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Stephen Hawking: High probability of the existence of primitive aliens

Whereas a researcher from the University of East Anglia, Prof. Andrew Watson explains why and calculates that the chance of intelligent life forming on a planet with conditions similar to those on Earth is 0.01% and therefore we would have to locate tens of thousands of Earths to find one ET, more than the number of planets of this type in every galaxy

Tropical life on a moon of a Saturn-like planet
Tropical life on a moon of a Saturn-like planet

) The famous astrophysicist Stephen Hawking thought a lot about the cosmological question, "Are we alone?" The answer is probably not, he says.

If there is life elsewhere in the universe, Hawking then asks why we have not yet come across alien transmissions in space, something along the lines of "safe" or "survival" for aliens.

Hawking's arguments were part of a lecture at George Washington University on Monday in celebration of NASA's 50th anniversary. He said there are several possibilities for the question of whether extraterrestrial life exists.

One possibility is that there is no life anywhere else. Another possibility is that there is intelligent life somewhere in space but from the moment they are smart enough to send radio signals, they are also smart enough to create nuclear weapons.

Hawking says he prefers the third option:

"Primitive life is very common and intelligent life is quite rare", and then he added: "A number of people will say that this has not yet happened on Kad'a".

So should we worry about aliens? Alien abduction stories, it is claimed, mostly come from strange people, and are improbable. However, it is possible that the aliens do not have DNA like us, Hawking warns: "Be aware that if you meet an alien, you can contract a disease that has no antibody."

The 66-year-old British cosmologist, who suffers from muscular dystrophy and can only speak through a speech device, believes "if the human race continues to exist for another million years, we will be forced to step where no one has ever walked before."

Hawking compares the people who don't want to "waste" money on space exploration to the people who opposed Christopher Columbus' voyage in 1492.

"The discoveries of the New World unbelievably changed the Old World."

To the original article

The chances of meeting with ET Weak * So states Prof. Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia

Avi Blizovsky

A few days before Hawking's words, the news was published in the scientific press that the chances of intelligent life growing on an Earth-like planet are slim. This is how a British scientist calculated. The scientist, Prof. Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia says that humans evolved thanks to a series of four "critical steps" that the chance of repeating them on another planet is less than 0.01%.

The discovery of new planets outside the solar system accelerated the attempts to locate intelligent life. However, in an article published in the scientific journal "Astrobiology", Watson writes: "Complex life may be a rare phenomenon, and finding it will be even rarer."

"We may have to discover tens of thousands of Earths before we find one inhabited by sophisticated creatures. The reason for this is that the literal lifespan, meaning the period during which the planet is capable of sustaining life, is estimated at 5 billion years - and this time span is not enough. "We believe today that we evolved very late in the period that allows life to exist on Earth, and this shows that our evolution is quite rare. In fact, the timing of the events as they happened is also rare." said. "This affects our understanding of the likelihood of the creation of complex life and the rise of intelligence on any given planet."

Only a billion years left

Models of the expected temperatures on the earth in the future, state that due to the increase in solar radiation, the future lifespan of the earth will be at most a billion years - a short period compared to the 4 billion years that have passed since life appeared on earth.

In addition, previous models found that intelligent life arose on Earth after a series of critical steps. Prof. Watson identified four of these - the single-celled bacterium stage, complex cells, specialized and differentiated cells that enable the creation of life, and the stage in which intelligent life was created that developed language.

He estimates that for each such stage, there is no more than a 10% chance of occurring during the lifetime of a planet, therefore the chances of creating intelligent life on any Earth-like planet is tiny - less than 0.01% in 4 billion years. There are about a hundred billion stars in our galaxy, and therefore probably many thousands of Earth-like planets too - enough to make this small chance quite promising. But even then, you have to be careful. "The concept that evolution develops in a predictable progression and that the creation of intelligent life is inevitable is now considered anthropocentric. "Any direction in evolution and in particular the result seen on Earth may be extremely improbable. "On the other hand, the rapid development of life on Earth immediately after it was formed suggests that simple microbial life is relatively common."

