Ilai Rotbein, CEO of Autodesk Israel, suggests that instead of striving towards the automation of work and the replacement of humans with robotic systems, it is certainly possible to start thinking about cooperation between the human species and the robotic species. By joining forces, the abilities of both humans and robots can be upgraded and results that could not be achieved before
By: Ilai Rotbein, Director of Construction at Autodesk and CEO of Autodesk Israel
If we go to generalizations, then technological innovations are usually received with excitement and optimism (see the case of the arrival of the first iPhone in the world in 2007), but, these days, when we are at the very beginning of the next industrial revolution (the fourth in total), it is a bit difficult to ignore one innovation that succeeds discourage quite a few media consumers. And the reference to the "rise of the machine", and more precisely the accelerated development that the field of robotics is gaining and the fear of quite a few people who fear that robots will very quickly take their place at work.
And as in many other issues, in this case too there is more than one side to the story. True, the business is moving forward very quickly and already today we see quite a few roles in which humans are being moved aside in favor of robots. It is also clear that the phenomenon will increase in the near future, but, as mentioned, the issue is much more complex than one might think.
It should be remembered that technological innovation - like robots - also creates new jobs and often creates completely new categories of jobs. In fact, according to the World Economic Forum's Jobs Report, which examined the issue in depth, 65 percent of the children who enter primary schools today will work in professions that do not exist today
(https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs).
Let's think about it in the following way: the parents of a child born in 1900 could not have imagined that the offspring would one day become a car mechanic, but, when the child reached adulthood, it was already a sought-after and desirable profession. Parents of a girl born in the 50s of the last century could not think of a "software engineer", but, by the time she grew up, the profession of programming had become a mainstream occupation. And the children born today? It is hard to imagine what they will do in their adulthood.
So, what kind of future can we expect when robots are in the picture? It's hard to estimate, but there are quite a few pessimistic opinions in the area. It is always easy to see the half empty glass and ignore the half full one. In this optimistic version, it is interesting to look at the expected cooperation between humans and robots. In a most ironic way, the collaboration involves the 'bad' robot, the one that is supposed to steal our jobs - the industrial robot. These robots, with long arms and almost unlimited movement capabilities, the kind you see in movies about production lines in car factories, for example, have been with us for decades actually. And while they do advance in hardware over the years, the big innovations happen in the software field.
Since the software is the real 'brain' behind the operation of the robots, and it is getting more and more sophisticated, and becomes smarter and stronger, it also becomes easier for the humans to 'communicate' with them and tell them to perform actions that are becoming more and more complex.
The robots we see in industrial production spaces, for example, are designed to do one thing a million times - exactly, and they can persist in doing so until the power is cut off or the operation stops. But, we are also currently witnessing software that can teach robots to perform a million different actions at the same time. And that already breaks the rules of the game.
When we talk today about machine learning or artificial intelligence, we already see the other side of the coin and very clearly. Anyone remember Deep Mind's AlphaGo robot that defeated humans in the very complex GO game? To win the smart robot had to develop something that is very similar to intuition and this is probably the part that scares us, as humans and introduces us to a dystopian, post-apocalyptic, science fiction vision, in which the machine - the thinker - stands up to its creator. On the other hand, it is exactly the same 'intuition' that allows the robot to do what it must do, without receiving a direct instruction to do so. True, we still need to give the robot an instruction about what we want it to do, but, the robot thinks completely on its own how to carry out its task. What we are seeing and will certainly see in quite a few cases in the future, are situations in which smart software of similar types will introduce significant adrenaline to the capabilities of the known hardware. Something along the lines of Old robot, new tricks...
The exciting part of the whole story is that instead of striving towards the automation of work and replacing humans with robotic systems, it is certainly possible to start thinking about cooperation between the human species and the robotic species. By joining forces, the capabilities of both humans and robots can be upgraded and results that could not be achieved before can be achieved. The reason: humans are very good at seeing reality and making quick decisions based on field assessments. Robots are good at performing repetitive tasks that require high precision. If you connect the two ends, you can reach countless new possibilities.
Thought: Let's think about how technology has enhanced human ability in the last 50 years. One way of thinking leads in the direction that the accelerated automation and increased capabilities will slowly take humans out of the picture. But, the second reason says that it is true, we increased our capabilities, but, on the other hand, there was also in the background an increase in the demands on us. We can do things that we could not do 50 years ago, but we are also required to do things that we were not required to do 50 years ago. The whole process requires humans.
By enabling robots to perform more complex tasks, we will also open up the field of robotics to larger communities. It is easy for us to see robots in large industrial environments. But, what about incorporating robots into fields like art? architecture? Building?
