where is the snow

Have you already started planning your next ski vacation? You better hurry, because the season is getting shorter: climate change is reducing the amount of snow in the mountains and is severely damaging the industry. So what can we expect this coming winter?

November 12 2018 Maya Falah, Angle - news agency for science and the environment

If you are tired of the Israeli summer, which refuses to say goodbye to us for good even towards the end of mid-November, it is likely that you are already busy fantasizing about snowy mountains. And if you're addicted to white, you're probably already planning your next foray to the slopes. Either way, you should get used to the fact that the dream of surfing at ski resorts is expected to become more difficult to achieve: climate change is also changing the skiing industry, and its results are already visible in many of the world's ski resorts today.

Until the end of the next century, the amount of snow is expected to be reduced by about 70 percent in the ski resorts in the Alps, so claimed researchers from Switzerland in a large study published in the scientific newspaper The cryosphere in the winter of 2017 and which presented how different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions would affect the ski resorts in the mountains of Europe. The researchers came to the conclusion that this sharp decrease in the amount of snow will occur if global warming is not limited to up to two degrees Celsius above the values ​​of the industrial revolution - that is, below the upper limit defined in the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The last winters certainly create the impression that we are already on the way to the realization of this negative scenario.

"Due to the observed warming, several things are happening that affect snowfall," explains Prof. Yoav Yair, Dean of the School of Sustainability at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center. "Among other things, the number of days when the temperature is below zero degrees Celsius in the geographical areas of the ski resorts decreases from year to year, so even if snow does fall in these mountains - they melt faster. This means a shorter ski season. There are reports that show that on some sites more than 2017 days were subtracted from the 30 season - it started late, and ended early. The snow itself also falls in smaller amounts and therefore does not accumulate, and the total thickness of the accumulated snow is lower - which makes it less reliable for skiing purposes.'

At the same time, adds Yair, there are noticeable changes in the tracks of the storms and the winter weather systems - especially in Europe, and these also affect the accumulation of snow in the mountains. "In recent years, the season started well - that is, with reasonable amounts of snow in the storms of November-December, but then prolonged heat waves and dryness caused the snow that had already fallen to melt," he says. "The situation was so desperate that some sites had to bring in artificial snow machines to cover up the early thaw. According to climate forecasting models, the continued warming will mean that the snow line will be higher in the mountains and leave shorter tracks, which will require additional investment in the infrastructure of the ski resorts.'

Artificial snow and canned snow
This situation will not only affect the skiers themselves. In countries with cold winters and suitable geographical conditions, this is a lucrative and significant economic branch - both in the field of tourism and as a sport. In the United States, for example, the ski tourism industry generates about 5.5 billion dollars every year. Similar to what is happening in the Alps, a significant decrease in the amount of snow and the length of the winter season is also expected in the USA - therefore the industry is expected to suffer considerable economic losses. In a 2017 study, the researchers predicted (according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, which are based on the projections of the International Panel on Climate Change) that the American ski industry is expected to experience losses of between 344 million dollars and 780 million dollars annually starting in 2050 .

The data from the research on the Alps shows that even if we manage to limit the warming to only two degrees (the window of opportunity open to him for this, by the way, is getting shorter), the amount of snow at the ski resorts in the Alps is still expected to be reduced by about 30 percent "only". The impact is already felt on the ground: compared to the 60s, for example, the winter season is shorter on average by about 20 days a year. This fact forces those involved in the craft to think of creative solutions to extend the season. Among other things, ski resorts use artificial means such as guns and snow cannons (giant machines that produce snow artificially by using large amounts of water) to save their source of income.

There are ski resorts that use "snow farming" to preserve the snow that falls on their territory. Some of these methods have already proven to be relatively effective: last year, for example, using a snow preservation method at a ski resort in Davos, Switzerland, made it possible to hold the ski season there as planned, in the months of October-May. With this method, at the end of the season, the snow that fell during the season is covered, in order to save it for the next winter. Among other things, the site used the technique of covering the snow on the mountain with waterproof tarps, or by spreading sawdust on the snow that accumulated on the slopes and spreading it up the mountain a few months later.

What is expected for the upcoming season?
"It is difficult to predict in advance what will be the nature of the upcoming ski season of winter 2019-2018 at the favorite sites of Israeli surfers, in countries like Switzerland, France and Bulgaria," explains Prof. Yair, "this is because seasonal forecasting is still not accurate enough - most of the atmospheric models that are used They are only about 60 percent accurate in predicting the nature of winter. In particular, it is difficult to predict the total amount of snow in only three to four months, so the prediction is statistical.'

Still, forecasts for this year already indicate that there is a 70-60 percent probability that this is going to be an El Niño year - a cyclical climatic phenomenon that causes the water surface to warm in large areas of the Pacific Ocean and that manifests itself in warmer weather than usual in some parts of the world relative to the average, as well as tending to more extreme events and more dramatic than usual. According to the forecast for the ski season, as of now, the coming winter will actually be relatively snowy in Europe and the Alps, while in most areas of the US it is expected to be drier than usual.

"If there is indeed an El Nino this year, the effect on the amount of snow depends on its intensity, which is not a constant thing," says Prof. Yair. "The last El Niño, for example, the one that occurred in 2016-2015, was the strongest in the 21st century. Usually, when it comes to a medium-strong El Nino, it manifests itself in winters that are colder than usual in Europe - but in about a month we will have to see how accurate the forecasts are this time.'

So what will fill our vacations in the future? It seems that skiing will become an increasingly rare pleasure, exotic islands may sink below sea level, and the attractiveness of the diving industry is expected to be severely damaged with the deterioration of the condition of the world's coral reefs. So if we still want to make sure that all these wonderful things continue to be a part of our lives - or at least remain a real possibility in our dreams of pampering vacations - maybe we should start taking climate change more seriously and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere by all the many means at our disposal and prepare today to reduce the many damages that are expected in the near future, closer than we thought.