The environmental disaster that will shake the Middle East?

The Nile River, on which the lives of tens of millions of people depend, is in danger due to a huge dam built in Ethiopia and due to the rise in sea level, which causes more salt water to enter the river. Could the environmental damage to Egypt's main water source lead to social and security problems whose effects will also be felt in Israel?

By Alina Fishman, Angle, Science and Environment News Agency

The Nile River, Egypt's main source of water, has always been the country's main lifeline. Even in the Land of Israel they recognized its power and importance. For reference, in the antiquities of Tzipuri in the Galilee, a mosaic from the Byzantine period was found with magnificent descriptions of the Nile, which also include the nilometer, a device used to measure the water level of the Nile, on which numbers are engraved in Greek indicating the abundance of water that flowed in the river.

Today, all this abundance is in danger, due to an environmental disaster that is plaguing the Nile and whose results could shock the Middle East.

Environmental damage is one of the main causes of most international crises - for example, the genocide in Rwanda in the 90s, which, apart from ethnic hatred, was also caused by a very dense population that lived on lands that were fertile but subject to erosion and droughts. which damaged the agricultural production capacity and led to a severe famine in the country. Environmental factors also played a part in creating the situation that led toThe current civil war in Syria – A persistent drought that pushed rural populations into the cities, where political unrest arose that led to the bloody war.

If there is no real change in the situation, Egypt may be next in line and its 95 million inhabitants may become victims of an environmental disaster that occurs slowly and gradually and may cause severe damage to the fertile Nile Valley.

The Great Resurrection Dam

Almost the entire population of Egypt is concentrated along the Nile, especially in Alexandria and Cairo and along the delta near the Suez Canal. The Nile Delta is the area in northern Egypt where the mouth of the Nile River to the Mediterranean Sea is found, similar to the Greek letter Delta. In the delta there is an area of ​​stable, fertile and agriculturally good land, in contrast to the shifting desert sands around it. In fact, almost the entire population is concentrated in 2 percent of the country's territory (about 20 thousand square kilometers out of about a million square kilometers), therefore, the Nile Valley is one of the densest regions in the world, with a density of 1,540 people per square kilometer. But now, apart from the population explosion, Egypt's Nile Delta is facing danger from both land and sea.

The new threat to the Nile comes in the form of a massive dam that Ethiopia is building on the sources of the Blue Nile, which supplies 59 percent of Egypt's water. The "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" is supposed to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity for the citizens of Ethiopia, most of whom (about 75 percent) currently have no access to electricity. Also, the sale of surplus electricity to other countries in the region may bring in a billion dollars into the Ethiopian state coffers every year. However, the dam will also prevent the river's water from flowing freely further down the Nile to Sudan and from there to Egypt.

This is, of course, a very big problem for Sudan and Egypt, which rely on the Nile water as a source of drinking, agriculture, livelihood and electricity generation for hundreds of millions of people. According to documents leaked to WikiLeaks, the threat of building the dam is so great that at one point government officials in Cairo talked about the possibility of An aerial bombardment or a commando raid that will destroy the dam. The president of Egypt at the time, Mohammed Morsi, said In an interview with the BBC that he is not interested in a war with Ethiopia, but he went on to state that "we are leaving all options open. We are not opposed to projects in the Nile basin, all on the condition that they do not affect or harm the historical and legal rights of Egypt." In his words, Morsi was referring to the colonial agreement signed in 1929 between Great Britain and Egypt, in which it was determined that Egypt would have full control over the river along its entire length, and the countries lying on its banks were prohibited from carrying out any work on the Nile and the tributaries that flow into it, so as not to harm Egypt's water quota.

Despite the militant statements heard in the past, Today, the likelihood of war between the two countries is very low, especially In light of the many domestic problems that Egypt is facing.

Loss of a third of the electricity

New research Published in the Journal of the Geological Society of America (GSA) reveals that during the dam's reservoir filling period, which is expected to last 5-7 years, the flow of fresh water in the Nile to Egypt will be cut by about 25 percent, along with the loss of a third of the electricity produced by the Aswan High Dam. The Aswan High Dam is one of two giant Egyptian dams on the Nile, which began operating in 1965. According to the study, which was led by Jean-Daniel Stanley, a geologist at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, Egypt will face "severe shortages of fresh water and energy by 2025." Agriculture in the delta, which produces about 60 percent of Egypt's food, will also be severely affected due to a lack of water for irrigation.

The GSA study notes that the new dam being built in Ethiopia is just one of a series of environmental threats that Egypt is facing today. The rise in sea level, as a result of global climate change, is one of the main ones. Most of the Nile Delta is located only about one meter above sea level, and according to A study conducted in 2014 By the geologist Ahmed Saflanasser from the Egyptian Assiut University, it appears that a rise of half a meter in sea level will "shrink" the area of ​​the delta by 199 percent.

