This is what Prof. Tamar Herman from the Department of Sociology, Political Science and Communication at the Open University says, at a conference that dealt with the topic of "science and apparent science", which took place on Wednesday this week in Ra'anana. * Calls on reviewers to draft an ethical code, similar to the one in the US
In Israel, between one election campaign and another, hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on ordering political polls on behalf of various candidates and even on behalf of prime ministers who want to know where the public's mood is blowing. The question arises what is the value of these polls, and it turns out that it is not much, as we saw yesterday in the polls on the three television channels that predicted a landslide victory for Tzipi Livni, and in the morning we almost woke up with Shaul Mofaz. From a difference of ten percent, the night ended with a tiny difference of about a single percent in favor of Livni.
On Wednesday, the day they voted in Kadima, Prof. Tamar Herman of the Department of Sociology, Political Science and Communication at the Open University (and Dean of Studies at the Open University) gave a lecture in the evening dealing with the topic of science and apparent science, under the title "The reviewer - a scientist or a political actor" and was Herman, the editor for years Together with Prof. Ephraim Yaer from Tel Aviv University, the Peace Index, quite a criticism of her colleagues.
According to her, political and commercial pollsters do not meet scientific criteria, and the purpose of the polls they conduct is to promote the client. To restore prestige to surveys, she suggests that all practitioners in the field adopt a code of ethics similar to their counterparts in the US.
"Public opinion polls are an important research tool in various fields in the social sciences and an auxiliary tool in the political and economic fields. In recent years we have witnessed a huge increase in the use of surveys. In today's democratic regimes, not a single strategic decision is made that is not accompanied by open or discreet coverage that tries to understand public opinion. The polls are used as a main advisory tool for political matters. In the modern regime, polls sample the will of the people and serve as a substitute for direct democracy. The polls price the political value of the country's leaders."
"The media plays a very problematic role. It causes the nourishment of a profession"
In a conversation with the Hidan website yesterday (Thursday) following the huge distance between the polls on all the television channels and the results on the ground in the elections in Kadima, Prof. Herman said: It's not that the polls ordered by the politicians are incorrect. The politicians themselves want to know the truth and therefore they want the correct information. Therefore, the politicians are not satisfied with surveys on representative samples, but also conduct special surveys on specific target groups, and also use techniques such as focus groups. In short, they collect information in many ways to check if the polls are correct, but what is published on their behalf or with their direct or indirect assistance in the media is not always the truth."
"The polls that the media themselves order on the eve of the publication of election results are the most problematic polls because the media is not ready to accept all the reservations that every professional pollster wants to add to the poll. They won't let Camille Fox or Mina Tzemach start detailing when giving the results that the confidence level of the survey is this or that, and the sampling error is 4.5% and that under these circumstances a survey is not the best way to predict what is happening. The media want something instant, one-dimensional, sharp and smooth without any methodological reservations and also very quickly and that's what happens. Because otherwise you can do a survey, and repeat the survey and apply other techniques to verify the results. The problem is not with the technique but with its instant application to the needs of the hungry media."
"The media plays a very problematic role. It causes the nourishment of a profession." Prof. Herman summarizes.
"On the background of the confusion between academic polls and political polls. We have to face the question of whether coverage is a science or a modern replacement for the crystal ball of the past?"
"Why do they even review? There is a debate to what extent political leadership should be attentive to the public? In the past, people claim that the leader knows more than anyone what is good for the people in the long term. However, the representative model caused a decline in the quality of the leaders, so the starting point today is that the people are the sovereign. Recently, together with the Institute for Democracy, we conducted the Democracy Index survey and when we asked people why they dislike politicians, in addition to the expected answer that politicians are corrupt, another common answer was 'They don't listen to us and don't consider us.'" states Prof. Herman.
Empirical finding: the polls create reality
"For many years, the representative is the messenger and he is expected to constantly consult with the voters. How will the chosen one know what the will of the people is? The coverage is a method designed to reduce uncertainties and allow empirical decisions to be made based on the will of the public. And an equally important question. Are the surveys scientific, do they reflect reality or create reality? appear to be. The question is not related to a skeptical premise that the surveys are intended to change behavior but rather from empirical research that shows that the publication of the surveys has an effect.
