Paris of hope

Prof. Yoav Yair, member of the board of the Israeli Association for Ecology and Environmental Sciences and dean of the School of Sustainability at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, tells about the first days of the Paris Climate Conference and hopes for the continuation of the conference

From: Zveta system - news agency for science and the environment

The Paris climate change conference, COP21, enters the second week of discussions today. Official representatives of 195 countries gathered to discuss two important issues: reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the world and preparing for the climate change that is already happening - it is not a question of whether this change is happening, but what is being done to deal with it. Prof. Yoav Yair, dean of the School of Sustainability at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya and an expert in atmospheric and space sciences, follows what is happening in Paris and tells about what has happened there so far.

Prof. Yair, what is your impression of the conference?

"Until now, very little information has reached the public, and I also do not know what is happening in the closed rooms in terms of negotiations. What's more, there are countries that are really pushing to reach an agreement because they depend on it for their existence.

Among the countries present at the conference are Division into blocks, when each bloc has its own interests and desires. It's still too early to say because so far there is very little information being reported out, but I want to be optimistic."

Do we have reason for optimism?

"I am optimistic because I know that 'Failure is not an option', which is a sentence I took from NASA. So here too, in discussions about climate change, failure is simply not an option. Of course, the definition of what constitutes success and what constitutes failure is in the eye of the beholder, but I tend to believe that a significant agreement will be reached and that the global energy giants that are the USA, China, Brazil and India will signal a dramatic change of direction. If the great powers change the direction of the wind, I believe they will create a very significant impact on the rest of the world."

Prior Agreements

Prof. Yair recognizes many voices at the climate conference, and says there he correctly recognizes, the melody heard there is different from the one that was at the Copenhagen conference (the UN climate change conference held in 2009).

How can you make sure that the conference does not fail like the Copenhagen conference, and avoid repeating the mistakes made there?

"An Israeli woman who works in the British delegation to the conference gave a seminar at our school of sustainability a few months ago, and said that usually most agreements at global conferences like this are concluded in advance. There were lots of meetings before the COP21. A year ago COP20 was held in Lima, Peru, COP19 was held in 2013 in Warsaw and even before that there were other meetings. A lot of preparatory discussions have already been done, and I believe that most of the agreements to one degree or another have already been made in advance. The conference is the last step in the declarative and public level. I hope that indeed most of the agreements have already been reached, and now at the conference we will receive the gospanka of the leaders of the countries in front of the whole world."

Do you think that the fact that the US and China, for example, They reached an agreement at the end of 2014 Helping promote the issue?

"Without a doubt at all. 2014 was a key year because for the first time China and the US, who did not sign the agreement at the Copenhagen conference and did not even ratify the Kyoto Protocol, are significant players. Even in China they are beginning to understand the situation: I saw a headline yesterday that by 2020, they will get lung cancer 800,000 MAN Every year because of air pollution. So we can laugh, I saw someone who wrote in a Facebook comment that 800,000 in China is below the statistical error, but I don't think that's true - after all, the Chinese government also takes care of its citizens."

Walking among the drops

What do you think is the best scenario that can come out of the conference, and what is the worst scenario?

"The best scenario is that there will be agreements on more significant reductions than what is currently on the table, meaning that the goal will be a warming of no more than two degrees by the end of the century. If such agreements are not reached and each country does what it wants, the result can be sad. I don't even want to think about the worst case scenario - of course there could be serious disputes. What is encouraging is that the disputes today are no longer about whether something should be done, but about how much should be done, and the talks are about the threshold at which an agreement can be reached.

"In contrast to Kyoto, which was talked about there control and enforcement mechanisms, the agreement currently taking shape does not have such mechanisms. It is not binding and binding, but focuses on agreements and transparency in execution. It is not about establishing a mechanism to monitor the greenhouse gas emissions of one country or another, but rather that each country declare the amount of emissions it intends to reduce, and later report how much it has already reduced. This is the creation of an international mechanism of transparency. As soon as the discourse is public and reveals the 'good' and the 'bad' in terms of protecting the planet, I believe it will be effective.

"By the way, if they had opened a dialogue on an enforcement mechanism as well, the conference would probably have failed in advance. I think that by not establishing such a mechanism, they removed a major obstacle and allowed countries like the US and China, which previously did not do so due to the fear of supervision and sanctions, to join the conversation."

But if an enforcement mechanism is not established, what will prevent countries like China and India, for example, from transmitting false data later?

"Because when you put your eyes in space you can't lie. Satellites see everything. Today there are global monitoring systems and it will be very difficult to distort the numbers. Just like countries don't lie about their GDP these days, it looks very bad when a country presents one thing and performs something else. These gaps can create a very big embarrassment for a country that tries to cheat."

safe optimism

Despite the good will of the countries participating in the climate conference, there are also issues that may cause controversy. Prof. Yair points to two main issues: the emission reduction levels to which the countries will be required to reach, and the goal of using renewable energies in countries that currently only have polluting energy sources.

"To come to the countries of the developing world with a demand to reduce emissions or change the energy economy, is beyond their capabilities today," he explains. "They need help because their food and energy production needs are such that their transition to renewable energies is a luxury. Here there can be a dispute about the amount of help, or how quickly they should reach these goals, and how much the countries of the Western world, who have already polluted what they polluted, should now help Third World countries not to make the mistakes they themselves made in the past. The developed countries can argue about how much money they will deposit inThe established global fund (GCF) and the Investment Bank.

"No matter what there are disputes about, it is important to remember that the bottom line is what the countries want for their citizens - a good life, well-being, economic development. Not only now but also for future generations. It has to be done in a responsible way, that is, to take care of the intelligent management of natural resources and not to leave behind a scorched earth."

In terms of Israel's preparation for the conference: the Ministry of Environmental Protection has published reduction targets per capita greenhouse gas emissions, but the bottom line is a total increase of 14% in emissions. Do you think it was possible to set a goal of an overall decrease in greenhouse gas emissions?

"Not sure. It should be taken into account that the country continues to develop: the population is growing, and energy and transportation needs are constantly on the rise. In my opinion, the target set for the use of renewable energies is not enough: today electricity production from renewable energy stands at only 4% of the total production, while the target set for 2030 is 17%, and I think a higher threshold of 30% should have been set. But at least we see that there is a trend.

"I look at what was 15 years ago in terms of environmental protection - air, water and soil pollution, and distribution of resources, and see that we are in a completely different place today. I will not say that we have finished the work and that we can put our feet on the table, on the contrary. I would rather mention the disaster of the oil line leak in the Evrona Reserve and the huge cost that the economy will have as a result, and the fact that today we are still 'addicted' to gas and oil. But I definitely feel a change in the direction of the wind, and that the change is positive."

Prof. Yoav Yair is the dean of the School of Sustainability at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya and an expert in atmospheric and space sciences