And that brings us to the next point: another promising and fascinating field regarding the future of robots and humans, lies in the possibilities of combining robots with other growing technologies, such as 3D printing. Generally, 6D printed parts are relatively small and robots are large. If you manage to break through the boundaries and limitations of size, and think big, you suddenly enter completely new areas: houses? The result of the connection with new materials and the high precision, sounds exciting. For example, the MXXNUMXD company combines digital design technology, robotics and more traditional industrial production, for the benefit of XNUMXD printing of a bridge over a water canal in Amsterdam, while demonstrating how new horizons are being opened for the field of industrial printing in large format. Unlike the industrial robots that perform fairly routine tasks, such as welding or assembling parts, the new XNUMX-axis robots print metal in the air, practically from any angle and while advancing in the field.
It seems that the easier it will be to use the new systems, and the more financially accessible the machines will be, the more businesses, even small ones, will enter the field to create a host of new products at the same level of quality and precision previously only reached by larger companies. This is true for MX3D and also for other companies such as Local Motors, a car manufacturer that builds cars using micro-factories whose motto is that you no longer need to produce millions of units, or even thousands to be budget efficient.
Bottom line: the robots are coming and it's not going to be as gloomy and bleak as some are trying to portray the situation. Integrating robots into our productive lives has real potential to be something truly special. In this not-so-distant pink future, robots will become a very active part of our daily lives and without a doubt it is likely that we will ask ourselves, how did we manage without them, sometime in the early 21st century...
More of the topic in Hayadan:
8 תגובות
rival
I am sure that in 30 years you will be deceived.
Because whoever speaks from knowledge - knows. And you are not like that.
Miracles,
I imagine that in your message you mainly referred to section 2. In any case, I think that in 30 years you and many more skeptics like you will realize how much Kurzweil was on the ground, much more than you thought.
rival
Today, biological systems are much more efficient and much more reliable than any technological system.
Add to that - technological systems have a problem of "technological obsolescence". Would you surf the web with an IBM AT? So that super reliable heart (most of us bought at Walmart) will age long before it breaks.
Kurzweil can dream, but he should come back to the ground a little...
I have some reservations about what I wrote down yesterday, it's obviously not that simple, I'll explain later.
1. When robots reach the level of human intelligence (and probably far beyond that) they will be able to do any work that a person does (including building, programming and fighting) in a much more efficient, economical and fast way. There would be no logical or economic reason for people to continue working (referring to the fear of "job theft").
2. What will happen is probably a fusion of humanity with technology. People will gradually replace the parts of their biological bodies that are so vulnerable to disease and physical injury, with replacement parts that will be much stronger, durable and flexible. The physical brain will also be gradually replaced by powerful cognitive chips, piece by piece, until finally not a single biological remnant will remain in our body, basically we will reach eternal life.
At the same time, they will build sophisticated robots with intelligence and consciousness that will not have any biological component from the beginning. This will be the next generation of humanity, these will be the "descendants" of the last biological generation.
In my opinion, in less than 300 years most of humanity, if not all of it, will no longer be biological, those who decide to stay in their biological body will be left far behind.
The fact that I disagree with the guest, does not mean that there is no place to enrich the site with his articles.
Regarding the topic that the probability of a bad event is greater than the probability of a good one happening - it's just that the whole discussion of good and bad can exist mathematically and it does exist. Of all the scenarios in history there are only a few good ones. All others are therefore undesirable. Therefore the probability of an unwanted event is high because almost all events can go wrong. The good event - this is called in mathematics optimization or optimal control. Fortunately, whenever it is in the space of possibilities some kind of molecule passes through the best scenario. This is also called entropy - the system's tendency to disorder destroys structures. it's bad. There are processes that macro (not micro) oppose the principle of entropy: a DNA molecule, and a neuron network. These optimize super complicated problems. In mathematics, this is called non-convexity. There is a precise definition.
These with admirable tenacity, struggle with attempts to eliminate them and develop into something more self-aware. In the religious view, this is the tool of grace - those small miracles that happen every day. But mathematically - a network of neurons or DNA simply have survivability, against the law of entropy. Second law of thermodynamics. At the micro level the law is preserved - the process of survival needs large amounts of order. Animals prey on other animals and break them down. But the world is full of disorder, so it doesn't matter that more disorder is created. Because a stubborn evolution of a more and more self-aware system is created. That's the order. I didn't fall on my head. I gave an explanation of the struggle between "good" and evil in mathematics. And it can be formulated in a mathematical sentence that will be acceptable to mathematicians.
There is the possibility of a cyborg = upgrading a person by adding memory, adding neuron software for learning, let's say, flying, as if he always knew how to fly, and another addition of neurons to build new layers of consciousness. It will be the property of underworld billionaires as well. That is why most civilizations are fragile and do not survive. Bad is more likely to happen than good. As Simone Weil said, only one thing resists this gravity. Grace
There is no cooperation between unequals. The theory of interests = the theory of value. As soon as one species is created by another, distinctly smarter species, it will eliminate all the species that are closest to it. Homo sapiens wiped out the Neanderthal except for a few hybrids, and all species up to the chimpanzee. In Africa they also exterminate chimpanzees and gorillas.