The future of the Nile following an agreement between Ethiopia and Egypt on filling a dam upstream

Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan recently reached a draft agreement between them in which terms and conditions for the operation of the Renaissance Dam are agreed upon. The essence of the agreement is that Ethiopia will fill the reservoir with water in stages over a ten-year period. The filling will only be done during the rainy seasons, which will moderate the lack of water in Sudan and Egypt. Now it remains to be seen whether Egypt will be satisfied with Ethiopia's promises that in dry seasons they will release water from the dam down the river, and of course the question remains how the eight other countries upstream of the Nile will behave.

I previously wrote about the dam And also about the possibility of damage to the Mediterranean Sea. The Egyptians are rightly afraid that during the filling of the reservoir, a process that will last several years, the flow in the river will become a trickle and also afterwards the flow in Sudan and Egypt will decrease due to diverting water to Ethiopia.

In a recently published study there is a forecast that clarifies the danger of lack of water in the entire Nile basin and mainly in its lower part.

The longest river in the world flows through 11 countries and its drainage basin covers 3 million square kilometers, which is about 10% of the surface of the African continent. In the countries: South Sudan, Sudan, Egypt, Uganda and Ethiopia there are about 250 million people who depend directly on its waters. Almost all the rains that fall and feed the Blue Nile and the White Nile fall in the upper (southern) part of the river. Its lower (northern) part receives little rain, so Egypt and Sudan are completely dependent on the river's water, a dependence that will increase. This is despite the fact that according to climate forecasts towards the end of the century the amount of rain will increase by 20%, since the increase will be in the upper part of the drainage basin.

According to the forecast that is published: "The warmer climate will cause periods of drought even though more rain will fall", these conditions will occur at the same time asA sharp increase in population density, which is estimated to double by the 50se, because of dry seasons and because of an unequal distribution of resources. The increase in the population will increase the water shortage despite the increase in the amount of rainfall. Even today, about 10% of those living in the Nile's drainage basin suffer from a chronic lack of the essential resource. According to the survey, in 2040, in the years when temperatures and rainfall will be average, the number of people suffering from a chronic lack of water will increase.

Hot and dry weather conditions will damage agricultural crops, reduce the flow in electricity generating stations, reduce the supply of water to people and industry and increase the social tension that already exists due to the distribution of resources. In 2040, during the dry seasons, 45% of the 110 million people in the Nile drainage basin will suffer from the harsh conditions and lack of water. Even without the development of harsh climatic conditions, the increase in population will cause an extreme lack of water in the upper parts of the river. The combination of climate change and population growth will adversely affect the complicated and tense socio-economic and political situation among the 11 countries in the Nile drainage basin.

While the countries upstream are trying to find a way to pump the quantities of water that will ensure their well-being, down the river Egypt and Sudan are trying to claim a historical right to control the flow in the river, at a time when agriculture is the main source of livelihood for many of the inhabitants of the countries in Africa in general and the Nile basin in particular. The combination of dependence on agriculture as the first source of existence and the political instability, lead the region to the danger of lack of water and food.

For the purpose of the research, it was necessary to understand how frequent the dry and hot years would be despite the slight increase in rainfall. To this end, the researchers examined data on the climatic fluctuations in the history of the upper reaches of the river between the years 1961 and 2005. In addition, they used models that would make it possible to estimate how the precipitation and temperatures will change in the coming decades, it was found that in the last four decades the frequency of hot years has increased and the forecast is that this is a trend that will probably continue, a trend that will cause conditions similar to the years in which crops were damaged due to climate conditions, an injury that caused a lack of food and social and political crises . The frequency of hot and dry conditions towards the end of the 21st century will be greater than in the past, if in the past such conditions occurred on average every 20 years, then in the future there will be hotter and drier years every 6 to 10 years. Not only the incidence is increasing but also the conditions will become more and more difficult, meaning that the difficult conditions will become a common and normal situation for the people in the area. Heat waves will increase by 2 to 6 degrees compared to today, which will cause severe strain to people, farm animals and agricultural crops. The researchers calculated the number of people who would suffer from a lack of water based on the estimation of the amounts of water that would flow in streams and rivers and be available to people. In calculating the basic per capita consumption, it was found that despite the slight increase in the amount of rainfall, due to the hot years, the amount of water that will be available for the residents of the area will decrease by a lot.

Like all over the world The drainage basin of the Nile is also warming And again, despite the forecast for a slight increase in the amount of rainfall that due to the increase in temperatures, the dryness will increase. It is possible that the combination of dryness and large changes from year to year in the amount of rainfall is due to the forecast forThe intensification of the cycles of "El Nino" and "El Nina" What causes "whiplash" - Extreme and sudden changes in the weather. In areas where dry years are replaced by torrential rains quickly and without prior warning.

The researchers write that although the world has enough food to feed its inhabitants, there is an essential need to ensure an equitable distribution of food and water even for those who are unable to "reach" sources of water or food, a situation that will get worse and worse, therefore the first step required of the countries of the region is to create a situation in which there will be A fair and just allocation of water that will not be based on "historical rights" As Egypt and Sudan claim The division should be based on the needs of the countries upstream, such as South Sudan and Ethiopia. A joint organization of water distribution between the countries of the region will contribute to resolving arguments and frictions that may lead to violence, such as the current situation in which Egypt and Ethiopia are approaching conflict due to the construction The Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, the dam will reduce the amount of water that will reach Egypt and to prevent violent friction a strong organization is needed that will provide guarantees for a fair distribution of the Nile water.

The researchers write that although water is often a cause of friction, there are examples of sharing andAn example is the water agreement between Israel and Jordan "In a future world where there will be more people and less water, the countries in the Nile basin will have to cooperate to ensure the best use of resources, to store rainwater in wet seasons, in a way that prevents floods, and to distribute the water equitably in dry years." Finally, the researchers warn that: "If the governments of the region fail to cooperate, the result will be disastrous."

And I will add that it may not be a coincidence that the research is being published now. After in previous years a severe drought prevailed in large areas, which damaged crops, farm animals, people and wild animals. In Zimbabwe, Kenya, Somalia, South Africa, Angola, Ethiopia and more, agricultural fields and natural pastures dried up and the stench of animal carcasses prevailed in large areas. Whereas 2019 was a "blessed" year with unprecedented amounts of rain, rains that caused floods and mudslides that caused the death of hundreds of people and severe damage to infrastructure.

Many of the descriptions and conditions also fit our corner. We also have bad years versus blessed years, but it turns out that in too many cases a blessing for the water sector turns into a curse for people in the communities that were flooded. Despite the geographical and climatic proximity, we are not in Africa and it is appropriate that the authorities learn and internalize that the "curse" can, rightly and appropriately be used and turned into a blessing by properly building infrastructures where the water is absorbed and penetrates the ground and does not flow in the streets. By creating reservoirs in the drainage basins that will prevent floods and rivers from overflowing their banks. The water that will seep into the ground instead of flowing through the streets will enrich aquifers, the reservoirs will be used in times of drought and will come to the water system in Eretz Goel.