"Some believe that the study of the field of human behavior and consciousness cannot be tested by scientific means. In the social sciences there is a developed criticism towards the classical sciences that claim that the classical sciences also do not meet pure scientific criteria because the questions of the research are influenced by the budgets. In the social sciences, on the other hand, the experimental element is often missing. It is almost impossible to conduct experiments (with the exception of experiments in psychology) and the substitute is surveys. Another argument raised against the very use of surveys as a scientific method is that the mere determination of the survey topic reflects a normative agenda and not a scientific point of departure because a researcher in the social sciences is part of the society he is researching and is therefore actually part of his own experiment, if only in formulating the options he sets in the survey as a surveyor. Therefore, the conclusions of good surveys will talk about the adequacy of findings and not objective conclusions."
According to Prof. Herman, the problem is exacerbated in polls that are political or commercial, even if they are done by academics. People bring their prestige from academic studies to political studies but there they are subject to different conditions. The political and commercial pollsters also present themselves as scientists and use a lot of scientific terms, but the role of these polls is to promote the agenda of the client and not of the general public (and in many cases they change clients and the polls change accordingly). It states that this is a deliberate and blatant interference in the democratic process. Every politician uses the services of surveyors from Israel and abroad. "We are talking about yard surveyors, some of whom lead or serve a strategic system designed to change the will of the public and create a turn in public opinion towards the man in whose service they work."
The solution: an ethical professional code
According to Prof. Herman, the decline in public trust in Israel and around the world in actors in the public arena also includes pollsters: "Our political system has become a slave to public opinion polls." According to her, any attempt to prevent the publication of surveys on such or other topics or at such or other times is pointless in the age of the Internet. She emphasizes that the rules of the jungle prevail in the survey industry. It seems that the means to bring order to the survey industry and restore the survey's prestige as a scientific method is to oblige the surveyors to act within the framework of a professional code of ethics. The matter should not be left to the good will of those directly concerned. "A code of ethics exists in other countries - in some it is anchored in legislation, and in some - by the professional associations, like in the USA. In the ethical code that will be drafted in Israel, what can be defined as a survey, what are the minimum requirements for publishing survey results. It will be mandatory to publish all the questions, the response rate, the sampling error, the return rate to the original samples, the sampling error, etc."
25 תגובות
Have a good week everyone,
And now we will speak in the holy language, and not in the language of Jeremiah.
I wanted to wonder about Hugin's and Monin's jar..Odin's.., and I must admit that this lady makes me laugh a lot with her outbursts...some are angry with her, I actually take it in a good spirit..it adds a bit of an interesting twist to the discussions, some of which are too intellectual ( in my opinion).
After all, we don't want to be "whiny" like this kid, for example:
http://www.internetishi.co.il/?p=396
A good week to everyone and also to Hugin and Monin.. of Odin..,
Bar Yochai
Quantum is a dangerous word among cats, they are usually frightened by its meaning.
PS, it is better to teach cats to cross roads instead of making them part of a quantum equation that does not stand for compromise.
Bar Yohai,
I also tried to bother and decipher the meaning of the phenomenon of the two ravens of the Scandinavian mythological god (Odin's Hugin and Monin) - but at a fairly early stage it was too much trouble for me...
There is no doubt about one: Kirkoria Kirkori is a nuisance crows trying to protect their young that fell from their nest - for her, they are idle words that fall on the road and face being trampled by every bar-Orian.
And Kirkoria continues and shakes up the whole set of articles on the site - she has a lot of free time...
The permission is given - and the fingers are ticking. The freedom of fooling around.
Ruhama
I think you want to talk about quantum theory...
Hugin: In the eyes of the beholder.
I would like to put forward a theory that I have not seen before.
First: the facts - all the biases of the polls are biased in one direction and that is the direction in which the media is being mobilized. In other words to the left.
If there was a coincidence in the bias of the polls, sometimes there was a mistake in the direction of the right candidate and sometimes the left. But it doesn't happen?
And why does this happen?
There are two possible explanations for this. The first is a conspiracy theory. The polls are biased in the direction that their client is interested in, namely - the media. The questions are formulated and presented and interpreted in a way that suits the taste of the customer. And maybe the data is also distorted in the same way...
Second explanation: the polling institutes do not pay a fair salary to the pollsters, and they invent data according to the mindset in the media, for lack of other information.
It doesn't matter what the correct explanation is - the result is that you can't believe the polls.
Oh here is our Judas….
