Two atmospheric researchers examined three major climate models and all of them indicate that the ice in the summer will melt almost completely in the Arctic region. The debate between the models is only about the question of when it will happen, and the answer is pessimistic in any case
For scientists studying the summer ice in the Arctic Ocean, the question is not if it will be nearly ice-free during the summer, but when? Two scientists who studied the issue say that this 'when' will come sooner than many think - before 2050 and maybe even in the next decade or two.
James Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory and Moyen Wang of NOAA's Joint Institute for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research at the University of Washington examined the three methods for predicting when there will be almost no summer ice left in the Arctic Ocean this summer. Their work was recently published in the online journal Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Society.
"The rapid disappearance of sea ice is probably the most prominent sign of global climate change. This mass leads to a change in the ecological environment and the economic approach and ultimately, also on the weather patterns in the entire northern hemisphere" says Obland. "Deepening the understanding of the physical aspect regarding the climate changes in the Arctic region and improving the models are required to give a more detailed picture and also a more accurate schedule as to what is expected of us so that we can be prepared and adapt ourselves to these changes. An early loss of the Arctic ice will cause the urgency of dealing with the issue of climate change."
"There is no single perfect way to predict the loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean," says Wang. "That's why we examined three approaches, each of which gives a different date, but all three show that almost all the sea ice will melt in the summer before the middle of the century." Overland and Wang emphasize that the term "almost ice-free" is important because some ice is expected to remain north of the Canadian Archipelago and Garryland.
The 'trendsetters' approach examines the trends in the ice cover. These data show us that the total amount of sea ice has decreased rapidly over the past decade. Using this trend to estimate the almost complete loss of the sea ice estimates that the melting date will be in 2020.
The second approach - stochasters is based on the evaluation of many future scenarios but random in time, in which years will be recorded in which there will be little ice in the summer, as happened in 2007 and 2012. This approach estimates that it would take several such events to reach a nearly ice-free ocean state in summer. Using the likelihood of each such event, this approach suggests 2030 as the target year, but with great uncertainty as to the timing.
The third approach - the modelers approach, is based on using a large collection of climate model results to predict the long-term conditions of the atmosphere, sea, land and sea ice. These models showed that the earliest year of sea ice loss would arrive around 2040 when the concentration of greenhouse gases would increase and the Arctic region would warm.
However, the median timing of sea ice loss in these models is closer to 2060. There are several reasons for this. "Some people may interpret this median as if these models are not useful. On the contrary," says Overland. "The models are based on chemical and physical climate processes and we need better models for the Arctic Ocean as the importance of this region continues to increase."
Putting all these approaches together, the range still shows a high probability that the timing of summer sea ice loss will occur in the first half of the 21st century, with the possibility of a fairly large loss in the next decade or two.
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I am Kurdish
This is exactly the difference between us... I have already waited 30 years (and more...) and I see the change.
All the bodies that understand the subject say the same thing - the emission of greenhouse gases by man causes the climate to warm. The theory also says so, and of course the measurements as well.
And there are all kinds of charlatans who think they know better. Fortunately, they are a negligible minority.
Miracles,
aware.
Experience in weather forecasting has existed for thousands of years, and yet, with all the modern equipment available, no one can predict weather beyond a few days, and not everywhere.
Predicting changes in the climate is a new science with no experience at all. What people are trying to do is draw conclusions based on the behavior of the climate in the past few years. But, please Kurds, we'll see each other in 30 years and we'll see.
Please Kurds
Are you aware that climate and weather are different things?
Regarding weather forecasts and political forecasts, I only trust predictions about the past. Professor/doctor titles do not impress me. I see the ship stuck in Antarctica that went there with great confidence based on the predictions of "experts", and this was a prediction only for a few days, not for 50 years. The difference between politics and weather, in politics it is possible to analyze in retrospect "where we went wrong" in the weather, this is not the case either.
=
I don't have any formal education in meteorology, and every year I do a weather forecasting competition with the meteorological station, and overall, on an annual basis, I always manage to predict better than them.
So the professionals will forgive me, it will probably take many more years to learn it.
I sent the link brought by safkan to Professor Pinchas Alpert whose role today is:
Pinhas Alpert,
The Mikhael M. Nebenzahl & Amalia Grossberg
Chair Professor in Geodynamics
Head of the Porter School of Environmental Studies
Department of Geophysical, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Tel-Aviv University
He corresponded with another friend who is involved in the field and below is the reply they sent me:
the recent DECREASE over the past few years is actually very dramatic.
The record was broken last year, I seem to remember.
One expects some year-to-year variability, so not every year will be record breaking.
"growth of sea ice from last year" is nothing but very silly and is simply because last year there was a very dramatic decrease.
I like to follow this here
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Particularly revealing is the following figure:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
Thanks Nissim. I am discouraged by these numbers engineers, who see everything as kosher in order to deny something that they see with their eyes.
And as I suspected The Daily Mail is a tabloid. If it was the Guardian I would be worried.
You can of course find a reverse quote
Last year, the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean shrank to a record low. This year's melting season won't be as extreme, but NASA scientists say the long-term trend is moving strongly downward.
This year's melt rates are in line with a sustained decline of the Arctic ice cover, which has been monitored by NASA for several decades.
In the 1980's the ice cap was about the size of the lower 48 states. It's lost about half its size since then and scientists now say we might see an ice-free Arctic in 30 to 50 years.
Let's assume that the ice cover decreased by 90% and after that increased by 100% ... should we continue the example???
