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The summers are warmer - not just what we think

A climate researcher from Columbia University showed that compared to the average temperature of 1951-1980, there is a shift in the summers. There are hardly any cold summers or even close to the mid-20th century average. Every summer now is either hot or very hot. Prof. Yoav Yair: Europe is showing clear signs of the realization of climate change predictions

Increasing the Mediterranean area in the forecast map for the effect of warming.
Increasing the Mediterranean area in the forecast map for the effect of warming.

Avi Blizovsky

New data from James Hansen, a climate scientist at Columbia University, and formerly at NASA, demonstrates how temperatures in the country have risen over the past decades. Extreme temperatures are just one of the many effects of climate change, but fortunately, many countries and organizations are putting initiatives in place to help solve the problem.
With the help of his colleagues at Columbia University, Hansen collected decades of temperature data and put it into a variety of charts and graphs illustrating the change in global temperature.

According to Hansen's data, 15% of the summers between 2005 and 2015 fall into the category of "very hot summer" - a category that did not exist at all in the 1951s, while the number of "hot summers" (not very hot) has doubled compared to the base period (1980 to 33 ), from 66% to 20%. This means that every summer in the past decade has been either warm or very warm compared to the mid-XNUMXth century.

Todd Sanford, director of research at Climate Central, told the New York Times that the findings show that changes in the average that seem modest have large consequences for society and ecosystems." He also claimed that this upward trend provides "a glimpse of what is expected in our future".

"July 2017 in Israel was probably the hottest since measurements began. For those who claim that there were such things in the past, it is possible that there were but certainly not as often as we feel today and not in these intensities. You can hide your head under the blanket and say it doesn't happen, but the reality is that it does happen." Says Prof. Yoav Yair, Dean of the School of Sustainability at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya in an interview with the Hidan website.
"All the countries located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are considered a Climate Change Hot Spot - an area where climate change is already having an impact. Only recently there was a drought that had not been seen in 60 years in Rome, which caused them to stop the flow of water in the fountains. About a week ago, strong forest fires occurred in France, and a week before, fires raged in Spain and Portugal." Prof. Yair explains.

The climate models predict the spread of the desert belt to southern Europe. For example, the equatorial flow cell (Hadley cell) spreads north and south, therefore the desert belt that sits below the descending branch of the bucket cell moves north. If previously the border of the desert was the Sahara - latitude 28-29, the desert conditions - that is, dryness and heat - are slowly spreading to more northern areas that have never been there. Among other things, this caused a series of severe droughts in the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. As a general rule in the entire Mediterranean basin, areas that used to receive a lot of water receive much less."
"There is a study from 2015 that shows that the last drought in Syria of 2014-2015 was the worst in 900 years and this led, among other things, to the collapse of the central government due to the geopolitical instability. The results of climate change are visible in the field, this is not a forecast for the future. see it To some extent also in Israel. The level of the Kinneret and the level of the Dead Sea at low tide, the amount of water in the Golan Heights and in the north of the country decreases at a slow but continuous rate. My deep concern is that these are irreversible trends, it's not like once in the Bible after seven bad years come seven good years. We will no longer get the seven good years - there will be bad years and worse years."

What should be done to stop, if at all possible?
"We need to do what we promised we would do, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and switch to renewable energies one hour earlier. Don't wait for 2030. Countries like India and China have taken the bull by the horns - they are big polluters and heavy users of fossil energy - and are already starting to take practical and extensive steps to switch to clean energy."
The goal of the Paris Agreement is not to reach the point of no return above an average warming of 2 degrees. If it is likely that the climate system will change in a way we are not familiar with - the melting of the ice caps and the rise in the level of the surface of the oceans. These in turn will cause changes in the flow of the oceans which will then cause changes in the synoptics of the pressure systems - creating a sort of chain reaction. Because of this, it will be difficult to predict its results and give an accurate prediction of what the distribution of precipitation will look like thirty or forty years from now in a situation where there will be no ice caps in the summer - it is complicated because there are mechanisms of feedback between the natural systems and the human systems."

"There are many prophets of wrath who say that the human race will suffer and not survive - of course we will survive. We are an adaptable species and will find technological and other solutions to deal with these changes. However, contrary to the laws of physics - the law of conservation of mass or the law of conservation of momentum - unfortunately there is no law of conservation of suffering, many millions of people will suffer in the future from these changes related to droughts, food security, water security, areas where it will be impossible to live in and then there will be massive waves of immigration. It will be bad for many people, but humanity will not become extinct."