52 תגובות

  1. Estimates that... it is likely that...

    On the one hand, Hawking claims that the probability of discovering intelligent life is low and therefore it can be concluded that we have no fear that they will come to pay a polite visit... This is of course in line with the mainstream and hegemonic science, which claims that due to the great distances in space, there is no fear of such a visit (presumably, according to the assessment, even intelligent extraterrestrials who evolved millions of years before us, probably fly in NASA-style fuel-driven shuttles and therefore will not arrive here).

    On the other hand - Hawking warns us day and night of the terror of bad aliens who may, mercifully, locate our radio broadcasts and invade here in the style of the war of the worlds (he of course knows how to appreciate that they are hostile and will behave exactly as the colonialists behaved in the 19th century) and therefore warns us not to broadcast to them…

    On the other hand - Hawking has been recycling these myths and his beliefs for many years... It's time to call it "Hawking's paradox" (although I would call it Hawking's schizophrenia) - extraterrestrials can't get here and the chance for intelligent ones is slim, but be very careful about broadcasting or signaling, since they are hostile and woe betide if they get here.

    On the fourth hand - Hawking never bothered to investigate the subject of abductions and his claims that this is information coming from strange people and that are not reasonable, are foolishness and nonsense of the first degree. Nonsense that is said directly from his private beliefs, without bothering to research or review even half an article about some of these cases.

    Hanan Sabat
    Co-Chairman - the Israeli Association for UFO Research

  2. Hawking is a populist for better or for worse. He made the exploration of the universe an interesting thing. On the other hand, it is superficial. Hawking compares the people who don't want to "spend" money on space exploration to the people who opposed Christopher Columbus' voyage in 1492.

    Columbus did not set out to discover new worlds. He argued that since the earth is round, it is possible to go west from Europe and reach India. Scientists objected, arguing that the Earth was larger than Columbus imagined. They were right and he was wrong. He arrived somewhere and claimed to be India. Most of his men perished on the way and this was not India. If the road to India was indeed clear, none of the crew members would have survived.

  3. There may be life in the universe and maybe even developed. But in my opinion, there is no other planet on which there is a creature capable of calculating the Pythagorean theorem (for example) - because if there were, we would see at least one other creature, here on Earth, capable of doing it.
    So if we look at the sky (with devices) - we can easily delete 99.9999% of them (regarding life on them)
    Then we can do a similar operation for any additional conditions that exist for there to be life.
    And after we've done that, we can look and check the Earth and see that even though there are types of humans here - not one of them built a computer.
    This thought alone - leaves me with the (sad) insight that we have no partners

    A. Einstein, C. Joplin, b. Dylan, Deepak Chopra, and my upstairs neighbor (and me) - it's just pure luck. Maybe like winning the lottery 1000000 times in a row.

    I would love to be wrong and correspond with someone from Andromeda.

  4. Hanan..
    The existence of 2 billion smartphones on Earth is a pretty strong refutation of UFO visits, snowmen and lizard people.

  5. As long as Hawking and his partners ignore the studies and findings concerning the UFO phenomenon, then all their arguments are irrelevant and the chance that they are speaking out of faith, gut feeling and ignorance of the subject is equal to 100%...

    It is amazing how scientists completely ignore scientific studies (including official studies) and continue to publish imaginary and faith-based musings, about a field that they have never researched, did not examine (and did not want to investigate) and all this while hiding behind their international status and academic degrees, with the aim of equating reliable and scientific waving information seemingly.

    Hanan Sabat
    Co-chairman, the Israeli association for the study of UFOs and extraterrestrial life

  6. Hybrid throw some bone. Where is your information from?

  7. With you, the possibilities are not limitations for the questions and answers you wrote in this window, but I don't think the reason for the question is such a level: no one knows this!, from one phrase that has accompanied me all my life is: if we cannot explain the sun and who broke it, what around it can we?

  8. sane voice,

    1. Why? based on what?
    2. The expansion of the universe really does not show that there are an infinite number of stars - and not even that their number is increasing!
    3. The mathematical equation 0 times infinity is really not simple.

