If you reduce the statistical confidence a little - it is also possible to reach 9.21, according to a study by two researchers from the Netherlands who analyzed the best personal records of 100 meter runners between the years 1991-2008
Two researchers from the Netherlands wanted to use the statistics of personal records of the best runners over 18 years, to estimate where it is possible to reach. Sander Smiths from the AZL Institute in the city of Hirlan, and John Inmel from Tilburg University in the Netherlands conducted statistical analyzes of the achievements of 100 meter runners during the period between January 1991 and June 2008 (the eve of the Beijing Olympics). They constructed what they call the extrinsic value index, based on a number calculated in high-order statistics. They concluded that a record likely to be reached in the coming years is 9.51 for men and 10.33 for women. The study was published about a month ago
The sample of the two included 762 men and 479 women from among the senior athletes. A table was built for each athlete with his personal records in the competitions held between those years. The results of the men tested ranged from 9.72 to 10.30 seconds and the women's from 10.65 to 11:38.
The extreme value theory deals with the statistical problem surrounding the far part of the distribution of the probability tail. It provides mathematical tools used to estimate extreme values and end points reached by the voyage. This ability has many applications such as in hydrology (flood prevention), finance, insurance, meteorology and engineering. In the present article they referred to the most popular event in athletics - the 100 meter race for men and women. They wanted to use the theory to calculate how fast one could run, meaning they were interested in the ultimate record.
Most of the researchers who dealt with the ultimate world record referred to the development of world records over time and extrapolated the trend towards the future. This approach makes use of a limited number of past records and therefore provides limited estimates. Our approach is based on the personal best times of top athletes. As a result we can say what the record will be in the coming years and not what they will read 500 years from now.
It turns out that personal bests are a rapidly changing thing. If they had relied only on the data of the years 1991-2005 and omitted the years remaining until the end of the sample, the extreme value they would have reached is 9.37, and this is because in that year - 2005, the rate of improvement of the personal achievements of the active runners at that time led their model to estimate that any of them will be able to reach 9.29. I wonder what their model will say when Bolt's record from yesterday is inserted into it.
If you are willing to give up a little on the security and go for a reliable profit (a field within which the correct result (statistically) of 95% is found with a certain probability, you can reach 9.21 for men and 9.88 for women.
Bolt claimed that he is able to reach up to 9:40 seconds, and according to his run it seems that he retains the option of breaking more records.
For news on YNET about last night's run, which also includes a video of the competition
For news about the research in a scientific blog
Roi Cezana also participated in the preparation of the news
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Something apparently illegal is happening in Jamaica, the growth rate of runners there suddenly in such a quantity and with such results is strange. Although there were always runners there. They trained once in the US. Now everyone stayed on the island. I wonder if anything unrelated will be discovered. I'm sure there is something wrong with the runners from the little island.
The black runners who run short sprints are not from Africa. The black runners who are from Africa and are leaders in their field are in the long runs - and there you need a completely different body structure (which they have, a completely different body structure).
Usain Bolt brings a very "adapted" physique to this run, especially very large steps that are not at the expense of speed.
I hope it will happen, the article gave room for optimism.
What I remember from some article in National Geographic is that the lower part of the feet of some people of certain African origins is lighter (not because of the bone density) but there are other suggestions for explanations like, for example. It:
http://www.pponline.co.uk/encyc/0416.htm
The comments about the meaning of running faster (even from a second director) remind me of the joke about the two friends running away from a bear that is walking and catching up to them.
One of them tells the other "Leave, there's no point, he's running fast from us and we won't be able to escape".
The other answers him: "I don't need to run fast from the bear! It's enough that I run faster than you!"
You talk about the issue of running as if from some kind of football assumption of "the USA beat Germany, Germany beat Brazil and hence Brazil will lose to the USA..." - My intention is that Usain Bolt is a sprinter who runs at incredible speed, and that Usain Bolt is black , hence a better black sprinter in the future will reach, according to statistical math calculations, a result of 9.5 or below. Each sprinter is different and Usain Bolt is a phenomenon that, in my opinion, may bring the industry to a standstill in terms of records in the future.... This is, of course, until people are specially engineered for this purpose.
As far as I know the fastest runners are Americans of African descent (like Bolt).
