The climate crisis has been felt in our area for years, mainly because of harsh winters. Although the current winter was unusual, it does nothing to change the picture. From now on it's not just our feeling when we go out on the street, there is now scientific proof. The new study demonstrates for the first time with the help of a computational model how changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can affect even within a few years the amount of precipitation in the Mediterranean climate zones. On the other hand, a reduction in the concentration of greenhouse gases will also bring back the rain within a few years
The Mediterranean basin and areas similar to it - California, central Chile and parts of Australia - are facing a decrease in the amount of precipitation due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but the change may be reversed quickly if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. This is according to a study published in the journal PNAS.
As we have seen in recent years, changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere affect the climate immediately, but the general assumption is that their full effect is felt only after decades or even hundreds of years. The new study demonstrates for the first time with the help of a computational model how changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can affect even within a few years the amount of precipitation in the Mediterranean climate zones. On the other hand, the study shows that if we reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, the water sources in the area may fill up quickly. The bottom line is that actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases can have positive effects faster than we think.
The decrease in precipitation can affect the water resources of the countries that live in these estuaries, which rely on a large amount of rain falling in the winter so that they have enough water even in the hot and dry summer.
The study, led by the University of Reading in collaboration with the National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAC, Bologna) and Imperial College London, reveals new ways in which climate change affects regions characterized by such a climate.
Observations and studies have shown that in most areas of the Mediterranean climate, less rain tends to fall as the Earth warms, with the exception of California. Areas with a Mediterranean climate, characterized by hot and dry summers, are known to be particularly sensitive to a decrease in precipitation in winter. As a result, they are often described as "hotspots" of climate change. However, it was not clear until now how information on how the rate of concentration of greenhouse gases affects the Mediterranean climate.
Lead author Dr. Giuseppe Zappa, who currently works at CNR-ISAC, said: "The effect of greenhouse gases affects several timelines, the accumulation of gas in the atmosphere can affect the local climate in sensitive areas within a few years, and a more significant effect such as a rise in sea level lasts for decades.
Now, simulations carried out by members of the group show that the reduction in precipitation in the Mediterranean Sea and in central Chile occurs rapidly at the same time as the concentration of greenhouse gases increases - on the order of a few years.
According to Dr. Paolo Cappi, from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College: Our findings imply that the water resources in these areas will benefit from stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases, such a stop, if realized, may stop the reduction of rainfall.
Although California is also defined as having a Mediterranean climate, the team notes that it responds differently to warming because of its proximity to the Pacific Ocean. Dr. Kafi explains: "The warming of the surface of the oceans is not uniform. In some areas the warming is faster than in other areas. The warming pattern created in the oceans affects the wind regime and the amount of rainfall around the world. "The areas in the oceans that are warming up more than average are causing changes in the global wind regime and drying out the Mediterranean areas. California, on the other hand, is affected by areas in the ocean that warm more slowly, so the effect of warming on the amount of rain in winter is less."
More of the topic in Hayadan:
The effects of climate change are more severe in the Mediterranean basin
The drought in the Eastern Mediterranean - the worst in the last 900 years (2016)
Warming in the Mediterranean (2005)
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Miracles,
Thanks for the quote,
And yet, I haven't seen a graph...
If you want to estimate the likelihood that there is indeed warming in Israel as well, a temperature graph over time is a good start,
With the method of starting to count years according to different categories such as years without rain, years with the hottest July, etc., you can prove any theory you want.
On the other hand, making a fit to a straight line on a graph is something with a known and clear statistical probability.
I get the impression that there are a great many studies that have accepted the assumption that the temperatures are rising steadily and the assumption that they will continue to rise... without providing any evidence... and immediately jump to develop different theories for secondary effects, which are supposedly caused by the warming,
And this is already a metaphor for building towers in the air...
You should listen to predictions but also monitor whether there are contradictions in the evidence over the years. Perhaps extreme phenomena can be seen as evidence of the greenhouse effect. I have no doubt about the global greenhouse effect. And I read the forecast for the Middle East. It is probably worth listening to the scientific models.
There have been rainy winters for the past five years. We do not have enough empirical evidence to support the theory.
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From the Jerusalem Post:
According to the recently published Meteorological Service Report, the average temperature in Israel has already risen by about 1.4 degrees Celsius since 1950 and is expected to rise by another 0.9-1.2 degrees by the end of 2050; meaning that a rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius is expected within 100 years.
- An increase in the frequency of the number of hot days and nights is expected per year, along with a decrease in the frequency of cold days and nights - an existing trend that is expected to continue.
Can someone direct me to a graph that shows global warming in Israel? Hundreds of articles on the subject, but I've never seen a graph?
Ed
How exactly do you propose to refine the models? I understand that you are an expert in the field - we will all be happy to learn from you.
How did the research work? On what basis do they claim that our area will hurt more than California, except for a statistical test of a few years?
It seems to me that the summer of 2018 will also be rainy.
All the predictions of the global warming deniers seem to be coming true.
Yes, my father, also in the winter of 2022 and further to Ed's previous conclusions, it is possible to eliminate the use of statistics as well as the stupid theory of global warming and all the data collected in the last 40 years (fake data) and now we can rely only on Ed's feelings and change the models so that they fit the forecast The weather for the coming years that he posted here…
Was winter 21 rainy?
It seems to me that the winter of 2019-20 was also quite rainy. The winter of 2020-21 was certainly rainy. There is no reason why this will not be the case in the coming years as well, since it is precisely because of the heat that evaporates in the summer that the amount of water in the atmosphere is greater.
The models must be perfected.