  9. 3 facts that will help you understand whether there is a chance for intelligent life outside the earth:
    1. The probability of the existence of life on a certain planet tends to 0
    2. The number of stars in the universe tends to infinity (expansion of the universe)
    3. The simple mathematical equation: 1+1=2

    post Scriptum. Even if there is life doesn't mean you have to run to look for it, they are probably smarter than us if they exist and maybe they are 'not in a good mood'. And by the way to the drug addict who claims that spaceships were accompanied by aliens, nonsense in juice, and the pyramids in China is a well-known fact (which was apparently used as a magnificent tomb in honor of leaders).

  10. Then I see the creature…. The question is how do I deal with him? To approach him and give him a hand? Imagination and reality always meet

  11. Dr. Yigal Fat-El also cited, the source belongs to William Waterson, the illustrator and writer of the comic "Calvin and Hobbes".

  12. My cute friend!!! I love your conversation. But unfortunately we must rely on facts and not imagination. We are on a quest for facts, because if we were on a quest for imagination we would be crazy, and there would be no rational development. So there are no aliens. Because if there were, we don't know about it from great sources. And not from some articles at the end of the page. We had facts etc. Currently there are no facts therefore no aliens. But we will continue to be interested. And by the way - for anyone who thinks about time distance, etc., it was created with the universe. But there is an interesting hypothesis that allows for a flexible universe that can shorten interstellar time intervals. You can read scientific articles online. Which means in the event that there is more intelligent life than us, they could use this option for a scientific visit to our globes and observe the banal human beings.

  13. I would like to respond to a few points that people have brought up:

    1) Regarding the aliens who visited Poe:
    In my opinion, aliens did not visit Poe, they certainly did not accompany human bones, as hybrid said, these are wretched conspiracies, no government has a reason to tell us that there is no other intelligent life that visited Poe, on the contrary, they would be in a hurry to tell us about the find
    And once they knew that other life managed to reach Po, they would invest most of their money to develop technology for interstellar flight

    2) Regarding the fact that we will destroy ourselves in the future (and every intelligent culture destroys itself):
    I don't want to hurt or offend but you sound to me like people who have lost hope in their culture and have become a little disgruntled about this. Sentences that are relatively difficult, especially those that you mean with all your heart, are sentences that I have stayed longer
    Looking forward to hearing from politicians
    But I definitely agree that the cessation of hostilities between us will place humanity in the Japanese "Space Age" Most of the money in the powerful countries (and also in more neglected ones) is spent on weapons and military-technological development and no one has any interest in spending security funds on the fantasy of space travel but after the end of the "Age of Wars" " (which will continue since the beginning of written history and known to us as humans to this very day) and we will reach the control of one government, the funds will begin to be transferred to other purposes, initially for the shaping of the world and a complete exit from the "era of wars"
    Then the funds will go to education and then after the company is stable there will be a lot of funds left for the development of technology and above all the technology for space travel

    *I must also say that the sentence "intelligent cultures destroy themselves" is not true
    And not about us, let me remind you why we fight, what is the basis, what is our drive to fight: this is the same instinct for war and territory. We ourselves have not overcome this instinct. We have not yet become fully intelligent.
    And in conclusion: we are still wild animals at our core

  14. Fermi: "So where are they all?" Cruel governments that suppress knowledge... come on...
    Let's calculate together - if you are an alien who can come here regularly (which is very unlikely to be able to move at a speed higher than the speed of light since a journey from a planet would take him a reasonable time and not years) and the living conditions here are suitable for him why not establish a colony here?
    If we had the possibility of expanding into space that would improve our chances of survival over time (which are extremely poor because the human race as individual individuals is not built to survive in a hostile environment and its strength is in the complex fabric that the individuals make up, but it is not too difficult to undermine this fabric) would it not spread there ?
    Certainly. And if there were life forms there he would enslave them to his needs or push them just like man did to the other animals near him.
    Stop the shekel conspiracies.

  15. The truth
    The fact that a person who believes like him does not know the exact number for creation according to the Jewish tradition, indicates his ignorance. Even if he does not remember exactly, he should know that the year is 5768 and know how to calculate that it is XNUMX.

