The safari ports provided Kenyan farmers with predictive ability for the onset of the rainy season. The warming disrupted their behavior and left the farmers with the weather forecast broadcast on the radio - in languages they do not know
We (at the science site) continue to debate how much the temperature will rise and where, how the warming will affect one place or another, who is to blame for the warming: man or nature and can the continuation be prevented? Is it possible to prepare for the continuation of the warming and what can be done to mitigate the disasters?
While we and the entire Western world continue the theoretical debates, there are already those who will be harmed in a real way, will be harmed by the warming and the climate changes which, according to all the signs, are to blame for the inhabitants of the Western world, the inhabitants of the developed countries in the northern part of the earth.
For decades and hundreds of years, farmers in the African depression valley in Kenya used to observe the behavior of "safari-ants" (Dorylus) and with their help determine the beginning of preparations for planting, and which crops to sow. This traditional information influenced the decisions regarding the processing and agricultural crops.
"When the safari ants cross the road carrying food on the way to their nest, it is a sign of the beginning of the rainy season", and this is the sign to start plowing the fields for sowing and planting, according to the elders of the Kalenjin tribe, "in the dry season, the ants enter the houses in search of food and moisture".
More of the topic in Hayadan:
But the climate is changing and the growing changes have caused the safari ant swarms to dwindle in a way that makes it difficult for traditional farmers to predict the weather in the coming seasons. Like the safari ants, so are many other insects that are disappearing from the surfaces of the African basin. Insects, some of which help farmers to predict the future and others that are important for the development of crops, whether in pollination or in killing pests in agriculture.
Insects need a constant ("optimal") temperature and respond to it. Due to changes in the climate there are types of insects that are disappearing. The impact is not only on traditional weather forecasting, but also on the important role that insects play in pollinating flowers. Together with the insects, the crops fall and decrease in the fields.
Farmers also look at the shape of the flight of magellanics (hadda) when they come to park for the night, "according to the shape of the flight, the farmers predict the coming of rain", "the croaking of frogs at night heralds the arrival of a bright day", "when the baobab sings about it, a dry season is approaching".
Different communities share traditions and methods of prediction based on the behavior of insects, birds and others. Among the Luhya people it is accepted that "when the termites come out it is a sign of success in the agricultural crops". On the other hand, "when locust swarms are detected, it is clear that food stocks should be prepared for a difficult season", "it is also advisable to plant resistant plants such as cassava, sorghum and millet".
Human activity causes temperature changes and "contributes" to damage to insect populations, as does the use of insecticides for protection against malaria and deforestation to build houses for a growing population. Farmers in Kenya suffer more and more from lack of rains on the one hand and floods on the other.
Most meteorologists reject the traditional methods of forecasting the weather saying that "they are not reliable", the director of the meteorological station in Kenya says that "farmers who act according to the behavior of factors in nature for the purpose of agricultural decisions are only "good observers" since until today the behavior of insects and "signs "Others in nature, have not been proven to be reliable factors for predicting future changes, this is because the insects react to (existing) conditions such as humidity or temperature" and not to future conditions.
On the other hand, a Kenyan entomologist claims that: "Traditional predictions by natives based on insect behavior combines information about changes and weather phenomena over a long period of time, so it is important that meteorologists combine their predictions with traditional methods." The farmers know that they need guidance but are not satisfied with the information given to them by experts and therefore do not act only according to the (official) meteorological forecasts but also according to tradition, as a farmer says: "The ants are more reliable than the radio".
It is possible that this is due to a lack of understanding, which is why there are those who say that the predictions that are announced on the radio must be conveyed in a way that is understandable even to those who "forecast with ants". Of course, it is necessary to act to mitigate the impact of climate change. It is necessary to stop the destruction of the forests and expand the existing trend of planting. It is necessary to monitor the wild use of insecticides, and of course it is necessary to completely stop the wild hunter. Farmers in remote areas who continue their traditional way of life, are harmed by activities that are far from them, are harmed by "trouble" that they had nothing to do with causing, therefore it is appropriate that they be given the opportunity to maintain their traditional way of life.
When, due to environmental changes, insects and other natural factors do not provide accurate forecasts, farmers are obliged to switch to new methods, and rely on forecasts that are broadcast in the media. For this, meteorologists are needed who know how to convey the information in a way that will be understandable even to farmers who cannot read and do not always understand the language of the radio broadcast. It is necessary to combine the scientific information with the traditional information. It is necessary to adapt the ways of transmitting information to an audience that is not familiar with scientific concepts, it is necessary to "speak to the farmer in his language".
3 תגובות
Nothing to do with warming.
If the behavior of the insects is indicative of the weather only when the weather behaves consistently. So it is very similar to my ability to predict that the bus will arrive at 07:15 only if the bus arrives at this time. At most there is room to check whether they have predictive ability. And climate change is actually a good time to test their predictability. And according to the information in the article, they don't have any.
If the insects become rare, maybe it's worth raising bees there. Israel has a lot of experience in honey production. We can help.