 

for the scientific article

The study predicts severe heat waves in Southeast Asia

 

17 תגובות

  1. for miracles
    1. I did not invent anything, these claims are the claims of those you call "deniers" if you listen to them or read what they write, you will hear it yourself.
    2. The silencing of scientists "not in consensus" is a well-known and unfortunately common phenomenon in the scientific community which is heavily affected by ego and competition for prestige and honor and not always in the pursuit of scientific truth, - see for example what they did to Prof. Dan Shechtman when he dared against the scientific consensus to propose the existence of a pentagonal crystal. (And there are many more such examples.)
    3. The changes that exist today are 0.12-0.17 degrees Celsius, in ten years!!! A hundred degrees a year... and it is not clear whether this trend will increase or not in ten years from now.
    4. The "nonsense about the trees" is from a scientific article that was once published.
    As part of this "nonsense", scientists examined fossils of trees in the equatorial regions and measured their rings according to this, they deduced the growth rate of forests in ancient times (wide rings, accelerated growth, narrow, little growth, and so on) checked dating according to radioactive carbon, and compared it to measurements of concentrations of The PADH in the air found in the drillings in the glaciers until (the glaciers have air bubbles and there are also annual rings that make it possible to date the age of these bubbles and thus know what the PADH concentration in the air was many years ago).
    These stupid deniers took the data from the glaciers and thus matched the concentrations of PAD with the growth rate of the rainforests, and connected it to a stupid theory that shows that there is a balance between the growth rate of the forests and the PAD concentrations in the air - that is, as the PAD concentration increases, the forests grow larger and then also They absorb more PAD and probably also lower its concentration in the air.
    I remember it was very convincing science, published years ago, and the conclusion of those stupid scientists was that there is such a natural cycle, and the problem of global warming today is more due to deforestation than due to the emission of PAD from industry. And if they let the forests grow back, they will be able to regulate global warming...
    Therefore, according to the fools, the Kyoto agreements that deal only with reducing emissions are not the right/only way to address the problem.

  2. my father
    And now for the nonsense before that...
    To say that climate scientists who deny warming are being silenced is impudence and stupidity!!!
    No one silences scientists. Tell me, what planet do you live on? Any idiot who denies global warming gets way more media than the real scientists!

    You also started telling a little about trees. Where did you come up with this nonsense?

  3. my father
    First, let's eliminate the last nonsense you said...
    The changes in the past happened over tens of millions of years. The changes today have been happening for decades. Evolution does not deal with that.

  4. Regarding water desalination.
    Water desalination can be carried out using alternative energy methods - wind turbines, solar energy...
    With the help of water desalination, plants can be grown in arid areas.
    Plants carry out photosynthesis and reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere... so desalination can indeed cool the earth.
    post Scriptum:
    Regarding photosynthesis - after all, at the beginning of the earth all the carbon that exists in the earth today in the form of oil and coal was in the atmosphere in the form of CO2 - the earth was not so hot that life could not exist and it did not turn into Venus as we are predicted, plants developed, photosynthesis took place, the concentration of PAD in the air decreased and reached For balance, the balance is between the amount of plants and the amount of CO2 emissions, when the concentration of COXNUMX increases, more plants grow, more algae in the sea (anyone who has experienced growing an aquarium of aquatic plants enriched with COXNUMX knows the phenomenon, the more COXNUMX bubbles in the water, the bigger the plants grow Fast. Plants convert the PAD in the air into sugars (photosynthesis) and the PAD concentration decreases.
    PAD concentrations in the air were measured by drilling holes in glaciers and that's how we know what the concentrations were in the past, from the rings of the fossilized trees we know their age and their growth rate at those times, studies conducted in the forests of the Equator on the equator proved this theory that in periods when the PAD concentration increased the forests would prosper and vice versa A balance is created.
    PADH was emitted into the air due to forest burning and volcanic activity even before the industrial age.

  5. 1. What they didn't explain is how such a small difference in global temperature (of 0.2 degrees per year or 0.02 degrees per year...) causes such large differences in the weather to the extent that people feel this difference.

