Trump failed to understand that the problems he faced and led to his election were not the product of random capitalist processes, but different forms of the impact of the robotic revolution. It is probably impossible to defeat it and perhaps we shouldn't either, but we must moderate its effects by moving to a European economic model
The US elections won by Donald Trump should no longer be a wake-up call. We had several of these, the most prominent among them being the British vote to leave the European Union (Brexit). The two protest votes resulted in a not really optimal solution and not one that should solve the problem facing the middle class all over the world, and in particular in the Western countries.
Trump detailed patriotic strings according to which, if he is elected, he will solve the problem of the flight of jobs from America to China (which I will expand on soon), the outsourcing, the immigration from "Mexico" (those who enter through the southern border are mainly people from South American countries that are in crisis), the The average wage adjusted for inflation has not increased or decreased for many Americans since the XNUMXs, and a host of economic problems give Americans the feeling that the rich are getting richer at their own expense and are being pushed to the margins, especially when the supply of high-paying jobs is shrinking and high-tech people, most of whom end their careers at a young age, are forced to work in services at best At a much lower salary, not to mention the aging of the population in many cases without an adequate pension (in the US, pensions are linked to the workplace, and the rate of their closing is one of the highest ever). Apple's transition to manufacturing in China is not the problem that needs to be attacked as Trump claimed, but is itself a result of the inevitable processes.
The answer is a bit complex. True, the feeling that a smaller and smaller percentage is taking the resources previously directed to the middle class. All the claims - starting with the claim of the loss of jobs to India and China in outsourcing for twenty years, through the issue of immigration, the drop in average wages, uncertainty about the future at the retirement age of the baby boomer generation, are all true. But they chose someone who was wrong all the way in understanding the causes of the crisis.
Perhaps except for Bernie Sanders, who proposed a solution of increasing the safety net, because he knew that it was impossible to solve the basic economic problem, none of the candidates, from both parties, put their finger on the root of the problem. The root of the problem is not the Chinese (who "stole" manufacturing jobs and are now also beginning to lose them to less developed countries), nor the Mexicans, or the South Americans who come to America en masse, just because the situation in their countries of origin is worse and it is easier for them to get to the US than to Europe ( Unlike, for example, immigrants from Africa and the Middle East).
The root of the problem, from which the Chinese and the Indians, the Mexicans, the Venezuelans also suffer, we are the robots. The solution of computerization, with various cognitive methods, as a replacement for professional jobs, is the modern version of the industrial revolution. Perhaps like the industrial revolution that moved the world forward, the robotic revolution will do the same. However, just as during the industrial revolution, no one thought what would happen to all the peasants who came to the cities, who lived in substandard conditions and financed the textile industry for pennies, so in fact is happening or will gradually happen to all those bank clerks, accountants, stock traders on the stock exchange floor, journalists (although Indirectly - as a result of the loss of revenues and their transition from companies that produced press by humans, to companies that have no press expenses at all - Facebook and Google. The day of automatic writing of articles is not far off either. This is already happening today, in particular in reporting on the business results of companies.)
It is called the fourth industrial revolution, in fact the meaning is that the agricultural revolution in the cradle of culture was the first revolution that freed people from the need to look for their food, the industrial revolution in the 18th century that transferred routine jobs to machines, the computer revolution in the 20th century that mechanized and made many professions more efficient (an extreme example of this was The groups of female thinkers at NASA who manually calculated launch angles, resistance of materials under load and more).
And now the information revolution. where not only the computers themselves are replaced by robots but also their operators and programmers. At IBM's WOLRD OF WATSON conference about two weeks ago in Las Vegas, several speakers reiterated that there is no need to program a cognitive computer, but only to train it and it will already learn patterns on its own and respond accordingly. How many programmers will be required in the conversion from programming to training? And how much will they pay for training? Technologies like the Internet of Things will mean that many sensors will talk directly to the computer and skip the human in the middle.
If we add to this a sub-revolution of the industrial revolution - the mechanization of the trade procedures themselves, which caused people who once made a good living to become minimum wage workers at Walmart, it seems that there is indeed a problem. It is clear that it will take a generation or two until the situation stabilizes as in the previous revolutions, and the children of those technology refugees will be able to work in high positions in professions that cannot be computerized (if there are any).
