A project that received the name "Project X" to build a huge dam not far from the border of Sudan was carried out very early by the Ethiopian government, and it may harm its relations with Sudan and Egypt
In the last year, "spring" winds blew in Egypt, shortly before Sudan "separated" from South-Sudan, that is, the three countries that cannot live without the water of the Nile were busy - which allowed Ethiopia to advance in China the plan to build a dam on the Blue Nile.
A project that received the name "Project X" to build a huge dam not far from the Sudan border very early. Political commentators spoke of the danger in relations between the countries: Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia, environmentalists warned of the environmental consequences they would cause.
Economists claimed that the Ethiopian people would not be able to withstand the financial burden that the project would represent. The cost of the project is estimated at five billion dollars, and the company that will build it will be an Italian company called Salini Costruttori. This is the same company that establishes the The dam on the Omo River. All this was before the "Arab Spring", which devoured many cards and diverted attention from the project. In order to "confuse the enemy" the Ethiopians changed the name of the project to: "Renewable Ethiopia Dam".
At the end of the construction work, which is planned for 2015, it will be the largest dam in Africa and as such also the largest plant in Africa for generating electricity. Its output will be double that of the high dam in Aswan, the lake that will be created behind the dam will contain about 65 billion cubic meters and will be bigger than Lake Tana.
What worries or upsets Ethiopia's neighbors (Sudan and Egypt) the most is the fact that it will take three to five years to fill the huge lake. If we remember that the Blue Nile constitutes about 85% of the total flow of the Nile, it is clear that during the period when the lake is full, the flow of water will decrease by 85%. The Egyptians fear that even after the lake is filled, the flow will not return to normal, as the Ethiopians are planning factories that will transport water from the lake to vast areas for agricultural development.
This is the place to remind readers that according to an agreement imposed on the countries of the Nile drainage basin, most of the water 85% is received by Egypt, the remaining 15% by Sudan, while all the others: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Burundi receive nothing. The agreement was imposed in 1929 by the British. Since gaining their independence, all the countries have been brainstorming and for several years now a committee has been "sitting" that is supposed to determine a new division of the Nile waters.
The committee is "sitting" and in the meantime the countries with the interest are not quiet. Uganda is building a dam on the White Nile, Kenya is developing agricultural centers that will be irrigated with the water of Lake Victoria, and so is Tanzania, but all of these will use a tiny portion of the water, while "Project X" will significantly reduce the amount of water that reaches Egypt.
According to the visitors, all the preparations, including the start of work on the site, have been hidden until now, even the representatives of a Norwegian company that was in negotiations with the Ethiopian government for the purpose of the project were not aware of the pointlessness of their activity, since while they were carrying and giving - the government gave the contract to the Italians.
As in the case of the dam on the Omo River, no environmental feasibility studies were conducted here either, and here, too, millions of Ethiopian residents will be evicted from their land that will turn into a lake. But again, the main sufferers will be the Sudanese and the Egyptians, weakening the flow by 85% will seriously damage the supply of water for domestic and agricultural uses in both countries. And if we compared the dam that will be built to the high dam in Aswan, it is clear that the electricity output from Aswan will also decrease and decrease. In addition to this, the dam - project X - will store silt and sediment that would otherwise layer the banks of the Nile and improve the agricultural lands.
According to the Ethiopians "storage of the sediments will benefit the dams down the river because otherwise the dams get clogged and every few years it is necessary to drain the silt". What the Ethiopian answer does not take into account is the fact that the flow of water without silt will increase the erosion of the river banks and its deepening.
Obviously, the question arises, how will the drift and precipitation affect the Ethiopian dam? Apparently the Ethiopian government does not have an answer to this question as well as to the problems that will arise in the drainage basin of the dam. There are also those who point to the geological location of the dam - close to the African fault, a seismically active area that may endanger the dam, but there is also a chance that the dam and the lake will stimulate activity and cause earthquakes (following the construction of the "Three Channels" dam in China, earthquakes in the area increased threefold ).
All of this makes it clear how much the dam endangers the people down the river. About one hundred million people live and make a living with the help of the Nile. About one hundred million people whose existence is endangered by the construction of the dam. Egypt sees the dam as a threat to the point that its leaders are threatening military action, in one of the "Wikileaks" documents there is a detail of Egyptian preparations to attack the dam from bases in Sudan. Recently the winds have calmed down and in order to distract the Egyptians, the Ethiopians proposed the convening of an international panel of experts (IPoE) that will examine and evaluate the effects of the dam down the river, the team will also have representatives from Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia.
Staff meetings are held behind closed doors and decisions and conclusions are to be published within four months. Elsewhere it was stated that the next wars will be over water, will this conflict be prevented?
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what are you saying now Dr. Rosenthal
The committee determined that the establishment of a power plant by Ethiopians on the Nile does not stop in the countries of Sudan and Egypt!!
So I expect you will have an article correcting your biased extensions.