    2. The problem is that among the so-called "deniers" there are also real scientists who have different explanations and are silenced by the consensus. Unlike their creationists there is no alternative scientific theory, the "global warming deniers" (or rather those who reduce the extent of man's influence on the phenomenon) have other scientific theories on the extent of man's influence on the issue and more importantly on how to properly handle it.
    And what has been proven beyond any doubt (at least at the political level) is that the Kyoto/Paris agreements are not the right way to handle this, nor is the brainwashing they are trying to do to the public on both sides.
    So maybe if they replace a diskette it will be possible to think of the right way to solve the problem.

  6. Hagai
    Forgive me - but you talk a lot of nonsense.
    1. We should be in a cooling off period now. Cooling is when the temperature drops. Please don't make up ice age stories.

    2. Prove very well the connection between warming and the concentration of PAD in the atmosphere. And they also proved (even better) that the person is the source of this PDAH.

    3. The statement that the sun is a nuclear reactor and therefore has no effect on the FDF is simply stupidity incarnate. Sorry, no offense but someone has to tell you this!

    4. Water desalination only worsens the warming. In Zynga!

  7. As usual, the problem is not necessarily in the data but in its interpretation.
    It is possible that the summers are indeed hotter and it is not a question of a change in the methods, quantity or location of the measurements (measurements inside cities are different from measurements at sea).
    But is this caused by greenhouse gas emissions? Maybe it was even caused like all ice cycles and warming (and remind you, we are still in the Holocene - should continue to warm before entering the slow decline towards the next ice age). Maybe it was caused by sun storms? Maybe it was caused by another reason?
    They failed to prove well the connection between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warming. There were periods when there was more PDH in the atmosphere and wonder and wonder, they were not warm.
    Lift your head up to the sky and you will see a huge nuclear reactor called the sun. The Fdah is a comma of a comma. Its effect is null in sixty.
    What is happening because of this stuck? that instead of investing in ways to deal with the heat that will rise and with the drought, invest in nothing in pita - in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    Now, don't get me wrong. Clean air is great. But if this money was invested in, for example... desalination of water, creation of reservoirs, improvement of technology, etc., then the problems would not be as big as 40 years of PADF research did not solve at all.

    So Padiha, get out of your paradigm already and act like scientists - find a solution that can be proven and that will really help.

  8. Why is it important to listen to the global warming deniers more than the evolution deniers? Just because they have money that can buy the members of the US Senate? A fruitful scientific debate is made between scientists.

  9. Hugin, are you back?
    I didn't quite understand how the pollution of the earth due to the activity of the tycoons will help us reach a new level of consciousness?

  10. Global warming is an increase of about 0.2 degrees in ten years.
    On the other hand, there are harsh summers (differences of several degrees from year to year) and there are also very cold and harsh winters...
    And things are not necessarily related to each other.
    The Kyoto Agreement and the Paris Agreement did not bring results and did not cause a reduction in emissions, neither a change in the concentration of GHG nor a retreat in global warming and this shows that they are bad agreements and the direction is wrong.
    In short, it is not so clear and not so clear from Elio that global warming is the cause of the harsh summers and extreme weather, nor is it clear that the Kyoto/Paris agreement is the right solution.
    It is important to continue to investigate the issue in all directions, it is therefore important to listen to the other side and have a fruitful scientific debate with them, and not to call them "deniers" and ignore them, and it is important to understand that the Kyoto/Paris agreement is a bad agreement and
    which only causes more harm than good. (like many other Dream UNs)

  11. "However, contrary to the laws of physics - the law of conservation of mass or the law of conservation of momentum - unfortunately there is no law of conservation of suffering"
    Is that so?
    There are laws that are perceived by 5 senses and there are other laws that we do not have the tools to perceive.
    Does that mean they don't exist?
    What are we actually in this article? that humanity is expected to shift gears when it comes to suffering.
    But that's only a part. There is another part - globalization.
    These two parts only make our planet more threatening.
    And where will all this lead us?
    to a new paradigm. A new method that will raise awareness to another level.
    And what is the trial about?
    In that the same place that until today we called uncertainty and were afraid to approach. With the new tools that we will open, by upgrading our inner selves, we will achieve, literally in the senses, another layer of the same reality that until now we have experienced in 5 senses.
    In other words, research will begin to focus not on the external object but on ourselves.

  12. Definately not
    When the facts contradict your belief then you prefer to call the one who discovered the facts a liar.
    Really mature.

  13. Since when were the summers cool here in 95 when the humidity was 1 percent short for whom do you come to work to sell this swag this summer here with the exception of the 00's and 70's it was always hot you live in a movie

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