Colonialism - the next generation

There is no escape. The next stage in the development of humanity will be going outside the earth and settling in space. It is not a luxury, but an existential necessity. Amnon Carmel returns to the fascinating historical story of the first settlement of humans on Easter Island and applies a parable to all of us - about territory, migration and proper management of resources

Amnon Carmel, "Odysseus"

"We do not inherit the land from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children" (ancient Indian proverb)

Always in times of economic crisis voices are heard calling to stop or significantly reduce the huge investment in space research. The main argument is that this is a theoretical study dealing with the history of the universe and its unseen future, without practical implications of the study on our lives.

Spending billions of dollars to understand a cosmic event that will take place in four billion years seems to many like an absurd and unnecessary act. I believe in the view that humanity has never needed space exploration more than it needs it today.

The study of the universe helps us first and foremost to answer one of the questions that have troubled humanity since the dawn of its existence - where did we come from and where are we going? In addition, there is a dramatic contribution to man in technological developments that improve our lives, in advanced means of communication such as satellites and GPS, and in the advancement of scientific research in all disciplines. These are certainly important things, but today, at the beginning of the 21st century, it is clear to everyone that space exploration is actually dealing with the most critical issue for our existence - how to ensure the long-term survival of the human race.

Humanity has reached such a level of development that it can easily annihilate itself today with its own hands. The earth is a relatively small ecological niche in the vastness of the universe and man may in a relatively short time destroy it totally or make it an impossible space for human life. We are at a critical point - on the one hand, we are endangering our future on earth with our own hands, but at the same time we are planting the seeds of hope for a new future for humanity.

It is indisputable that we are depleting our planet's resources at an ever-increasing rate, and because of this, suffer, among other things, the damages of global warming, which bring upon us more and more frequent and severe disasters such as floods, storms, fires, droughts, rising sea levels and other disasters. Moreover, today more than ever there is a chance of global disasters such as an atomic war, a biological terrorist attack or an outbreak of global epidemics, which may spread rapidly due to globalization.

Another threat arises precisely from the strengthening of individualism. This empowerment can cause on the one hand the immediate fame of a single person due to his skills or achievements, but at the same time another person located in a central point of power can cause disasters on a global scale. In his book "The Lexus and the Olive Tree" published in 1999, Thomas Friedman wrote about the most tangible and immediate danger to the USA. He coined the phrase - "the angry man with superpower" and chose to demonstrate the phenomenon on Osama bin Laden and his terrorist gang. About two years later, the twin buildings were demolished.

With the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, we are approaching the day when that "angry man with superpower" will have at his disposal not only hijacked planes but also biological, chemical and even atomic weapons. As Sam Harris wrote in his book "Amazed by God": "Meeting the Creator has never been difficult, but in fifty years, it will be too easy to drag the rest of the world to meet him."

It is possible that a global disaster that threatens the existence of all humanity sounds like a distant threat to many, but in fact we are closer to it than ever. Our technology is advanced enough to cause a catastrophe that, even if it doesn't wipe out all humans, it could certainly return us to the Stone Age.

We must learn from history and do as much as possible to preserve the only home we have (for now), defend against various threats, and at the same time devote every effort to build alternatives and ways of escape that can be used by the human race in the future.

Do we learn from history?
If you are convinced that the human race is always capable of dealing successfully with the destruction of resources, the destruction of the environment and the ecological and economic threats, you should read the book "Collapse" written by Prof. Jared Diamond (who won the Pulitzer Prize for his previous book "Bacterial Guns and Steel").

Diamond presents numerous examples of cultures that were damaged or completely extinct due to the destruction of their resources. He names, among other things, the Norse settlement in Greenland, all of whose inhabitants died after consuming all the natural treasures available to them; the people of Haiti, the poorest and most densely populated country in the new world; the Ansazi and Mayan civilizations in America, which collapsed following the transformation of dense forests into arid areas that do not allow human existence; and the genocide in Rwanda, which resulted mainly from the Malthusian catastrophe (named after Thomas Malthus) - an exponential increase in the number of inhabitants and a war over resources that were used up to the limit.

One of the best examples - presented extensively in the book "Collapse" and also mentioned in many other places, such as in the book "The Third Chimpanzee" by Diamond - is the sad fate of the inhabitants of Easter Island in the Pacific Ocean. This is an excellent parable for the human race, and if we only learn to internalize the lessons from this case, we may be able to make our world better for future generations.

