Trying to understand the sun

The existence of humanity as a regulated society in particular and the existence of life on earth in general, depend on the good and calm temperament of the sun. But what when the calm temper becomes shaky?

Most of us take the sun for granted. It brightens our day, heats the water in the boiler, and may be a threat at the beach, but usually not something that kills here on earth. But life with the sun is not easy. Like each and every one of us, the sun also has good days and less good days. Sometimes she is calm and sometimes she erupts, sometimes she is quiet and sometimes she makes such a fuss that you can feel it even here, from a distance of 150 million km. The existence of humanity as a regulated society in particular and the existence of life on earth in general, depend on the good and calm temperament of the sun. But what when the calm temper becomes shaky?

The sun experiences eruptions in an 11-year cycle, and the first and most important Israeli conference of its kind took place today on the campus of the Open University in Ra'anana. At the conference "Solar activity cycle number 24 and its effects on ground and space infrastructures" academics and field people who had a personal touch on the field of solar research, the effects of its storms on the Earth's atmosphere, the impact of storms on various infrastructures and satellite systems, and of course protecting those systems from potential damage that a solar storm may cause, spoke (and sometimes one is enough). The conference was attended by many representatives of industry and the various branches of the military.

After the greetings, the first session began, moderated by Prof. Yoav Yair from the Open University and one of the organizers of the conference. Dr. Ofer Cohen from the Harvard-Smithsonian Observatory took the stage first, to ask what we miss when we come to understand the current cycle of the sun, cycle number 24. After a historical review of the study of the sun and an explanation of some of its phenomena, Dr. Cohen dwelled on research Distortions in the sun's magnetic field, which is the main culprit of those threatening storms, and explained that the main reason for the distortions is the non-uniform movement of the sun around its axis. Dr. Cohen also added that it has been proven that we are at the beginning of a new cycle, after a longer than usual minimum of solar activity. is that good? is it bad Hard to say at this point. Either way, it is possible that something unusual is happening in the sun, and the range of predictions regarding the intensity of the sun's activity in the coming years, when scientists in the field are asked, is too wide to give an exact answer to "what will happen in the coming years".

After Dr. Cohen, came Professor Leon Hoffman, a researcher at the NASA Goddard Center and a visiting researcher at the Tel Aviv University. Dr. Hoffman analyzed the stages of progress of the average eruption, which emits enough mass to fill an "average" mountain. These charged particles sometimes reach the Earth, and encounter its magnetic field. Because of the tremendous distance (see above) and the final speed of the particles, it will sometimes take two days, according to Prof. Hoffman, until the Earth is hit. Is there a possibility of prediction? The answer is yes, unequivocal. Prof. Hoffman presented models of CME developments, or Coronal Mass Ejections, those "apaches" of the sun that emit charged particles into space, sometimes at a speed of 1000 km per second, and emphasized that accuracy in the models will allow accuracy in predictions.

The second session of the conference, moderated by Dr. Baruch Ziv from the Open University, touched on the impact of solar storms on Earth. First up was Prof. Colin Price, head of the geophysics department and told how the ionosphere is affected by solar flares. For example, during solar activity, there may be serious disturbances in aircraft communication, especially over the North Pole. Many flights "cut" through the pole to get from North America to Asia and back, and changing a route that allows continuous maintenance of radio contact costs flight time, and of course a lot of money in fuel. Dr. Dan Welling addressed this exact problem in his lecture in the third session.

After Prof. Price came the partner of Prof. Lev Postilnik from Tel Aviv University, Prof. Postilnik who is world famous in cosmic ray research. Prof. Postilnik told about the work being done at the research station on Mount Hermon, and about the modeling of cosmic radiation that reaches the meeting with the atmosphere. Cosmic radiation, by the way, can also pose a danger to satellite systems.

The third session of the conference (moderated by Tal Inbar from the Fisher Space Research Institute) opened with a lecture by Dr. Dan Welling from Los Alamos Laboratories in the USA. Welling talked about the activities of SWFT (Space Weather Forecasting Technologies), whose goal is to provide space weather forecasts to industries whose businesses depend on such reports. It is not just satellites, but also airlines, ground infrastructure, electricity, communication and more. SWFT's estimate of the potential damage was 1.2 billion dollars per year, but they were met with indifference from the industry, partly because the decision makers did not internalize the connection between space weather, and the very systemic failures they are trying so hard to protect against. An important thing to note about Welling's work: he obtained the market research and information data that helped start his commercial work in public or academic databases, most of which had free access. Something to think about.

After Walling, Mr. Meir Moalem from the MultiModis company told about failures of space systems that resulted from solar activity. The work of analyzing malfunctions in space is hard detective work by remote control, but it is rewarding on the side. Any satellite may reduce its activity due to a malfunction resulting from radiation emitted during solar activity, go out of control and interfere with other satellites, or actually return its soul to the Creator without prior warning. The economic damage to the company that built that satellite and to its customers, the telecommunications companies for example, can reach huge sums. It will be important to know what to expect when building the satellite, and of course to do the job properly.

This message was refined by Midad Farinta, a former "Amos" man and currently CEO of the Israeli space company Spacecialist and a consultant to insurance companies in the field of satellites. Mr. Farinta came after Mr. Moalem, and in a quick run of "do's and don'ts when you plan/build a satellite" he showed that even in the field of satellites there are no shortcuts, and that the beginning of every action should be with wise thought and planning. Mr. Farinta also noted several failures that occurred on his Amos 1, 2, and 3 satellites, which were caused by solar activity.

The fourth and last session of the conference was chaired by Major Amit Barry. Dr. Avner Haran from MMG Sorek and Prof. Ran Ginosar from Ramon Chip Company spoke at the session. Dr. Haran went down to the anatomy of the failures in the space systems caused by the activity of the sun. What are the different types of shorts in circuits? What faults should we expect during a particularly active solar cycle? Prof. Ginoser told about the work of the Ramon Chip company (formerly the late Ilan Ramon), which elegantly works in the field of creating components for satellite systems. The road to the top is winding, and the technical specifications required by the global industry force intensive thinking work and original solutions.

The conference was closed by Dr. Gabi Sarosi of Alup, who talked about eight optical cameras currently manufactured in Alup, for a variety of space missions: security, civil and international (military cameras were mentioned in the oil but not discussed). Dr. Serosi even presented an "almost video" photograph from space, in which a satellite photographed Tien-an-Man Square in Beijing in so many frames per second that the product looks almost like a video film and makes it possible to track the movement of vehicles. Tomorrow is already knocking on the door.

The event was organized by the Department of Research and Development of the ICT Division, the Open University, Mapat, the Space Administration of Moshebat and the Fisher Institute for Strategic Air and Space Research. Prof. Yoav Yair organized the conference on behalf of the Open University.