Those who expect a wave of immigration from the US following the election of Trump are right, but these will not be the "Mexicans". In the hotel elevator in Barcelona this morning (I'm at a SAP conference) one of the American technology journalists told me that her first reaction is to find out about options for moving to Spain.
Europe is probably facing a wave of immigration that will not arouse opposition like in the past - educated people from the middle class from the USA. The reason - although Europe is mostly not prepared for the new revolution, the economic system there still supports the existence of a middle class, and European countries have a safety net. This is something that America does not have (and Israel is also quickly following suit). In an era of occupational uncertainty, there is probably a need for some kind of safety net that will allow the desert generation not to fall into the street.
Perhaps there is no solution to most of the problems that Trump has floated, he just needs to understand that war on each of them separately will not bring the solution closer without solving or at least trying to solve the cause of them and since this is impossible - at least to moderate its effects. R2D2
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snap out of it. There is no such thing as "safety nets".
Check how and if at all it takes place in Europe.
- There is old money - countries like Switzerland. With a small population and old money that has accumulated and finances the network
- There is oil money - like in Norway. It's easy to finance when you pollute the sea
- There is stolen money - like France and Belgium who robbed half the world and then socialists stole it. The bad news is that it really doesn't work because the money is gone.
In short, there is no substitute for value creation and competition. No "network" can replace education and human development.
Europe is on the way down and the US as usual will win
anonymous
Please give a source that NASA is lying. Or Stanford. Or if Ai T. Or UC Lee. or NOAA
skeptic
The nation was founded following World War II. Basically, it was built to put order in the world. An order of good morals, one that will benefit the citizens of the world.
The founders are the winners of the war - Russia, Great Britain and the United States.
The conflict between Russia and America has taken root within the walls of the UN since its founding.
USA - as a leading power, always tries to be the first to solve global problems.
But this does not mean that she is obliged to do so or that it is required of her. It does so out of national and political interest.
As of today, Russia wants and is trying to take this role of world policeman from the Arabs.
Today - after the election of Trump - the Russian government does not stop congratulating the entire media on his election. And she doesn't stop showering him with praise and telling everyone how much they are looking forward to working with him.
'Cold War 2' was over before it even started.
As it seems - the Russians and the Americans are going to build a better world. And mainly because of Trump.
What's more, in Russia, the Russian government claims in the last two days: "Trump promises to work with us (Russia) and the State of Israel in the Middle East." It seems that Russia, the USA and Israel are going to cooperate in the coming years for the benefit of strengthening these countries - as was not the case during Barack Obama's time and before. Blessed is the believer. It's good that we won the presidency of Donald Trump!
Miracles
I am not ashamed because I have nothing to be ashamed of. I don't do shameful things.
And regardless of that, regarding the research institutes - so, yes! All the institutes that claim there is global warming are institutes that received a budget from the group that opposes the use of energy for the benefit of the future of humanity. The same group does this out of political and economic motives (economic - in the sense of economic profit. For their benefit, of course).
The same group wants to advance its interests at the expense of the citizens.
They want the people to use something else instead of the one thing they use and for that they are ready to do everything (including propaganda and spreading lies) to promote their interest, which is - using another energy.
There are signs of global warming.
There are also signs that the Earth is freezing 'from time to time'.
And if it bothers someone that the earth is warming, then let them stop warming the earth and start minding their own business.
anonymous
Did they pay all the research institutes in the world? And no one whistled on anyone? No journalist broke this story of hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes? Sorry - hundreds of millions of dollars/euros/pounds/Australian dollars/shekels....
Are not you ashamed?
Strange article, what is Trump's connection to robotics, the only connection he will use is if he can make money from it,
It is impossible to subject everything that moves under the sun like some political religious mantra,
The robotic revolution will come with or without Trump has nothing to do with it,
And if you are already entering politics then
The European example is a catastrophic disaster that will be written in the blood of the peoples of Europe, although there are impressive things
What Europe did in science, it also destroyed the future of the peoples of Europe for a fair and safe life under the sun,
There is nothing to get excited about the European Union, it is a body that does not stand up to direct and democratic elections
of the peoples of Europe these are officials sent by different parties, as soon as this body takes the power to make decisions, it is a fate for the peoples of Europe that only elected governments and presidents need to take, it becomes a dictatorial body
A kind of one party that did not love the peoples of Europe anything directly but their senders
On the contrary, the nationality and religions of the nations are seen by them as a threat, see the value of Britain.