The tragedy of the inhabitants of Easter Island
On the Easter holiday of 1722, the Dutch captain Jakob Roggeveen arrived at Easter Island, now also known as Rapa Nui, and stood in awe of what he saw: along the shores of the island, which was almost completely deserted, stood hundreds of statues Large and impressive stones that each weigh tens of tons, and the tallest of which was 11 meters high - about the height of a three and a half story building.

On an initial tour of the beach, the captain and his fellow travelers tried to find out by what means the islanders were able to build such a complex engineering plant, but to their surprise all they found was scanty vegetation. There were no trees in sight and no signs of the presence of large beasts of burden. Ruhfan and his friends looked at each other in bewilderment and asked themselves how the natives of the island managed to erect these giant statues, and what happened to the members of the glorious culture who carved them.

When Rufan and his team penetrated deep into the island, they met the natives of the place, a few hundreds of thin people, almost completely naked and destitute. Their sailing vessels were small and leaky and required constant emptying of the water that penetrated into them, so it was not possible to get away from the shore in them. It was evident that the natives are barely able to survive on the desolate island, which is located in one of the most isolated places in the world - more than 3,500 kilometers from the coast of South America in the east, and almost two thousand kilometers from the nearest inhabited island in the west - Pitcairn Island.

The inexplicable gap between the impressive engineering achievements of the unknown planners and the scarce resources on the island also troubled Captain James Cook, when he arrived at the islands fifty years later, in 1774 as part of his second voyage across the Pacific Ocean.

Over the years since the discovery of Easter Island, various researchers have tried to come up with different theories and hypotheses to explain the mystery. They talked about a South American empire that spread to Easter Island from the east (Thor Heyerdahl's Journey to Kon Tiki); suggested the possibility of some connection with the Egyptian Empire; And of course the wild alien theory of Erich von Däniken, published in his book "Chariots of the Gods" in 1968, stood out above all of them. Only in recent years, after strenuous and comprehensive research by scientists from different and diverse disciplines, the true story of Easter Island was probably revealed.

Before humans arrived there, the island was a green paradise covered in dense subtropical forest, and served as the richest nesting site in all of Polynesia, and possibly even in the entire Pacific Ocean basin. According to testimonies and estimates, various species of seabirds lived there peacefully, as well as sea lions and large lizards. Along with various types of tall and thick-stemmed trees, there were palm trees on the island that were probably the tallest palms in the world.

Today it is commonly believed that the Polynesians arrived at the island in large and durable sailing vessels, at the latest around 800 AD. They were talented and knowledgeable seafarers and carried with them supplies to establish a settlement.

With the help of the sailing vessels they brought and the advanced technologies for fishing and marine hunting, the new inhabitants of Easter Island could live comfortably, with their food based on the many animals and plants on the island, as well as on dolphins and tuna fish living in the open sea. The favorable conditions led to a dramatic increase in the population, which at its peak reached about 15 thousand people.

Their religious customs, which were mostly based on the prevailing belief in Polynesian culture, included the construction of large stone statues that they called Muai and reflected the spirits of their ancestors. The statues were placed on large stone platforms as a tribute to the gods.

Over the years there has been a massive increase in the size of the statues, probably due to the craze for sizes and ego wars and the worship of the tribal leaders. The weight of the largest statue that was placed on the island was about 88 tons and an enormous statue weighing about 270 tons was discovered in the advanced stages of quarrying.

The inhabitants of the island had to cut down more and more trees to build the giant statues and to satisfy the needs of the growing population. Within a few hundred years the big trees were completely destroyed and only low and useless plants remained. At the same time, many species of winged animals were exterminated, while rats that arrived with the Polynesians quickly multiplied, eating the eggs of birds and destroying the seeds of trees and plants. The result was that in a relatively short period of time the green and full of life island became desolate. The lack of trees also resulted in the inability to create durable sailing vessels, and thus the descendants of the Polynesian seafarers were left without the ability to hunt edible fish from the open sea, and worse - without the possibility of leaving the island.

In the 17th century, the distress gave rise to a bitter struggle between the 12 tribes on the island, which led to total chaos and even cannibalism. Many tried to save their lives and fled to hidden caves. In their anger and despair, the inhabitants of the island began to knock down and smash the giant statues that their ancestors had built with great effort. They felt that the gods had failed them.

