Water - we are not alone

A report by the World Economic Forum in Switzerland proves that many countries are dealing with the lack of water by various means, such as purchasing land in countries that are rich in water but also need employment for their residents

Dominic Waughray, who serves as senior director of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, recently wrote an analysis of the global water problem. The analysis does not claim to be "literary", but a collection of facts and their analysis. Readers are invited to find the differences between the global problem and our "private" problem.

In 2008, Saudi Arabia stopped supplying its wheat consumption. In order not to be dependent on external suppliers, the Saudis are trying to purchase land in the Horn of Africa and Pakistan. - China is purchasing agricultural land in the DRAP for similar reasons. - South Korea is buying land in Madagascar, other countries in South Asia and the Persian Gulf are considering a similar activity. None of these countries need territories for territorial expansion, they need something fundamental and basic... food. In all cases what stimulates the initiative is a lack of water.

The experience of the above countries can be seen as an early experience of what will happen elsewhere. The trend is a result of the emerging water crisis. The failure of governments and international bodies and the failure of the international trade system, expose the world to water struggles in the years to come.

When the supply capacity drops from 1,500 cubic meters per year per person, the country must import food, especially products whose production consumes a lot of water. Like Saudi Arabia, about 20 other countries have also dropped from the 1,500 m14 threshold, and about 2030 more countries will join the "club" by XNUMX.

The problem is not only a lack of water, as in China and South Korea, so are the countries of the Middle East, Asia and many other rapidly developing countries whose economies are growing, countries that must choose whether to direct water to agriculture or to cities and developing industry. The challenge and the question of where to divert water arises when the state diverts over 40% of renewable water sources to irrigate agricultural fields. - In the event that "business continues as usual" in 2030, South Asia will reach the 40% threshold, the Middle East and North Africa will reach 58%.

When the dilemma of water distribution arises, agriculture almost always loses to the industrial economy, mainly to productive branches and energy generation. If the current trend continues until 2030, the demand for water will exceed the supply capacity. About 2.5 billion people in countries where industrial and economic development is rapid, in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, will have to look for water-rich areas to obtain food.

The reasons for the problem of water supply for agriculture are varied. For years there was unrestrained waste, a waste that led to the depletion of underground reservoirs. As the standard of living increases, the tendency is to consume more meat, which will create a need for more water. An attempt to reform the water sector / agriculture is considered political suicide. And the last reason, international trade is not adapted to the development of agriculture and food supply.

Global agriculture consumes about 70% of the global water supply, agriculture that has been subsidized for years, that is, the water for agriculture was subsidized, water given to farmers at minimal prices and hence...waste.

More than a quarter of India's crops will be at risk by 2025 when wells are overutilized and therefore run dry. Already today 10% of the water is supplied from non-renewable sources. A lack of water will cause 350 million tons of crops to be lost, an amount similar to the annual grain production in the US. By 2050 the demand for food will increase by 70-90%, but more than 25% of the demand for grains will be due to a change in eating habits, not only due to population growth. A typical meat eater consumes about 5400 liters of water per day, double the amount of what a vegetarian consumes for food of the same nutritional value. World meat production is supposed to double from 229 million tons in 1999 to 465 million tons in 2050, with most of the increase in Asia. Although the consumption of grains is increasing, the countries that are developing and growing the most are diverting more water from agriculture to urban settlements and industry. And thus intensifying the problem.

In order to develop water-efficient agriculture, government intervention is needed, changing "historical" conventions, correct pricing and technology implementation. Changes that most politicians prefer to avoid.

There is no match between places suitable for agriculture, and places where food is grown. Three of the ten largest food exporters in the world have a water shortage. Three of the ten largest food importers in the world... are rich in water.

The trade in agricultural and food products does not satisfy the growing demand, therefore food prices are volatile and unstable. But mostly immigrants. Without a bold correction in agricultural policy and a correction in the world trade system, the global food supply system will collapse.

Land for water deals seem logical today but since the problem is on a global scale a global solution is needed. In the case of "business as usual" in 2030 there will be a doubling and tripling of countries trying to close land deals for water. Rich countries that lack water will compete with each other for territories in water-rich countries. The competition between countries for water-rich territories will cause a rapid retreat from the globalization of the 21st century to the bilateral system of the 19th century, trade alliances that will lead to political complications.

The fight for water has begun, governments must respond. The consequences of inaction will be profound and severe.

So far the translation of Dominic Wagari's words (almost word for word), the things are presented as facts without any attempt to write or embellish for the sake of the readers. To make it easier for the readers to compare the global situation with our "local" problem, it is worth going over things that have been written (Bath Hidan) for many years, or alternately read the words of Uri Shani from the Water Authority, who recently said: "According to the models that we conducted, the chance of a cold winter was 2% -5%, that's why we didn't make harsh decisions, we didn't imagine that the months of January and February would be completely dry."

In other words, Mr. Shani, did you not understand where you were? Don't you know that half of the State of Israel is a desert? While an investigative committee is sitting on the dais, the interrogated and those who took their place continue to answer questions and act as if they don't understand where they are, like? Maybe they really don't understand? Maybe it's really their ignorance? Or maybe what determines the direction of action or lack of action is pressure from stakeholders that causes the "decision makers" to see only as far as the end of their nose / seat? In the past I already wrote:They live in the desert and act like they are sitting on the shores of a Swiss lake".

To the document of the World Economic Forum describing the water crisis

Additional articles on the subject on the science website:

• Mapping the world's water problems
• In the face of the water crisis
• Water is the oil of the 21st century
• Chairman of Mekorot: The water crisis is the most difficult ever