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Is there a date for the next great extinction?

Scientists from Cardiff University have developed a model that shows that the solar system passes through the plane of the galaxy every 35-40 million years, and that this period is accompanied by meteor showers and in some cases also by mass extinctions * We are in the middle of the attack

A spiral galaxy with a central bar NGC 1300. Similar to the Milky Way. Photo: Hubble Space Telescope
A spiral galaxy with a central bar NGC 1300. Similar to the Milky Way. Photo: Hubble Space Telescope

We have known for decades that the solar system moves within our galaxy and makes a huge rotation for 220 million years. Where do we pass in our vast galactic journey, and what are the consequences? What are the areas we cross on the Great Journey, and how do they affect our solar system?

Scientists from the Cardiff Center for Astrobiology believe they have succeeded in answering this question, but the results are not encouraging. The researchers created a computer model that describes the movement of our solar system. The model matches the group's predictions and reveals that the solar system passes through the plane of the galaxy in a cyclical manner, similar to a yo-yo that passes a certain point over and over again - once from above and once from below.

Unfortunately it turns out that the galactic plane is not a safe environment for our fragile solar system. As we pass through the densest region, meteors and comets are deflected from their orbits and plunge into the solar system. Some of them, inevitably, collide with our planets, including the Earth. The idea itself is not new - back in 1998, other researchers in the field (Leitch & Vasisht) determined that at least two mass extinctions from the past correspond to the movement of the solar system through the spiral arms of the galaxy. The Great Extinction 65 million years ago corresponds to the passage through Sagittarius-Carina, and the extinction from 225 million years ago corresponds to the passage through Scotum-Crux.

The current group of researchers found that we pass through the galactic plane once every 35 to 40 million years. In order to provide further proof of the model, they reviewed the time records of large craters on the surface of the earth and discovered that there are indeed periods in which the frequency of impacts on the earth increases tenfold. These periods come once every 36 million years. From the analysis of the set of known craters and the position of the sun in relation to the plane of the galaxy, the researchers came to the sad conclusion that we are currently in one of the major bombardment periods of the solar system.

An asteroid hits the Earth. Imaging - NASA
An asteroid hits the Earth. Imaging - NASA

There is no doubt that the great bombardment periods pose a threat to all life on Earth. Our previous encounter with Sagittarius-Carina wiped out almost all the dinosaurs, along with 57% of all land plant species. At the same time, the researchers claim that it is possible that the periods of transition through the plane of the galaxy allow the exchange of life forms between the gas clouds and nebulae and the Earth. Bacteria and other single-celled organisms are carried on splashes from the collisions. Those splashes become comets, which are able to leave the solar system at that time and spread the tiny seeds of life into the nebulae and clouds of dust and gas that fill the galaxy. According to the theory of panspermia, the truth of which is still in doubt, life arrived on Earth itself from meteors and comets that collided with it. Many researchers in the field do not accept the idea that complex life can survive in outer space for a long time, and certainly not for a period long enough to colonize other stars.

Professor Chandra Wikramansingh, director of the Center for Astrobiology and father of one of the authors of the study, says that, "This is an important study that firmly establishes the interaction between comets and life, and reveals a mechanism through which life can be interpreted on a galactic scale."

Whether the panspermia theory is true or not, Professor William Napier calls for an increase in the investment of funds in the search for near-Earth bodies, and to invest more thought in the way we handle such bodies.

"There are two areas where I think we are deficient," he says in an interview with the Hidan website. "First, the inner solar system is almost unexplored in the sub-kilometer range, and I think many comet fragments exist there. Second, we need to look for black bodies - inactive comets - that we may not be detecting with our current search methods. They should be detected by the infrared detectors of satellites."

It is important to mention that the bombardment period lasts approximately four million years, so the meteor impacts are distributed over a very long time. On the other hand, since according to the researchers we are already in the period of the great shelling, the danger facing us may be greater than we realized in the past, and we must prepare ourselves for this possibility. If caught off guard, it could bring about the end of the human race.

The research was conducted by Dr. Janaki Wickramansingh and Professor William Napier from the Cardiff Center for Astrobiology, and it will be published in the scientific journal - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

For information on the Cardiff University website

16 תגובות

  1. I'm the only one who noticed how disturbing the picture named... it's a really big object that's something like 1 part 100 of the size of the Earth...
    Considering that the largest crater is in the Gulf of Mexico and a bit of South America... indicates something smaller than 30 kilometers...
    (Not that it will cause so little damage)..which probably destroyed our dear dinosaurs...so I think the size is reasonable enough that in less than 100 years technology will come..hoping we don't annihilate ourselves in wars of course...we will have a solution to this problem.