  16. I don't understand what everyone is talking about. God created the world about five thousand seven hundred and fifty years ago {there is an exact date, I just don't remember it} and actually at any moment the Messiah can come and then there will be a war of Gog and Magog and the resurrection of the dead. But he who does not believe in all this and does not keep the commandments will die in the war and will not win the next world. The entire Nazarene is said if we repent then the Messiah can come at any moment, but if we don't have the right for him to come now then in about two hundred and fifty years the Messiah will come for sure and then there will be a war of Gog and Magog there were those who expressed that it would be child's play compared to Malacha "A the second Therefore, stop talking nonsense and repent.
    For details in the evening you can contact: 050-414-3954

  17. If by chance intelligent extraterrestrials arrive here and meet precisely those who believe they are constantly visiting here, they will come to the conclusion that there is no intelligent life here.

  18. Life has come here.
    It is not known when.
    It is not known how.
    In your limited, conditional, and stupid humanity.
    In your vision limited to a narrow interval of waves.
    You refuse to accept the natural and obvious since it is not divided into three parts.
    Galileo Galilei was the only person in the world who argued against everyone until they wanted to kill him because he threatened the false and cruel fake order organized and maintained by the general interest.
    He was right, and they were both wrong, thus changing our lives forever.
    In the future there will be many more like him and if they are not murdered too soon then we will have many more days of whimsy.
    and curiosity mixed with slight apprehension.
    Maybe I will win.


  19. I can prove that everything that simple people like Tal believe as of today is nonsense that the media spoon-fed them.
    Did they say in the news that the Columbia spacecraft was accompanied by an alien spacecraft?
    Did they say in the news that Apollo 11 was also accompanied by an alien spacecraft?
    Did they tell about the pyramids in China? About findings of skeletons of aliens in Thailand? Giant skulls in India? Messages from space to the SETI agency?
    Those who are shocked by my words are welcome to check because everything is true.
    The "public version" is what people are allowed to do. Censorship.

  20. What a treat to hear about probability from people who understand.
    Life probability on our ball is equal to -0-
    Like the -0 of every other place in the universe.
    1. There is intelligent life in the universe—and they visit here
    2. There is life in the universe because it does not belong to probability.
    3. The probability is low that you will get it because this is the reason
    At the beginning of its development - only a few thousand years
    4. Electromagnetic waves are not used in the universe for communication—
    It's pointless, you can't have a conversation from a distance.

  21. Confused? me too . Who what what at the edge of the universe? Our brain is not enough for that. Let's say that on earth there have been whole cycles of intellectual growths higher than ours. So von Daniken was right? .
    In the meantime let the scientists investigate, I as a small thinking person say thank you to God. A billion years or more is equivalent to the days of creation in Genesis?
    Einstein said something about time...

  22. Humans cry that they are not answered from space when all the answers are already here.
    Countless messages you chose to ignore.
    SETI received a message in 2002 containing the life structure of extraterrestrials, they too, like us, are made of silicon - zoran in Hebrew, they have DNA similar to ours.
    And in general we are quite similar to them surprisingly.
    What to do when the "free world" is controlled by governments that don't really want you to know what's going on here and hide the knowledge from the people to save "panic".

  23. From all the observations and especially in light of the fact that the universe is expanding, it can be understood that we are nothing more than a grain of sand in the universe. Not only that, but the distances between stars are only increasing.
    When we talk about distances, we talk about light years, which means we perceive events that actually happened billions of years ago.
    If you combine this with the fact that the lifespan of a star is five billion years, it is likely that the same intelligent being that transmitted the signal has long since been physically gone, as well as the star from which the signal was transmitted.
    If that planet became extinct or there was a mass extinction on it, which is quite likely to assume, because even in the history of the Earth this happened several times, the chance that we will ever face an intelligent extraterrestrial being or that we will communicate with an extraterrestrial being tends to zero.
    I would actually concentrate the efforts on the ability of the human race to launch and sustain a few hundred people in space for a period of two or three years in case a disaster occurs on the scale of an asteroid impact or something like that, this is a much more logical direction than looking for extraterrestrial life.
    Ah, yes, and the human race will become extinct like every species before or after it, because everything has an end and the universe will also have an end, although it would be very honorable if the human race was there to witness it.

  24. to unite"
    You mentioned the Mayan tribe. Speaking of the Maya, I previously read a theory which holds that the Maya were destroyed in a "self-destruction" caused by the fact that their culture
    that she used all the creative and financial energies she had at her disposal for two purposes only (!) and without going into too much
    The two goals were (1) religious worship and the building of temples on a huge scale. (2) The work of the ruling king who was (probably) in the status of a god. And it was said: "What did I have... Maya, Maya. I had nothing..."

