to feed the world in a time of crisis

The global corona crisis provides us with an opportunity to think about the future of food supply in the world in the face of climate change and extreme events

By: Ran Ben Michael, Angle - Science and Environment News Agency

As a result of the Corona panic, long lines were formed in the food chains. On the shelves it was possible to notice many shortages - mainly of dry food and canned goods. Along with the immediate challenge posed by the corona virus, it also provides us with an opportunity to think about preparing for crises that may come in the future in the field of food supply.

According to the World Hunger Index, which examined the situation in 2019 countries in 117, there has been some improvement in the global hunger average, but the picture is not uniform and in some countries the situation is actually getting worse. Along with wars, violence and economic crises, the number one reason why more people suffer from malnutrition is extreme weather events.

Heat waves, huge fires, storms, droughts, floods and torrential rains destroy agricultural areas and damage crops. The frequency, intensity and duration of the extreme events are increasing and they translate into economic damage of which agriculture is a main component. In July 2019, for example, farmers in the central United States (an area known as the "farm belt") experienced a sequence of extreme weather events, which damaged the main crops: soy and corn.

Not only the basic food is affected. The heat wave in Europe last summer is expected to reduce wine production in France by 12 percent. During some of these events, transport infrastructures are also damaged (for example flooding) and the food does not reach the markets, a fact that obviously affects its prices.

The waves that hurt agriculture

A study by an international team of climate scientists, published in the latest climate change issue of the scientific journal Nature, examined for the first time a climatic phenomenon that until recently was difficult to test: the effect of "Rossby waves" on the occurrence of heat waves.

"Rossby waves" are waves that affect the jet stream - the stream of atmospheric air moving from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, delaying its movement or changing its position. According to the new study, these effects increase the chance of the occurrence of heat waves, resulting from climate change, in several places at the same time. The risk of extreme heat waves occurring in these places is up to 20 times greater if two types of Rossby waves occur at the same time, which could damage the crops produced there and the food supply. The more these events occur in the places known as the "bread basket" (the western regions of Europe, Asia, Russia and North America characterized by high agricultural production) the blow will be more severe and the drop in yields may reach up to 4 percent on average for all affected areas and even up to 11 percent for a specific region .

In a study by a team of scientists from the University of Oxford (which was also published in the issue of climate change), an analysis was made of the risk that wheat, corn, soy and rice crops - the four main crops in the world, which provide about two thirds of the average calorie consumption - will be affected by extreme changes in temperature and precipitation. With the exception of rice, the study indicates that the risk of crop failure does increase with the change in these variables. The study also sheds light on the connection between such a failure and political tensions, for example the increase in food prices that began in 2007 and contributed to the "Arab Spring" events and a wave of violent socio-political upheavals in our region.

The virtues increase and the food decreases

Long-term processes are also affected by the change. Thus, for example, the melting rate during the summer of the Himalayan ice caps, which are a source of water for agriculture that feeds about 800 million people in Asia, is double in the last twenty years compared to the melting rate between 1975-2000. As a result, the flow of water in the rivers is increasing today, but over time the resulting deficit may harm agriculture and the production of electricity from hydropower in these areas. According to NASA, the farm belt in the central USA is going to pass in the near future in more frequent forms that will last for longer years.

According to a scientific paper by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Beijing University, an increase of every 6 degree Celsius in global temperature will reduce the yield of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice by an average of 7.4, 3, 3 and 8.5 percent respectively by the end of the century in the scenario The most stringent emissions (RCP18) total crop could be reduced by at least XNUMX percent. It is important to note that these changes are not uniform and the effect varies between different crops in different geographical areas. In fact, not only the volume of the crop will decrease, but also the nutritional value of the crop that will succeed in ripening.

In August 2019, the International Panel on Climate Change published a special report on the climate and land crisis. The report dealt with the ways in which changes in land use - clearing forests, pastures, agriculture, urbanism, etc. - adversely affect the condition of the land and greenhouse gas emissions. About 100 experts from 52 countries painted a bleak picture of humanity's ability to meet the goal of slowing warming by the end of the century, below the threshold of two degrees Celsius above the average temperature in the pre-industrial era, if these changes in land use continue as usual.

The global food system contributes at least a quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions - mainly the change of natural land use to agricultural or grazing, from raising cattle and other livestock products to the production of meat and other animal products, from rice crops (which emit methane gas) and the production and use of synthetic fertilizers - and the report indicates that the expected warming from a business-as-usual scenario could result in an ongoing global food crisis.

produce more from less

so what are we doing? The main adaptation step is to increase the efficiency of agriculture so that every unit of land and every input (water, fertilizer, etc.) will be utilized and lead to a greater crop yield. Another step is to rely on crops that demand less resources: chicken versus beef, or legumes versus rice. It is also possible to expand the basket of species used in agriculture (the human species mainly relies on only about ten crops out of thousands of edible species), invest in technological developments in the field of precision agriculture and genetic engineering, and adapt the variety of crops to the changing reality. Converting agriculture to an environmentally friendly one that also supports biological diversity (agro-ecology) is an important move, especially the integration of practices of maintaining the extent of the land and its productivity. The most difficult move of all, it seems, is changes in the food consumption habits of consumers.

"Israel is still not preparing for a crisis emergency in the food sector," says Dr. Tomer Simon, an expert in disaster management. "This is not only a national issue, because of the dependence of the local economy on food imports, but international cooperation and the conclusion of contracts with other countries in case of emergency will also be exposed to the global crisis situation and will not necessarily provide the required response. The climate crisis requires us to prepare a coping plan, because unlike certain sudden events, such as an earthquake, the public is unable to deal with a food supply crisis. Such a crisis is characterized by long-term effects, so the preparation for it should include solutions on a similar scale."

"So, for example, Israel is placed very high in the global water scarcity index - therefore improving its water system, for example by capturing surface runoff, which does not penetrate into the aquifers due to the concrete and asphalt covering in the built-up area, is a starting point," adds Simon. "Another step is the allocation of crops and seeds to emergency warehouses, and the prioritization of local agriculture as a sector that supports such a crisis situation, because it is not certain that we will be able to rely on the emergency warehouse in the North Pole, which is also in danger due to the climate crisis. Along with these, technological solutions for food should be encouraged, such as the supply of laboratory-grown meat, alternative solutions for protein, and reducing food waste, along with regional cooperation in the field."