is cheap work, I go bankrupt before I can take off,
   Another indication is that the person really wanted to build a humanoid robot, he simply cannot because it is more complex than a vehicle
   They are taking their first steps today and it is likely that the problems will be solved and we will see humanoid robots that look like us, but the initial price will be high and it will take years for it to decrease, if we take any indication from the industry for the introduction of robots
   So it took a lot of years until we reached the number of robots that exist today, another subject that is interesting is how many people a humanoid robot can replace let's say it works well so it should be at least 3 shifts which is 3 people in a working day
   Now the robotic arm that is sold in mobile factories to load their product to the surface has very high loading and speed capabilities so that it replaces about 2-3 people in a shift, which is about 6-9 people per working day. The question is a robot in our image will definitely be able to think faster than us. faster? Maybe like a person who works super hard for a long time so if I were to guess he would be equivalent to 2 people in one shift
   But again if all that is needed is one person in a position then the robot will only replace 3 people in a working day
   And that's where the financial issue will come in. In addition to all of this, if the amount of work decreases, there may be a new equilibrium where the price of work will decrease even more.
   There are countries where people work for a few dollars a day to get a bowl of rice for the family
   No robot in the near future can compete with such a cheap price if it gives qualities that a human is not able to give

8. The easy part of implementing technologies is their development.

   Mass unemployment, increasing inequality (between the owners of capital-machines mainly and the working/salaried class), higher and more decisive governance (the governments or even corporations with lobbyists/military forces) which will minimize any possibility of demonstrations on the issue (either directly or indirectly) , and so'.
   May cause phenomena such as overshooting (perhaps also literally, unfortunately), in which there will be reluctance from assimilation and withdrawal in the use of technology, change in the method of government (Trumpism of various kinds), wars, religion, etc.

   In the current political climate, I don't see a too rosy future with technological development (at least not in the short-medium term), hopefully in the long term.

9. to the skeptic
   There is no reason to think that the cost of robots will be higher than the cost of a car, for example. (up to $20,000)
   Once you have developed a successful robot - then it is easy to put it into a production line.
   Don't forget that there are already very cheap robots today. For example, a robotic vacuum cleaner, almost completely independent. And the price is less than your daily fee.

10. There will definitely be a lot of people flying home
    On the other hand, for decades there have been automation solutions for example in agriculture and industry that have not been implemented and the reason is
    The price of a person is lower than automation,
    Will it also change that a robot with a humanoid structure will exist with a price approaching a million, maybe 2 million dollars?
    It is clear that if the price drops in the direction of twenty thousand dollars then we will see a massive entry of them into the fields of work
    Jobs that require long training and cost a fortune will be replaced as an example of many of the professions of doctors, lawyers, accounting, etc... also jobs that operate an expensive resource such as a truck that the robotic system will operate
    It is not at the level of complexity that a robotic system that needs to operate a humanoid robot, in addition it will channelize the use of the truck drastically, it will not rest for a moment like the giant container ships, every minute it stops is a financial loss,

11. I did not understand a word.
    Or the translation is bad (I'm satisfied. There are neat sections there). Or David Kickpatrick doesn't quite understand what he's saying. Or I'm a complete idiot (I'm satisfied).
    But, the question presented is indeed clear: governments must think about the robot revolution that will eliminate many jobs. Or, rather, the Revolution of Royal Reason. This wisdom will replace many facts.
    And hence, quickly to the conclusion that mass unemployment is expected across the globe.
    (Haha. I think the ultra-Orthodox will not have an unemployment problem - every spare moment they go to yeshiva)
    Robots will work in agriculture, industry, banks, offices, ports, transportation, everywhere. They will work in droves. More efficient, more accurate, 24 hours a day. Thousands of jobs will become vacant. Mass unemployment.
    This may happen quite quickly. within 20 years.
    However, it should be noted that the living costs will be very low. Items made by robots are always very cheap. The food will be cheap, the clothing, the housing. Just what do you do with so much free time?
    However, the problem is not urgent. Sufficient for trouble in its time.
    It seems to me that the article presented a question and tried to answer another question...

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