It's more or less the numbers game that the daily mail did... (I hope the example is simple enough).
It can be trusted just like the figure that there was no warming for 17 years because of the oceans that appears in the green blog. The Earth for some reason does not read these articles.
What's more, even if this is true (and I doubt it, because there is also an issue of the volume of the ice and not just the area it covers - that is, the thickness of the layer), still no one has said that the warming is something linear and every year should be worse. It is enough to see a multi-year trend (and not in the green blog but in the real data) to be convinced that there is warming.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html
Gloomy news for the global warming scaremongers.
It turns out from satellite photos taken in August 2013 that the ice in the North Sea this year increased in area by 60% compared to its flatness in August 2012. (60% according to a cursory reading, don't take my word for it if it's a little less or a little more).
As I said, the contraction and expansion of arctic sea ice is very volatile. There is no meaning to the scaremongering of the greenhouse people based entirely on this volatility. Note again: there has been a 60 percent increase in Arctic sea ice in the past year, all in just one year, such volatility knocks the ground out from under the greenhouse's terrifying feet.
The Daily Mail jokes about the possibility that the global warming scaremongers will announce this year that we have moved into the Carrera era, instead of the Greenhouse era. Namely: the climate scaremongers will announce that due to human actions we will soon enter a new ice age.
Azoulay
I suggest you check out several articles. There is the article by a journalist if there is a stated agenda (mentioned above) and there are many articles by independent research institutes.
You choose your sources……….
Azuli
Don't be moved by the criticism directed at me. Claims I make are not biased by political considerations but try to be objective and well-tested. On the other hand, the owner of the website, Avi B. There is a determined agenda that there is catastrophic global warming, he presents his words in obedience to this agenda even if there are serious doubts about it.
My response is based on an article and I provided a link to the article (among other things, I provided the link so that they would not argue against demagogic claims about right-wingers and the like as was done here). Anyone who has substantive claims is welcome to debunk them, by referring to facts that contradict what I have presented.
When instead of referring to the facts that contradict my words, they start shouting "right-wing newspaper right-wing newspaper" it looks very bad, especially if the argument "right-wing newspaper right-wing newspaper" is repeated over and over again instead of bringing contradictory information.
I gave the link and according to what I checked, these are now my claims about the layer of ice in the Arctic sea at the time of my response - they are verified facts based on records of an American federal authority (and in addition, they are supported by the findings of a Japanese research laboratory whose nature I do not know). There is no reason to assume that an American federal authority is controlled by the American right. Even the satellite cameras that photograph the ice, on which the claims and records are based, are not "right-wing" cameras, they are cameras of what they see.
As for the fluctuating nature of the ice sheet in the arctic sea - which facts are known and not at all disputed. The arctic sea is partially covered by thin and crushed ice, during the winter the amount of this ice increases, with the arrival of spring some of the ice melts, in the fall the melting slows down, in the winter after that fall the aforementioned ice layer begins to accumulate again, and God forbid. In a particularly hot year the ice melts more in the summer, in a particularly cool year the summer ice melts less. In addition to the above, there is also a strong influence of warm sea currents that sometimes penetrate the Arctic Ocean, water currents seem to also melt some of the ice in the Arctic Ocean. Not enough is known about ocean currents except for one proven fact: this flow is multi-year, for example ten years there is an increased flow followed by 20 years of reduced flow. The relationship between oceanic flow paths and climate change is unknown.
Don't know what scientists claim in their theories. But if they continue to claim that the Arctic Ocean will become free of glaciers despite the facts I mentioned - there is a place to check if the scientists are the type who won't let the facts spoil their theory.
For miracles. I'm not a scientist and I'm not one who pretends to understand global warming, but with all due respect to the researchers and their degrees, such as the respected climate professor you brought up, because we were already in the movie where a very respected scientist and a professor who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry twice, pursued our Prof. Shechtman , for his theory of quasi-periodic crystals, which in the end turned out to be a breakthrough and won our Prof. Dan Shechtman the Nobel Prize. So one has to be careful in cases that are not conclusive even in the opinion of respected professors, until it is proven beyond any doubt that there is indeed global warming and that there are side effects to this warming.
Safkan's "reliable source" is a right-wing reporter without any relevant education in the field (to be precise: I couldn't find it)
Regarding the authors of the article:
James Overland is a professor of climate science.
Moying Wong is a doctor of climate science.
Everything that adds subtracts...
A skeptic, I am satisfied with what is written in the various tones of the economic right, they are early in denying the warming and marked the goal around pressure.
Damicolo's research contrary to the latest findings from the last few days. According to recent findings, the amount of ice in the Arctic sea is the largest since 1989.
Arctic sea ice records only began in 1979, when satellite tracking began. It turns out that the amount of ice there is very fluctuating, in the first decade of the observation the mass trend was increasing, in the last decade there are sharp fluctuations up and down, in the last year there has been balding of the arctic sea and it has returned to the ice level of 1989.
opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/15/lawrence-solomon-arctic-sea-ice-back-to-1989-levels-now-exceeds-previous-decade/
The researchers were quick to eulogize the Arctic Sea, perhaps because they did not expect that within a few months the data on the ground would prove their predictions to be nonsense.
Amount
opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/15/lawrence-solomon-arctic-sea-ice-back-to-1989-levels-now-exceeds-previous-decade/
It's interesting that all the global warming deniers are suddenly silent....
Suddenly the National Geographic programs about those preparing for the "end of the world" are no longer so delusional, as delusional as the thing is...