  25. to unite"
    You claimed that the Mayans invented the "zero".
    A. Please allow me to question the authenticity of this information. Do you know when this "invention" took place??
    B. Do you know if and how the Mayans made any use of their "invention"??
    third. I have previously read a theory which holds that the Mayans were destroyed in a "self-destruction" caused by the fact that their culture
    that she used all the creative and financial energies she had at her disposal for two purposes only (!) and without going into too much
    The two goals were (1) religious worship and the building of temples on a huge scale. (2) The work of the ruling king who was (probably) in the status of a god.

  26. for the "squeamish"
    A. Your claim that humanity "is not going to destroy itself", as optimistic as it is, should perhaps be supported by some reasoning. Otherwise it seems hollow.
    After all, the essential difference between existence and destruction is that existence, however long it may be, does not guarantee continued existence. While the annihilation may be short, and if it is total annihilation, then it guarantees non-existence.
    B. The annihilation will not necessarily be caused by an "atomic bomb", after all, there are other dangers, many and dangerous, that guarantee human existence, some
    externalities and some of them stemming from the very nature of human existence, chief among them, the danger of population explosion and dwindling sources of livelihood.

  27. "Imagination is more important than information."
    Just as the chance of another Earth being formed is small, so ours is equally small and yet here we are.
    Understand that the principles you are following are correct but limiting.
    The Mayan tribe invented zero not only numerically but also in terms of time! They were the time keepers! past present Future!
    "This moment is your friend. Accept it."
    time? And what if not found??? Who needs time?
    It exists only to plan the future and there are people who do the work
    Really, really good for you. So....that they will not work on you....:)

  28. How annoying are those who write here... "Yes, humanity is going to destroy itself with an atomic bomb"... Yes, of course, except that in the past decades it has not happened and is not going to happen, except that Hawking allegedly said it already in the article, so you did not come up with some personal gloss ...secondly, humanity is not going to destroy itself and thirdly, certainly not by an atom, you will get out of the movie.

  29. I believe that the transmission power of alien radio stations (if they transmit on radio waves) is much lower than pulsar transmissions.

  30. Dew
    Even if you wrote it four times (certainly not on purpose) - it is not true. It seems to you that the SETI project and others have been going on for decades even though actually according to your words it is impossible to absorb.
    Radio waves never become noise; Simply because it is impossible to obtain a concentrated beam at zero degrees, so at every point in the count of the wavefront at large distances, the intensity weakens and at large distances it reaches the noise level and at greater distances - below the noise level. Certain encodings allow reception even below the noise threshold.
    We receive radio waves from a distance of tens of thousands of light years - from pulses.

  31. We will never receive radio transmissions or radio signals from aliens because the radio signals become noise after a distance of 1.5 light years, so no one will receive our transmissions either. Sad but true.

  32. A. Ben Ner
    Gad Yacovi also quoted.
    I don't remember at the moment exactly who the source of this tongue print is. I think it's Nils Bohr but I'm not sure.

  33. I would like to paraphrase here the well-known words of the late Gad Yacovi:

    In our world (originally: in Israel), it is extremely difficult to predict...
    Especially regarding the future.

  34. point:
    They actually found one example of an intelligent animal in the universe.
    It is true that there are some in it who strongly oppose this reasoning and try to dwarf and destroy the Shegiya, but (still) there is an example.

  35. I don't understand what you are talking about here. So far we have not found any form of intelligent life in the entire universe. So why assume that there is such a thing?

  36. I agree with Prof. Andrew Watson's hypothesis regarding the rarity of intelligent and developed life. There may be about 10 alien civilizations in our galaxy
    and therefore their dispersion in the galaxy is large (this is a hypothesis)
    Their transmission/reception methods are unknown to us
    The field of radio waves is only one of the possibilities
    And so if we persist in trying to absorb them for hundreds or thousands of years (if we exist) then Eli will absorb one of them.