Trump is rude but he is a kind of bitter medicine that can on the contrary save the democracies of the West from collapsing
But we will know that only in the coming years.
Obama as Trump said is a good man but the ideology he led caused terrible global damage
And it won't help to keep crying over Bush's mistakes,
The wisdom of a power is when to use force and when to avoid force. Between Bush and Obama, one long failure was created
It's hard to see how Trump can even fix this baruch
From Ukraine, where it was necessary in advance not to push the opposite nose to talk with the Russians, to the South Sea, where it was necessary to show a presence right at the beginning, this is the demonstration of the weakness of the USA under Obama, it has caused damage, now it is too late, reminds me of Iran under Carter, to the IDF in Libya, where it was not allowed Intervene, etc... simply global political ruin
of an ideology that the idea behind is not bad but it cannot be implemented and expected to work.
Miracles
For each such study, you will only be able to bring ten studies that were paid to claim otherwise... 🙂
The fact that the US media and Israel hate Trump is because of one thing: he has money. And because he has money, he does not need the money of the capitalists who control the country. And therefore those capitalists cannot influence him so that he will do as they wish. And only because of this the same capitalists spend their money on those who bought their opinion - like the Clintons.
As soon as Trump takes the office of president, we are expected to see the left-wing faction in Israel and in the US come out against him for all the injustices created by the fired President Barack Hussein Obama.
safkan
You wrote "The scares of global warming.". Let's do an exercise - for every scientific research center that claims there is no warming - I will give ten that support it. what are you saying?
Oh, and an "institute" that claims that there is no proven link between smoking and lung cancer will not come across as a scientific institute.
your turn…..
I also think that the robotic revolution is still far away. This is a reaction to a disconnected government in the last 8 years. The media ignored what was written on the wall in white Kiddush letters.
Regarding the medical insurance that was supposed to provide insurance to people who didn't have it, it caused prices to increase and insurance to decrease, companies that provided insurance to employees saw it as a way to evade responsibility and the result was the opposite of the goal
In the field of employment, although 5% unemployment is a little, but these are minimum wage jobs that cannot earn a decent living
In the national sphere, America is seen as weak against external and internal threats
Furthermore, Hillary was seen as a liar
And the vote was more against the status quo
You hated Haman more than you loved Mordecai
Really simple
Trump's response to the article would be:
give a break meaning: don't confuse my brain.
There are probably those who remain stuck in arrogance and think that Trump does not understand what he is doing. The point is that Trump made billions and won the presidency despite the opposition of the establishment, so he probably understands very well what he is doing. The author of the article does not understand, so it is his problem.
Trump is neither for robotics nor against robotics, Trump will choose in a rational way what will prove to be effective for American society.
He is neither in favor of a European-style regime nor against it, he will choose a regime that is good for the United States according to the outcome test.
What's for sure: Trump will not pay a single dollar at the expense of global warming scaremongering. Today is the funeral procession of the people of global warming. There is also no point in intimidation and payments in Eden. In the 21st century, the use of fossil energy will decrease because there are cheaper forms of energy (solar energy and cold fusion energy), it will be amusing to see what he will say if the temperatures in the world rise another degree or two despite the massive decrease in fossil energy, they will have to invent more sophisticated scares
I guess the exact same article was written when the first tractor started plowing.
An article that is not suitable for a science website.
Haim Mazar: By what standards do you measure the outgoing president?
In my opinion - he saved the American butt (and a few more along the way).
No. His beginning was not similar to the president who preceded him.
I have no doubt that the years to come will judge him as one of the best presidents ever (and not just for the USA).
Regarding the article itself, a 'security network' was mentioned there and I did not fully understand what this network consists of... (?)
The destruction of the environment, global warming and cutting down trees also cause the depletion of resources in the third world and migration.
When many people in the world become unemployed due to automation or the transfer of jobs to cheap countries, combined with waves of immigration of populations from third world countries with completely different cultures and values - all of these are a favorable ground for the rise of right-wing governments and the convergence of the economy.