This is the most conservative scenario and there are more difficult forecasts. So, for example, if the sea level rises by one meter this century, as many climate scientists speculate, a third of the delta may disappear under the Mediterranean Sea. It should be noted that this study did not take into account the possible effects of a more significant increase as predicted In a 2016 study. This study also ignored the fact that there is land subsidence in the delta region, especially along the Mediterranean coast. In addition, the delta soils are depleted (and less fertile) because they are now no longer replenished annually by the 100 million tons of flood sediments from the Nile. Instead, these sediments now sink where the Nile enters the reservoir created by the Aswan High Dam, causing a new delta to form, which is now hidden below the water's surface.

Another danger facing the Nile River, which results from the combination of sea level rise and land subsidence, is the increased penetration of salty seawater into the river water. In Egypt, only 660 cubic meters of fresh water are available each year for each resident, compared to, for example, 9,800 cubic meters in the United States. However, according to Spelnaser's research, saltwater intrusion from a one-meter rise in sea level could endanger more than a third of the fresh water volume in the delta. This is particularly problematic in light of the fact that Egypt's population is expected to double in the next 50 years.

Social, economic and political unrest

If so, how will Egypt, which is already dealing with a faltering economy, population explosion and political instability, deal with these environmental challenges that endanger the country's future?

according to a report Produced in 2011 by the Knowledge Center for Climate Change Preparedness in Israel, a reduction in the flow of the Nile, which will result from a combined climatic and demographic crisis, will cause a shortage of drinking water, the collapse of the agricultural sector and the collapse of the country's development and energy plants. These processes will lead to Egypt needing assistance in importing food for about 100-80 million people. Also, increasing pressures of farmer migration will be felt on Cairo and the other major cities in the country. This process may cause chaos and social, economic and political unrest. Against this background, there may be a significant increase in the power of extremist Islam, which is already visible on the ground, in light of the series of attacks carried out in recent months in Egypt by the Daesh organization.

Arnon Sofer, professor emeritus of geography and environmental sciences from the University of Haifa, who has extensively researched the issues of demography, water and the environment in political and strategic contexts in the countries of the Middle East, predicted this threatening scenario already ten years ago. Even then, a writer expressed concern about the infiltration of millions of refugees from Egypt and Africa against the background of the combined climatic and demographic crisis. He therefore recommended the government to build the border fence with Egypt, which was completed in 2013.

"My forecast for Egypt is very difficult," says Sofer. "I think the Egyptian nation is crumbling, broken, crushed, poor and has no hope. I say this with great sadness because I would like the Egyptian neighbor to be strong."

The main scenario that the experts fear is that Egypt's difficult situation together with the environmental crisis in the Nile may lead to a situation similar to the civil war going on in Syria. Sofer also believes that it is only a matter of time until Egypt reaches such a situation. "I convinced the intelligence that what happened in Syria started with the climate crisis. That's how it starts, even if it's hard to believe."

"Israel has an interest in helping Egypt deal with the crisis, because we share a common border with it, and the consequences for the situation there will greatly affect what is happening here: an increase in the number of environmental refugees trying to infiltrate through the border into Israel, a jump in the amount of smuggling of drugs, women and weapons along the border, and the strengthening of "Extremist Islamist elements such as ISIS who will try to carry out terrorist attacks along the border and may even try to penetrate into Israeli territory," says Sofer. "The destabilization of the Egyptian government as a result of the crisis may also harm relations with Israel, and this is as a result of the Egyptian government taking far-reaching emergency measures that will increase friction along the Gulf of Eilat."

Sofer also points out that Israel helps Egypt a lot, even if it happens under the media radar. According to him, the aid is mainly military, but according to him, Israel, an expert in water-saving irrigation methods, also sends experts who advise Egypt on how to carry out economical irrigation.

And what about sharing Israel's scientific knowledge in the field of seawater desalination to find a solution to Egypt's water problems? "It is not relevant to Egypt," says Sofer. "Egypt does not have the financial capacity to maintain such a plant. And in general, the amount of desalinated water that needs to be produced for Egypt is equal to the amount of all desalinated water in the world today. Who can finance it? Maybe it will be possible to pour water on Hilton, Sheraton, and the other rich hotels, but not much more than that."

These days, another regional cooperation in the field of water desalination is being launched - between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. This collaboration will give birth to the Moval Hamim project, under which a desalination plant will be built near Aqaba, which will supply water to the residents of Jordan, the Arabah and the Palestinian Authority, and will discharge the brine into the Dead Sea. It is possible that with appropriate international funding it will be possible, perhaps even with Israeli technological assistance, to establish desalination plants on the shores of the Mediterranean and the Red Sea that will provide part of the water consumption needed by Egypt in the coming years - and alleviate the expected crisis.

More of the topic in Hayadan:

The damming of the Nile in Ethiopia scares the Egyptians

The famine and the Nile

Who do the Nile waters belong to?