    Until then, statistically, if I'm not mistaken, several medium-sized objects with a diameter sufficient to hit Hiroshima should hit...something like what happened in Russia at the beginning of the last century, etc...

    In any case, something here mentioned 2012...as far as I know...the Incas were not the only ones who calculated this date...and although I don't remember which other culture calculated it (not neighboring on the same continent)..admit that it is a little disturbing...that some cultures calculated the Same date..somewhat strange isn't it?

  2. You're ignoring the problem I'm talking about-
    If the sun moves in a plane different from the plane of the galaxy, then it will cross the plane of the galaxy twice every cycle. If a cyclical phenomenon occurs with a higher frequency, a different reason should be found.

  3. There is apparently no connection to the Malacca plane, the earth is very close to it and its crossings are done in a period of months and not millions of years. In my opinion, the meaning is that the sun orbits the center of the galaxy approximately in the plane of the galaxy, but this estimate is inaccurate enough that most of the time it will be above or below the galaxy.

  4. Question: Who can explain to me what force can cause the solar system to oscillate around the plane of the galaxy?
    Although the solar systems in the galaxy can basically move chaotically since the structure of the galaxy is unstable (the mass of the center is very small in relation to the mass of the galaxy), but this does not explain cyclical movement either.
    Does the Earth also oscillate around the Milka plane?
    This is possible if KA is affected by the cycle of other planets.
    Is this the explanation in our case as well?

  5. A person:
    Comets are meteors for everything and they are everywhere in the universe. It is true that near suns of various kinds they boast a larger tail, but all in all, if a meteor with the right composition wanders around the galaxy and crosses its path from time to time, then when it enters the solar system or - God forbid - its son - it will look like a comet to everything.

  6. We are already in the midst of the great extinction
    Ever since the crazy monkey came down from the tree
    He is like a virus that destroys everything
    And turns everything into batteries

  7. charming:
    The chance of meeting a comet in the plane of the galaxy is higher than the chance of meeting a comet outside the plane of the galaxy and it is clear that as you move away from the plane you reach sparser regions. Even if the amplitude of the comet's oscillation is taken into account - there are more comets that frequent the range of +- 10 degrees than those that frequent the range of +- 30 degrees, if only because all the comets that pass between +- 30 degrees are also at +- 10, while the opposite is not true.
    It seems to me that now you can understand that what you described as your opinion contradicts what I think is your knowledge.

  8. Aria, I think you're delusional.
    The nearest "Sun" star is close to us, far enough away that the hypothesis sounds completely absurd.
    By "Alpha Centauri".

    There is also another theory is that the Mayans calculated at the time that in 2012 (the day their calendar ends) the sun will cross the galactic plane.

    It also sounds absurd, because how did they know that galaxies exist?
    Maybe they didn't know. But maybe according to the Milky Way seen on clear nights they calculated something, but I doubt it, because it is very difficult to see any change in our angle in relation to the plane of the Milky Way. (If you even know it's a plane.)

    The theory of the aforementioned scientists also sounds relatively weak.
    Because even the comets themselves shake in relation to the plane of the galaxy. So the chance that we will actually meet them in the middle and not in the amplitude far from the plane, is not smaller than the chance that we will meet them in the plane itself.

    But that's just my opinion.

  9. In a similar matter: does anyone know if astrophysicists today favor the nemesis hypothesis?
    The Nemesis hypothesis also explains the cycle of mass extinctions in the existence of another sun in our system which is a double star, except that the system has an eccentric orbit that today we are in a situation where the second sun, known as Nemesis, is at its greatest distance from us so we do not notice it. When Nemesis approaches it affects the comets in the Oort cloud and throws some of them into our environment.

  10. Yes, but... can't we just check our current location in the galaxy and verify or disprove the whole thing??
    In any case, due to the developments of the last 100 years, and due to natural and unnatural disasters that befall the human race, and the eve of the next war, it doesn't really matter if there is a barrage (asteroids) of one kind or another within a 4 million year range..

    And I will end on an optimistic note - probably more asteroids than usual are in the area and it will be possible to study them. The sun (and justice 😉 ) has a greater chance of being hit than the blue ball.
    Besides, google earth must be updated in case of damage 🙂

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