Finally your reference. Although in the Darmiza wing, how are you?
The return of the wife from her travels to the Cleopatrian roots?
In any case, I miss you until Maudano. Yours in a special kind of protection: Valmanin.
Hugin:
in the heavenly sorrows.
Is it possible to get a translation of these Oriya words in the Armata language?
swept away
Sabdarmish Yehuda
to the nice cheeky Bar Yohai.
And this is what we are dealing with, Rabbi, this is Indian as my vessel, this is my glory as my heart, this is my sanctity and precious-my lineage as eternal-eternal.
This is my grace - and my wisdom in my understanding, this is my understanding as my merchandise, this is my crown for the hardness of my name in the Alemya - and this is my unity
As enigmatic - all of you are intellectual - in the end - for a scientific evening in abundance - and sacred.
Ahhh: Hoggin-the fair one for his learned honor.
Just standing thrilled and amazed at the secrets and razin coming out of the mouths of Hogin and Monin.. of Odin.. literally mimer Kaddishin and decree of Erin.
And if we are dealing with simplicity, tell me your honor, what is the matter with her holiness and the island of Atra Hatifa Dasik in Mimra Hai Alma and not in Mimra Alma Dati?
And if your honor is already giving us a tour of the island of Shalta, perhaps you could add and answer where she got her unique rhetorical skills?
(If you need help translating my words, I will be happy to help)
I am the tiny Dabzarein
Bar Yochai
To the young bar-yo-chai in Pardes.
If you have already entered the tree of life and turned to me under the burden of the "survey science" mentioned above, there is no
I have nothing but to congratulate you on your courage in learning. (And my conversations with "Higgs"-Hidden.)
And if you want to get an answer to your questions in the rabbi or (mock rabbi?) you should first and the main thing is to start with the simple because that's where everything ends.
And yet, if you want, you are the connection and more connection and everything to Michesha turns and turns also to your friend
You will have to do your homework all by yourself. After all, the site before you is open just like any book of the Bible, and it is endlessly written as a new one.
And if the direct light chasm burns you, immediately return to the rabbi... or bring it to the site... hahahaha (well, don't panic).
I hope you enjoy it, a tap, both in the sermon and in the secret, return to simplicity: and that's the whole story at the end of the story.
Thank you in any case, for your "attention", which is the secret to the essentiality of the covenant and bar...
Hugin: For a puzzle...for Bar Yochai...and maybe a few more..
Shabbat Shalom and without any criticism of yourself, Chas.
To the young bar-yo-chai in Pardes.
If you have already entered the tree of life and turned to me under the burden of the "survey science" mentioned above, there is no
I have nothing but to congratulate you on your courage in learning.
And if you want to get an answer to your questions in the rabbi or (mock rabbi?) you should first and the main thing is to start with the simple because that's where everything ends.
And yet, if you want, you are the connection and more connection and everything to Michesha turns and turns also to your friend
You will have to do your homework all by yourself. After all, the site before you is open just like any book of the Bible, and it is endlessly written as a new one.
And if the chas Uri the direct burns for you, immediately return to the rabbi... or bring it to the site... hahahaha
I hope you enjoy it, a tap, both in the sermon and in the secret, return to simplicity: and that's the whole story at the end of the story.
Thank you in any case for your "attention", which is the secret to the essentiality of the covenant and bar...
Hugin: For a riddle...for Bar Yochai.
Social science is the nonsense of a bunch of people who think they are smart, who are intellectually incapable of even solving a quadratic equation.
An example of inexact science: medicine
An example of an exact science: physics
Haim:
And why didn't I argue that the lack of definition and the lack of the ability to judge objectively allow the use of irrelevant criteria such as responding to fair or correct courtships?
I think my argument was both fair and correct and in fact self-evident. What is truer than that when you have to judge and there are no objective criteria, non-objective criteria are used?
Can you explain your words and give an example of a process where it is not possible to judge objectively but the judgment is objective nonetheless?
Hugin and Monin.. of Odin..
From time to time I enter the site and read your words, among other things. The things you write make you wonder about your jar... who are you Hugin and Monin... of Odin?
Can you explain the pardas (Pasht Derash Ramez and Sod) that accompanies your words, let's say for example your last comment?
Is my impression correct that you are talking about "Tari Klin Davihad Mash'em'in"? I suppose someone like you, who writes in an almost Kabbalistic style, will understand my words.
