The damages of warming will remain with us for at least ten thousand years * The Ice Age has been postponed by 50 thousand years

A punch in the stomach: two recently published studies present a worrying picture: a study by the University of Wisconsin-Madison published this week in the journal Nature predicts that in a scenario where carbon emissions stop only in the year 2300, the temperature will rise by an average of seven degrees compared to today and the sea level will rise by 25-50 meters * An article by researchers from Germany shows that global warming so far has already caused a delay of at least 50 thousand years in the next ice age

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Avi Blizovsky

Climate change projections for a hundred or two hundred years point to a rapid increase in temperature and sea level, but say little about the bigger picture. In a new forecast for the next 10,000 years, it was found that the catastrophic effect assuming that the carbon emissions will continue for another 300 years, the high carbon levels and their damages will persist thousands of years after the emissions stop.

The picture is troubling, says one of the study's authors Sean Marcotte, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, referring to the almost inevitable rise in sea levels over the next millennia.
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Most of the climate predictions that have been made so far end no later than the year 2300. "Because that's the time period that most people are interested in," says Marcotte, an expert on glaciers and ancient climate. "Our idea was that it doesn't capture the impact of adding five trillion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere over the next three centuries. While most studies look at the last 150 years of data and compare it to predictions for the next few centuries. We looked back 20,000 years using recently collected samples, global temperature estimates and sea level data since the end of the last ice age. We then compared the past data to predictions 10,000 years into the future. "

Climate - the interrelationships between the land, the ocean and the atmosphere - has a long memory, Marcotte says. "I think most people will tell you that temperature and sea level will peak as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, but once we stop burning, they can drop back down. In fact, it will take thousands of years for the excess carbon dioxide to completely leave the atmosphere and be stored in the oceans. The effect on sea surface temperature will last just as long. "
The researchers examined the effect of four possible pollution levels of carbon between the years 2300-2000.

"The concentration of carbon is increasing, and even if we stop all emissions in a relatively close period, the system will continue to react because it has not yet reached equilibrium," explains Marcotte. "When you boil water and turn off the burner, the water will stay hot because of the heat that remains in it for some time. A similar but far more complex and fatal phenomenon occurs in the climate system." said.

If emissions stop in 2300 and by then the rate of emissions will increase at least as much as today, in 2300 the sea surface temperature will rise by seven degrees, but after ten thousand years it will drop by barely one degree. According to the forecasts, by the year 2300 the level of carbon in the atmosphere will jump from 400 parts per million to 2,000 parts per million. In our model, the carbon emission stops in 300 years but its effect will continue for at least ten thousand years in the future." Marcotte said.

The warming of the atmosphere and oceans is already causing the melting of glaciers which have created a catastrophic rise in sea level that will affect at least 19% of the Earth's population. "We must commit to preventing this for our descendants."
According to him, the melting of the glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will cause a huge rise of 80 to 170 meters and drown all of Florida and the east coast (and our coastal plain).

The ocean is warming and the atmosphere is already melting glaciers and glaciers to produce a catastrophic rise in the ocean. "The sea level will rise due to melting, and because of the warming the ocean is expanding. We have to decide in the next 100 years if we want to commit ourselves and on behalf of our descendants to bigger and longer lasting changes," Marcott says.
Peter Clarke and his fellow writers first author thought and found that ocean encroachment only the lowest level of carbon pollution including will affect land in sleep 2010 resides 19 percent of the Earth's population. However, due to the momentum of the climate, according to will stretch over a thousand years.
"This is amazing research," says Jack Williams, a geography professor and past climate expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It reinforces a point we already knew: that the effects of climate change and sea level rise are irreversible and will remain with us for thousands of years," says Williams, who did not participate in the study. "But the study shows how devastating sea level rise will be after 2100.

For simplicity, the study authors omitted other major effects of climate change, including ocean acidification, other greenhouse gases, and other mechanisms that accelerate warming even further.

Marcotte added that the latest slogan of the climate activists "keep the carbon in the soil" is true. "In the ideal situation this is what should be done, but I can't say whether it is economically or politically sustainable."
The research shows that we must move to a balance in carbon emissions or even a negative balance and we only have a few more decades to do so." says Williams. The forecast for sea level rise put forward in the study is a real punch in the stomach."

For the announcement on the University of Wisconsin website
for the scientific article

The ice age was postponed

Maya Falah, Angle - news agency for science and the environment

Scientists from Potsdam University in Germany (PIK) claim to have succeeded in deciphering the conditions that cause ice ages to occur. Understanding the conditions also allowed them to predict that human activity likely caused the next ice age to be delayed by at least 100,000 years.

In an article published this month in the journal Nature, the scientists claimed that the next ice age was supposed to arrive in a maximum of 50,000 years, but that increased greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialized world, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and causing a higher than normal concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, will cause it to be postponed by 50,000 Additional years at least - and maybe even more.

When will it be cold here?
An ice age occurs when a relatively low amount of radiation reaches the earth from the sun even in the summer. The rest of the period is characterized by low temperatures due to which large areas are covered with ice surfaces. In the last million years, ice ages of 90,000-80,000 years in length occurred alternately, during which considerable parts of the earth were covered with ice, including the continents of North America and Eurasia (as also happened in the last ice age, which ended about 11,700 years ago). Between one ice age and another were separated by intermediate periods of 20,000-10,000 years in which temperatures rose and allowed the continents to thaw.

As part of the study, the scientists examined the conditions that led to the last eight ice ages and found that their occurrence was due to deviations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, along with a certain concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This understanding allowed them to run complex models simulating the conditions on Earth's surface and its orbit around the Sun, and using them to predict when the next ice age would occur.

The scientists realized that another ice age was supposed to start about 200 years ago, just before the beginning of the industrial revolution, but the carbon dioxide concentration of about 280 parts per million in the atmosphere, which is higher than usual, prevented its beginning and naturally delayed it by about 50,000 years. The current concentration of carbon dioxide, which is more than 400 parts per million, indicates, according to the scientists, that human activity will cause the ice age to "skip" an entire geological cycle - something that has not happened in the last million years.

Sound like good news? So that's it, no. The ice ages are part of the normal cycle of the earth and are of great importance in many and varied processes that occur on its surface.

In an announcement by the University of Potsdam about the research findings, Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, president of the university and one of the authors of the article, said that the ice age affected the conditions of the earth and human civilization like no other force of nature did. For example, the last ice age resulted in the development of fertile soil that allowed the beginning of agricultural settlement.

This research is important because it proves that human activity in the past and present has a substantial effect on processes in the distant future as well. These findings oblige us to stop and ask ourselves what other things we are causing, when it is already clear that due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases we have caused countless changes that we did not intend to make at all, and more than that - are we willing to risk the consequences of these changes?