  37. It's all a fiction of extremely bored people and also classified experiments of all kinds of armies in the world.

  38. Calculation of life chances…. 😀
    I liked

    : )

    Who said scientists don't have a sense of humor?

  39. A person
    You are absolutely right, the prevailing view is to search according to what is known because it is the most familiar thing, to actually search for the same patterns that exist on Earth, in recent years there has been more thought in the direction of life forms that exist in completely different ways, but still the mainstream is probably the search for planets and searching for areas where life can exist and cross-referencing the information.

    In any case, all these planets that are discovered today and some of them seem to have a certain probability of containing life in them are still light years away from us, which will prevent us from checking the area, the only thing that can be done is to send radio waves to the area - something that can only be useful if the life on this planet is intelligent and developed, and of course Provided they are also looking for a life.

    In any case, I really hope that humanity will be able to survive for many more years, because as it appears today, the next world war will include some kind of weapon of mass destruction, a war can also be a series of huge attacks - it does not have to be in the form of World War II, and this is really the dangerous thing because from the dawn of history, Muslims wanted To destroy the Christians, the Germans wanted to annihilate the British, the Jews, etc., the only difference is that today this power has potential realization and all that is missing is a leader who thinks in an irrational way to destroy humanity.

  40. Sometimes I throw a stone and ask: "What was the chance that I would hit it right there?"
    And for example: we look at ourselves and ask what were the chances that life would be created like it was created on Earth.
    But there can be different kinds of life. Those that thrive in a different temperature range, that are not actually based on carbon, do not breathe oxygen, do not base the processes on water, etc.
    Let's not forget that we don't know how life is created.
    I wouldn't calculate the odds of something I don't know how it happens.

  41. H. the first one:
    Your words are not "in addition" to what Hawking said but a repetition of some of his words.
    Quote from the article:
    "Another possibility is that there is intelligent life somewhere in space but from the moment they are smart enough to send radio signals, they are also smart enough to create nuclear weapons."

    Dr. Yigal Fat-El once said that the proof that extraterrestrial life is intelligent is the fact that they avoid visiting here

  42. Judah, don't forget that the first and second atheist war will destroy a significant amount of billions
    : )

  43. In a few hundred years there will be several hundred billion human beings on earth. Every Quikonian country will have nuclear, biological, genetic, or whatever you want. Extremist religions will continue to attack (nuclear, etc.) and Pope Benedict 97 will continue to oppose contraceptives.

    And on an optimistic note I will finish:-
    It doesn't seem to me that humanity will survive the third millennium.

    So Merry Christmas
    Sabdarmish Yehuda

  44. The only sample humanity has of a planet containing life is our solar system. In this single sample life was discovered and even intelligent life - us. From here, the apparent conclusion should have been the opposite, that in every discovered solar system there is life, even intelligent life...
    It is understood that this conclusion is probably far-fetched, but no more far-fetched than any other claim regarding the existence or non-existence of life on other planets.
    In statistics theory, a sample of at least 30 samples is needed in order to determine a normal distribution of results. The human race currently has no more than one specimen.
    Just to mention - until a few years ago it was not thought that there were other planets besides the planets around our sun. Now more than 100 have been found in less than 10 years, due to technological improvements. They will probably find thousands and tens of thousands of additional planets in the coming decades.
    Recently they also found a number of planets that are in the "life zone" meaning in the same region where water can be in its liquid form on the planet. It is assumed that hundreds more will be found when we reach the point where we discover tens of thousands of new planets.
    A kura in every planet in the life belt has primitive life because that is the result of our sample here on earth.
    So everything is open…

  45. All of the above is true, but in addition it is likely (in my opinion) that intelligent life destroys itself quickly.
    Fast may be 60 years after the invention of the atom or 2 million years of debate about the futility of life and the habitability of stars, but still too fast for them to remain to meet or hear from another intelligent person.

    As they said, and rightly so, during the lifetime of our galaxy, life should have formed on dozens of planets (at least).
    So where did they go? There are no broadcasts on any wave, laser, anything, there is no trace...
    In my opinion they were glimmers of intelligence in the timeline of the life of the galaxy, and we will also be glimmers.
    There is no connection between glitter and glitter, nor is there any meaning to our existence... except to be glitter 🙂
    Shine because tomorrow we die.. 😉

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