Slave traders from Chile and plagues that came from Europe almost completely wiped out the island's inhabitants, and today only 36 descendants of the original natives live on Easter Island.

Colonialism in the solar system
It is easy to see the parallel between the sad history of Easter Island and humanity in the modern age. In both cases it is a population that is depleting its resources at an increasing rate, and moreover - it is a population that is unable to go outside its geographical borders. Even if the parallel is not perfect - the parable does not lose its power.

And so, Diamond wrote in his book: "The similarities between Easter Island and the modern world as a whole are clear enough to freeze the blood. Thanks to globalization, international trade, jet planes and the Internet, all the countries of the world today share their resources with each other and influence each other, just like the dozen tribes of Easter Island... This is why many see the collapse of the Easter Island Company as the worst case scenario, as an example of why that we have our own future."

If we want to survive in the long term, we must strive for a situation where there will be human settlement points outside the borders of the planet. This is of course not a new idea. In the middle of the 19th century, the possibility was first voiced, which was then completely imaginary, and from the second half of the 2000th century, the idea moved from the field of science fiction to the research and development laboratories. Since the year XNUMX, there has already been a permanent human settlement on the International Space Station, but this station is still not independent and is completely dependent on supplies from Earth.

Many claim that human settlement on the moon, Mars or other planets and moons is a natural expansion step, from which there will be no escape. Robert Wright claims in his book "NONZERO" that even though there is no intelligent planner of any kind, evolution moves in a uniform direction leading it towards higher and higher complexity. That is, our evolutionary destiny leads us from the stage of creating the first replicator through the formation of plants and complex life, to the formation of intelligence and globalization and finally - to the expansion to other planets.

Prof. Hagai Netzer and Ami Ben-Best in their book "Journey to Wisdom" also adhere to a similar approach, according to which "the departure of the human race into space is probably a necessary step in our development". In their book, Netzer and Ben-Best present a version of the Drake equation (named after Frank Drake), which aims to try and estimate how many intelligent civilizations at least as developed as our own exist in our galaxy. According to their estimation, there are about forty million cultures that existed or still exist.

Even if there is only a hint of truth in the calculations in the book, then our universe should be teeming with life. This is an approach that is gaining more and more recognition among the scientific community, and various projects, such as the SETI project, have been established to try and locate some sign of life from space. Will we, then, get to meet with intelligent beings when we leave the borders of the earth? If this is indeed the case, it is likely that many wars are expected for our descendants over the available resources in the galaxy.

It is hard not to be skeptical of such an approach, as Prof. Enrico Fermi said in 1950 - "Where is everybody"? If the universe is full of advanced civilizations, why haven't they gotten here yet? The futurist and post-humanist Ray Kurzweil examines the Drake equation in his book "The Singularity is Near" and points out the main flaw in this equation and in equations similar to it - our knowledge is based on the Earth alone.

For example, trying to estimate what percentage of stars can form life is almost purely a guess, since the only example we know of is Earth, and we don't have enough information about the formation of life to try and estimate how common this process is. Using certain assumptions in one settlement will give a result according to which there are tens of millions of advanced civilizations in the galaxy, but using other assumptions can lead to a completely different result - according to which there is only one advanced civilization in the galaxy. our culture.

Kurzweil, who bases his vision on technological expansion at an exponential rate, estimates that from the moment any intelligent culture spreads outside the planet on which it developed, it will take a relatively short time in astronomical terms until it fills the galaxy. The fact that we do not find any evidence of such civilizations, in his opinion, indicates that we are at the forefront of the technological race in the galaxy. If we are indeed the most intelligent civilization in the galaxy, then our galaxy could serve as an inexhaustible source of resources for the descendants of humanity, whatever they may be.

This is the place to point out that Kurzweil also claims that the biological organisms that created civilization will at some point be replaced by thinking machines that will surpass in wisdom and in every sense the biological beings that created them. This will be a turning point (which in his opinion will occur in 2045), which Kurzweil calls the "singularity", from which it is impossible to know what will be born one day. Personally, I'm afraid this is another good reason to hurry up and get off the planet...

There is no doubt that we still have a long way to go before we settle on other stars. The solar system contains only very few celestial bodies that are narrowly suitable for future colonization, and significant technological advances are still required before we can inhabit even small bases on the moon or Mars. Going beyond our solar system will be possible, if at all, only in the very distant future. But if we don't strive for this goal right now, with faith and determination, we may miss the small window of opportunity that is in front of us.