If the way of the right and Trump disappoints and does not deliver the goods, you will get a coup. This could be a quiet revolution of people who will establish communes where there will be a sense of reason and purpose to their lives
Exactly the opposite, the Democrats dried up science, including NASA and the military, and all the money went to welfare funds and buying votes from world 3 immigrants. Only the Republicans will be able to live the space program and reach Mars and beyond... with the help of developments that will also come in the military field. The Herpatbeliks are interested in the free market and the promotion of science. Democrats are only interested in delusional social experiments and social engineering. The Democrats grew out of the backwardness of the humanities and Obama spoke highly, but in practice he dried up NASA because the Democrats do not want a strong and prosperous USA but equality of nations and a world government. Trump will restore glory to the #1 power
Note-
Without referring to this or that aspect of the US elections. It is impossible to know anything about the future in terms of Trump's performance. There was a movie actor who presented a presidential candidacy. His name is Ronald Reagan. His very candidacy caused ridicule and in retrospect it turned out that he was not a bad president. Years later a candidate came all wrapped in charisma and great promise. It was Barack Obama. At the end of two terms, he turned out to be a lukewarm president. He was not a success story. You just have to hope for one thing that Donald Trump doesn't turn into Donald Duck
All the theories mentioned here are nice and there are probably many others but none of them present the real reason for Trump's election and it is trivial.
Although we want to believe this, human behavior has not changed that much in the last thousands of years and the reason governments have fallen since the Greek era is that the people are fed up with the current government and therefore preferred any other choice. Therefore Trump was elected because the people were not satisfied with Obama's rule. If you want to know what he was not happy with, just listen to Trump's election campaign and you will get the most accurate picture.
The current rebellion is against the erosion of the middle class of the last 30 years regardless of robots. If anything, the robot revolution and the Internet of Things need to be accelerated in order to bring about a rapid increase in the product that will allow for an increase in the well-being of the middle class.
The "robot revolution" (if it does happen) is not what the masses of Americans who support Trump are against. The jobs that left the western world and moved to China and other Southeast Asian countries moved because it is cheaper to pay a divorced Chinese worker without worrying about social rights than an American / European worker with lots of social rights. If the robotic revolution happens, it is currently displacing these Chinese workers, not the Americans, who are no longer in production jobs.
That is: the rebellion is against the revolution of the past - globalization, and not against the future robot revolution.
The vision of mass unemployment as a result of robotics could possibly happen - but is still in the future. Discontent with the current situation is very deep and relies on the American middle class stepping on the spot - income has not increased for 40 years and most of the wealth goes to the elite and the upper millennials. The American people see the celebration of finance, which has not stopped for almost a moment since the landslide of 2008, and how huge sums are poured into the banks in the form of "quantitative easing" and they continue to celebrate - and their souls are broken.
I'm not sure that Trump is the right man for the job and I don't know if he is able to recognize someone from the middle class even if he meets one, but this is what the American people were offered to choose from - at first a collection of Republican stuffed animals in front of Trump, and the second time in front of an even bigger stuffed animal that symbolizes the government existing and being in the pocket of the bankers - and that is what the people chose.
In my opinion, the analysis presented in the article is fundamentally wrong.
I will explain
According to the author, the robotic revolution, or as the author calls it, the fourth industrial revolution, causes the loss of many jobs and sources of livelihood.
This is a half truth.
The other half of the truth is that the robotic revolution is also creating a lot of jobs. in planning, marketing, service distribution, etc., etc.
The first interest of the manufacturers is that there will be a large audience, with great purchasing power, who will be able to purchase the products produced by their robots.
This interest operated at the macro level, so the crises that brought Trump to power should not be attributed to the robotic revolution.
What brought Trump up is not an economic crisis. America is not currently in an economic crisis, on the contrary, during the Obama era the USA recovered from the crisis and is currently in a period of recovery and growth.
The crisis that raised Trump is a cultural-social crisis!!!!.
For the sake of brevity, I will summarize the idea as follows:
The Trump phenomenon is the reaction to the culture of the "polite lie" called "Political Correctness" in French.
The audience is fed up with the polite lie (it's also a rhyme).
The audience prefers the direct truth (Political Truth), even if it is sometimes unpleasant to the ear.
Political Truth – in Political Correctness – out
Greetings. I completely agree with you - both on the Trump question and on the solutions, but there is one thing that you should consider - the revolution as planned in your mouth is the robotic revolution - I think this name is inappropriate and its name should be - the automatic revolution - it is a more catchy name - and describes it well more the set of things that will lead to a revolution. In my opinion, the inheritance of this name will be an honor for your site. The revolution is going to be of the same magnitude as the industrial revolution and contain similar characteristics such as Luddites, far-fetched legislation, surprising technologies, etc.