The annual publication of the Earth's average temperature data by NASA seems to be far-fetched in light of the cold in Europe and the USA, but even the cold month of December does not interfere with the statistics * The forecast - the year 2010 may be warmer due to El Nino
2009 was the second year at the Wall since the record began. This is according to an analysis of the surface temperature conducted by NASA. The analysis carried out at the Goddard Institute for Space Research (GISS) in New York also showed that in the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year since measurements began in the 19s.
Although 2008 was the coldest year of the decade - due to a strong cooling of the tropical region in the Pacific Ocean, 2009 experienced a return to the line of warm temperatures that characterized the decade. The year that passed was only a fraction colder than 2005, the warmest year in a decade and equal to a respectable backlog of warm years - 1998,2002,2003,2006, 2007, XNUMX, XNUMX and XNUMX as the second year in the wall since the temperature measurement began.
"This annual NASA report that reviews the global temperature in numbers and rankings is always interesting, but often one that misses the point. ” says James Hansen, director of the GISS. "The year-to-year variation in the average degree of heat is due to the El Nino cycle in the tropics, but when we average the temperatures over five or ten years to average out this variation, we see that global warming is not stopping."
The decade between January 2000 and December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. During the last three decades, the GISS data show an increase of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. Since 1880, there has been a clear warming trend, although it was on hiatus between the 20s and XNUMXs.
The near record of 2009 came despite an unusual cold wave in most of North America and Europe. Atmospheric pressure in the arctic regions decreased the flow from west to east of the jet stream, and increased the tendency for winds to flow from north to south that cooled the air south to the arctic regions. The result is an unusual effect that caused the frozen air from the arctic regions to descend south and the air in the middle latitudes to rise north.
"Of course, the area of the 48 continental states of the USA is 1.5 of the Earth's surface, so the temperature in the USA does not affect the global temperature" says Hansen. Overall, the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1880. "This is a number that must be remembered," said Gabin Schmidt, a climatologist at GISS. "In contrast, the difference between the hottest year and the sixth year in the wall is in the range of the background noise of the measuring devices, which is greater than the differences between the warm years."
An explanation of the causes of the increase and decrease in temperature and their effect on the average
Climate scientists agree that the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the other greenhouse gases that trap the heat near the surface of the earth are responsible for the increase in temperature, but these gases are not the only factor that can affect the global temperature. The other components - including changes in solar radiation, temperature fluctuations at the sea surface in the tropics and changes in the level of aerosols - can cause a minimal increase or decrease in the temperature of the surface. Overall, the evidence shows that these effects do not affect the general trend of global warming since the 19th century.
According to him, El Niño and La Niña are prime examples of how the oceans can influence global temperature. They cause the sea surface to be warm or cold (respectively) in the South Pacific Ocean as a result of changes in ocean currents.
Global temperatures tend to decrease during La Niña years, which occurs when cold deep water from the depths rises up around the coast of Peru and spreads westward in the equatorial region. La Niña, which moderates the effect of greenhouse gases, took place in the first months of 2009 and paved the way for El Niño, which began in October 2009 and continues into 2010.
A particularly strong El Niño cycle in 1998 is likely the cause of the high temperatures that year, and Hansen's group estimates that there is a chance that 2010 will be the hottest year on record, if the El Niño phenomenon continues. The cycle of La Niña and El Niño affects the global temperature by 0.2 degrees.
High temperatures on the surface also tend to appear during the active phase of the solar cycle - the solar maximum, and slightly colder during the trough in activity - the solar minimum. A deep solar minimum has made sunspots rare in recent years. Such a low in solar activity, which may result in the amount of energy emitted by the sun being reduced by a tenth of a percent, generally pushes for a 0.1 degree decrease in the average temperature of the Earth's surface. In 2009 it was clear that even the deepest solar minimum in recent decades could not stop the continued warming," said Hansen.
Small particles in the atmosphere called aerosols can also affect the climate. Volcanoes are a source of particles of sulfur compounds that moderate the warming by returning solar radiation back to the sea. In the past, eruptions such as that of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines and El Chicon in Mexico caused drops in the temperature of the earth's surface on the order of 0.3 degrees, but the eruptions in 2009 did not affect the overall picture.
Meanwhile, other types of aerosols produced by burning fuel can change surface temperature by reflecting or absorbing sunlight. Hansen's group estimates that the aerosols reduce about half of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases emitted by humans, but claims that it is necessary to better study these elusive particles.
For information on the NASA website
More on the subject on the science website
7 תגובות
What is still not clear in the whole issue of global warming, is how scientists allow themselves to check a temperature range of only a few decades and conclude that there is a constant increase in temperatures? There is no record of temperatures from ancient centuries, and taking a ten-year segment from the KDA temperature graph, which continues over millions and billions of years, and further inferring from that the general derivative of the graph - this is "a little" unscientific.
And I'm not here to support any side, I just remember that in the 70's we were still told that the world was cooling - Global Cooling was the consensus theory. Where did she go?
Father, you are a good soul
But she is fooling herself
And now you are misleading
start questioning authority
to me
http://www.the7eye.org.il/science_and_pseudo_science_in_the_media/Pages/191209_Just_a_Conspiracion.aspx?RetUrl=/WRITTERS/Pages/Yaki_Menschenfreund.aspx
And if you didn't understand, I said it sarcastically.
say father
How do you call anything that is not in consensus with the word nonsense and on the other hand make a marginal claim like "the breach was financed by Russia" in one breath?
What is the meaning of the term "worldwide average temperature" if the variation is so great? Why is this term even used? What is it good for? Except for creating headlines in the media that confuse the masses who understand nothing from everyone on this subject.
Tomer, despite this nonsense of Climate Gate, a hack financed by Russia, which is an oil and gas exporter, still from the position of global warming,
The debate is like the debate between the scientists and the creationists in the field of evolution. In both cases, these are theories that are in consensus and proven, the opposition to which is irrational.
What's more, if you ask me between computer hackers and NASA, I prefer NASA as a reliable source.
Unfortunately we have learned not to accept any "scientific fact" as something that cannot be disputed. There are interests here too even though we have to save air and environment pollution regardless.
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3811566,00.html