A new study published in NATURE shows that there is an inverse relationship between water consumption for agriculture in India and rainfall in Africa and other unexpected effects of this type
Dr. Assaf Rosenthal
The "butterfly effect" - a theoretical example taken from chaos theory, according to which the flapping of butterfly wings in one place in the world may create small changes in the atmosphere that will eventually cause the appearance of a tornado in another place. New research published in NATURE Shows that the way in which humans influence the climate is much more complex than previously thought and in a way quite similar to the butterfly effect.
The research shows that when farmers in India adopt effective irrigation methods and thus reduce the evaporation of water from their fields - the drought periods in East Africa are prolonged. The evaporation in the agricultural fields in India causes moisture which is the source of about 40% of the rain that falls in East Asia. As farmers in India move to sustainable agriculture by reducing groundwater use, herders and farmers in Africa suffer.
A decrease in the amount of rainfall in East Africa affects the way of life and migration processes. According to the researchers, this is a process that already exists and is increasing.
Such connections between human activity in different areas are not expected, not understood and most of them are unknown, therefore it is important to study them and take them into account if you want to be prepared for the "shock of the future". "There is a need for a remapping of humanity's demands from the earth in order to avoid environmental risks" write the researchers "The environmental changes will affect everyone's lives, considering the speed with which the changes are happening there is an urgent need to understand them so that it is possible to respond efficiently and with a future vision."
Another connection the researchers found is between materials used in aquaculture in Asia and the Sahel in Africa: the immediate local damage is manifested in the spread of diseases and damage to beaches and mangrove forests. The damage to the mangrove forests causes air pollution that "migrates" to North Africa and harms the Sahel, the arid region south of the Sahara desert receives less rain and the warming harms crops such as sorghum/sorghum and farm and pasture animals. According to the researchers, in the case of the Sahel and since the desert is spreading, the inhabitants of the Sahel will have to adopt crops resistant to drought and heat or alternatively "will be forced to abandon the territories". The researchers conclude with a statement and a warning that: "It is not necessary that the environmental dangers will lead to the worsening of the situation". It is important to emphasize that there is room for surprises that will arise as a result of "the blossoming of other unexpected relationships that will lead to unexpected results".
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I have personally seen strange behaviors both in people and in dogs and cats, the weather also affects the vegetation, flowers grow out of their season as well as trees, and it is very true that we humans affect the weather which reacts in extremes, the truth - it is quite disturbing and scary.
To "responder" Jacob:
Your first comment is correct because:
There should be a dry area south (not north) of the Sahara,
As for the rest of the "audit":
It is indeed appropriate for you to be "sorry" because:
- there is a reference to the source,
- If "it seems to you" that an article in Nature is "absurd"
You are welcome to try and refute,
- Later you wrote "as far as I know", it turns out that you don't know
(to the east of Africa lies the Indian Ocean),
- Later you "guess", well, no guesses
can be conjured,
Indeed: "strange"...
There is actually a link, a link under the words "an article published in NATURE
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0327-x
Sorry. At best it's a bad translation but also careless. How is there an arid region north of the Sahara when the Sahara ends in the north of Africa. How is the rainfall in East Asia related to East Africa?
The original article is not here, but everything seems to me to be completely absurd.
The rains and clouds in Africa as far as I know originate from the ocean. I'm guessing that all the moisture in India contributes less than a million to them, and that's when most of the moisture in India doesn't come from agriculture. Moreover - this is not about the effect of human activity, but rather about its cancellation. As if before the farmers irrigated India there was no rain in Africa.
Strange strange strange article.
Well, it's not exactly the butterfly effect. The butterfly effect demonstrates how a tiny and practically immeasurable change dramatically affects the final result - within the possible "solution space" of the system. That is, instead of a storm in Nebraska on Tuesday, there will be a storm with different characteristics two weeks later, and maybe some chaos scientist who watches both models will be able to link the storms, somehow.
In the case before us, we see how a systematic change (preventing evaporation in India) (not a very small one) changes the system itself and moves the "solution space" to another place - where rain is less common in Africa and the dry season is longer. The simple fact that the scientists were able to verify this in their models and give a logical causal relationship between the two demonstrates that it is not the butterfly effect, but a change in the climate system itself.