And more than I understand, are your answers really relevant to what is being said here. In many cases, my little mind got tired and did not understand the connection between the high literature of your words, and the scientific materialism written here. Of course, I believe that there is a deep connection, but unfortunately I did not get the spring of wisdom that would open before me
Waiting for your answer, and may it (the answer, of course) move mountains and grind them together...
The young man in Paradise
Bar Yochai
I really think that the separation made between sciences and exact sciences was made for the same reasons stated above.
Science is the study of any phenomena, mathematics, psychology, desology, etc., you can go down to the resolution of the definition of science and ask about linguistics because it also studies language.
In my view, ultimately science relies on mathematics in one way or another, there are the exact sciences that involve mathematics in its entirety and the other sciences such as sociology, psychology, desology, etc. rely on statistics partially or fully, for example psychology and sociology are based on human reactions to different situations And from this, conclusions are drawn based on statistics, if 86% react in a certain way to a certain phenomenon, psychology will connect the cause and the circle.
Personally, I think that in the end the study of the brain will lead to much clearer answers of a wide range of social sciences, in the contemporary view, statistics is the best tool for understanding many fields (although I am a little averse to statistical inference), and in the end my appreciation for mathematics, physics, chemistry And genetics is much higher than psychology, sociology, political science and what separates them in my eyes is beauty.
This is the Higgs
Handsome requires handsome fulfills.
And I will also refer to your article in its entirety..
Hugin: Barbaba.. and all of us...
Laighs You will be surprised, but it is precisely these articles about apparent science that attract many readers. And it's a good thing because every rationalist would like to see these views promoted and promote the state.
Beyond that, I'd love to know what topics interest you, and again, I'd love it if you could help with the writing as well.
You probably know the sources, and if not, send me an email (click on my name in the lower bar) and I will list them for you.
Just to strengthen the matter of the ethical code. And the power of polls to influence public opinion should not be underestimated, therefore in a country that wants to maintain the fairness of democracy they must be controlled and fair in criteria. For example, a ban on the publication of samples in the media before the polls have closed. Or the publication of all the questions and not just what the reviewer chooses to present.
The latest samples and surveys indicated the superficiality of the profession in Israel. It is interesting that Arthur Finkelstein, Mofaz's advisor who does not know the Israeli spirit and apparently we would have expected it to be more difficult for him to predict the results, was actually the only one who was accurate in the results (43.7 percent that Mofaz claimed before the elections, and they are in the standard deviation range).
So there is no possibility of accepting the excuses of the surveyors in Israel regarding the primaries results. And it's a shame, it only points to the professional difference between them and their colleagues abroad.
Avi Blizovsky
I hope you are not offended, but in my opinion you have greatly exaggerated this line of "alleged science".
Creates troublesome and tiresome arguments, many word combinations that go nowhere
There is no patience for these things before retirement.
Higgs, rather, will help translate interesting news from free sources.
Besides, what's wrong with this news? The topic is in the headlines and it fits in with the general opinion of the site against the "alleged science".
Avi Blizovsky
It's a shame that the site has become one big yawn that doesn't make you want to take a look at the articles.
The topics brought up recently have accelerated the level of boredom
Literally information entropy about science
Michael
And on this it is said: Every period, and its social flow to the essence of science and logic (sociology) and that is attributed in an expert article to the creation of demons in a chariot.
The choice....:):):)
Hugin: In pure logic.
To Michael
I understand that you did not respond to Professor Tamar Herman's courtship.
with a smile
And welcome back to Idan
Sabdarmish Yehuda
According to Michael's measurement truth, psychology, philosophy, philology, etc., in general all the humanities and social sciences are not science.
I would accept this definition, if a distinction was made between sciences as a whole and between the exact sciences.
Indeed, the humanities and social sciences are not exact sciences and the emphasis is on the last word.
But Michael's middle sentence "...this is what allows professors in this field and in similar fields to rank the candidacy for the degree according to the extent of their responsiveness to their courtships." is clearly incorrect and unfair.
While risking stoning, I will point out that in my opinion sociology is not exactly a science either.
This is what allows professors in this field and in similar fields to rate the candidate for the degree according to the extent of their responsiveness to their courtships.
This method of awarding grades is much too difficult to apply in areas where objective results can be shown.