All the people who think that Egypt will conquer Ethiopia do not know what they are talking about. Neither the Tutmans nor the English nor the Ataleks conquered Ethiopia, even though they tried three times. Those who think the Egyptians will conquer Ethiopia are people who have no idea about the Ethiopians. What is certain is that the Egyptians have an idea, therefore they will not dare.
I was born in Ethiopia, I know them, you are dreaming if you think that Egypt will conquer Ethiopia, what Israel did to Egypt will be nothing and what Ethiopia will do to Egypt, believe me
Orit
The Egyptians did not have much difficulty in conquering East Africa up to Eritrea and Somalia, i.e. the Nile countries.
Currently, the Egyptians have no interest in conquering East Africa. If they dry up the sources of the Egyptian Nile, they will probably go to war to conquer the sources.
There is a well-known Arab proverb:
Everything is like a big day
The Straits ate it, they don't have any pressure lever or military option on the Ethiopians, what's more, they replaced the entire military elite after the coup with amateurs.
In another 3 years the Aswan Dam will dry up and they will taste the stew that Allah the Most Merciful has prepared for them.
Maybe in the future it will even be called the water revolution when the prices of free electricity and free water start to rise and the masses start going crazy.
I sell Egyptian lira and buy Ethiopian currency
For anyone looking for global justice - there is no such thing...
There is only hypocrisy and mainly interests.
A water war in the Middle East is not a new story, in 1965 Israel attacked a Syrian enterprise in the Golan Heights that tried to divert the Banyas water, so we should expect a war between Sudan and Egypt and Ethiopia.
Water is a precious commodity on earth only because we don't know how to work with it. 70% water on the surface and water is what we lack? No! There is more than enough water. There is no place and no sustainable technology good enough to produce them for man.
By the way, drinking water, in my opinion, is less of a problem. The real problem is that there are no good enough technologies in industry and agriculture that know how to deal with seawater as part of the system. Genetically modified plants should only grow on seawater. There is no reason for it to be otherwise (of course on special soils that can absorb the salts and evacuate them at the right time and place). There is no reason not to have at least 2 water pipes that enter the water, for toilets (sea water) and for the rest. Too bad. Too bad. Water is one of the most common products on earth and we suffer from a shortage not because it is missing but because we do not know how to extract it from nature in a sufficiently efficient manner.
Dig a canal into the heart of the Sahara desert from the sea and let water flow there. The high heat will easily evaporate them and you will get distilled water. Take some of the salinity back and make water with good salt concentrations for drinking or mix it with ground water that has too much nitrate in it to reach a proper health standard. There is land, there is water - lacking an entrepreneur and technology.
water for gas
Don't sell technology to Egypt - sell them sea water.
According to the article it sounds like a reason for war-
If it is indeed such a large amount of the water supply and the electricity supply -
The Egyptians have no choice - even if Egypt was the most democratic and peaceful country in the world - such a thing cannot be given up - where are they supposed to get water from?
There is a good chance that an Egyptian war will break out that will occupy at least part of Sudan, this is because in Egypt there is a population explosion and it is impossible to feed 90 million Egyptians already today. A war over the Ethiopian dam may serve as a good excuse for Egypt to expand its territory from the south.
Economic crises were a motive for many wars, this is a classic situation for a war whose purpose is to solve an economic crisis. The war will not break out today, but maybe in another 10 or 20 years.
interesting. The important thing is that Africa will ultimately benefit. True, one hundred million here rely on the Nile, but what happens to the one hundred million there that cannot use it? Africa needs to do what no one expects it to do - and unite. Understand that all people in Africa are human and there is no point or reason for there to be more than one big country in Africa that respects and protects minorities. Everyone is human and everyone deserves as good a life as possible. Egyptian blood is not worth more than Ethiopian blood or any other blood, therefore the river should be allowed to be used as much as possible for humans along its length, all this with as little damage to nature as possible - as much as possible.
Regarding bombs and wars - I understand that Egypt is very strong, but unlike Ethiopia, the Egyptians have a soft underbelly and it is the dam itself. If God forbid they blow up Aswan, there will be a mass slaughter of millions of people. And defending such an important and focused goal is not a simple matter. I think the Egyptians will think many times before they open fire against countries with air forces.
The title of my previous comment is: You are drawing our attention to a geopolitical problem of the first order!
And thank you for that.
You do focus the discussion on the ecological issue, which is important in itself, but from what you describe it does seem that we are at the beginning of a new water war. If the description is indeed accurate, then as far as the Egyptians are concerned, this is a casus belli! The Egyptian army is visibly stronger than the Ethiopian army and especially in regards to the air force. If construction starts there and the Egyptians arrive with their planes to bomb the site, the Ethiopians don't have much to do.
The historical fact that the Ethiopians and other black peoples came out very disadvantaged from the agreement that the British imposed back in 1929 (another one of the impossible salads that the British created in the Middle East) is of no interest to the Egyptians..
I wonder if and when this war starts, will it interest the world??