In an evolutionary way, it can be explained that since the negro slaves were taken on an arduous journey of hundreds of kilometers from their villages in difficult conditions and tens of percent of them died on the way, those who remained are supposed to be more robust, of course this does not explain why it works in running short distances, but that is also something.
Well, now I will hide myself completely. After all, all sports competitions are essentially a scientific experiment whose purpose is to examine the development of the human body, its natural abilities and the changes that occur in it over time. This way you can actually see the evolution in real time. Maybe even the final result of the fastest man in the world is less important than the top average of the fastest runners in the world.
What does it matter how many hundredths of a second someone can run faster?
Of course it's fun to watch competitions, to think you're watching some significant event. But overall it's just entertainment.
If someone runs a hundred meters in 5 seconds tomorrow, I don't think it will change anything.
A small change in a particular garden can do wonders
In less than two decades we will see mutant sports stars who will break all possible records
They will pass all the drug tests and be found kosher
For Capricorns, there is no doubt that there is a point where the excitement becomes excessive and disturbing,
But do you believe that people of African descent suffer from it in swimming?
After all, you yourself said that the density differences are very small...
And on the other hand, the swimming suits are exactly trying to compensate for these differences.
to my father :),
In my opinion, the belief in evolution entails controversies.
As there are probably disagreements between the best evolutionists and opinionated people wherever they are.
For me, evolution is a multi-generational development in existence over time.
But not necessarily, for example, Darwinian evolution.. and this with all due respect to the universities.
That's why I preferred to use a cultural context..
On the other hand, if we're talking about evolution... I'll give us an interesting point to think about:
Has there ever been a correlation between the achievements of different sports and the quality of the sperm/eggs? 🙂
Would you "bet" that Mr. Bolt's sperm cells, for example, are "faster" than average..? 🙂
Reminds me of an episode of the old Beck Rogers series where there is an episode where he participates in the world championship in sports and there is a bar next to him that looks like a pole vault that is 6~7 meters high,
And a man comes and jumps him to a normal height. 😀
I did not believe that I would see a result that is 9.5X, but yesterday they proved that it is possible.
It is interesting in the longer term of decades and hundreds of years what is the maximum result that a person can achieve.
To sparrow, on this site there is no controversy regarding the word evolution or the existence of evolution, just like in universities.
sparrow,
Buoyancy is important up to a certain point,
Beyond that point, excess buoyancy impairs a person's ability to move through the water.
Anyone who dives will be able to tell you that a side effect of the diving suits is increased buoyancy which impairs the ability to swim.
Cheetah does it in 6 seconds
"And it is more difficult for them (again relatively) to swim than for people who are not of African descent.
(Less compressed bones = more buoyancy which impairs the ability to move quickly in water)."
Think again about what you wrote…
First of all, if it is an increased buoyancy, it does not harm the ability to swim, but on the contrary,
See all the developments in the new suits where the emphasis applied is actually technologically increased buoyancy.
In addition, I believe that an evolutionary explanation can definitely be given, but due to the disputes surrounding the word evolution..
I personally prefer to say culture..
As far as I know, Africans have a long and multi-year running culture of enormous magnitudes.
Whereas swimming actually almost not at all.
I think if you give Africans enough time they will also become professional and adapt to swimming..
And they will see unprecedented achievements in the field of swimming as well.
If we continue like this we will turn into electrons over the years and reach the speed of light
Ariel
Yes, they are used to running away from lions
To the respondent 2
I don't have an evolutionary explanation for why this happens
But there is a physiological explanation for how this happens,
I once saw the explanation in National Geographic, I hope I remember it correctly.
The program claims that the bone structure of people of African descent is less dense,
And for this reason it is (relatively) easier for them to run,
And it is more difficult for them (again relatively) to swim than for people who are not of African origin.
(Less compressed bones = more buoyancy which impairs the ability to move quickly in water).
These are very small bone density differences, but at the levels of a super athlete measured in tenths, hundredths and even thousandths of a second, it makes all the difference.
On the other hand, it was in the program from 3-4 years ago,
Maybe someone here will have newer explanations.
the subject is somewhat amusing,
I remember that after Bolt's run in Beijing one of the newspapers (I don't remember which one - I'll try to find the article),
Published an article by an "expert" who explained that the limitations of the human body will never allow us to drop from 9.60
I wonder if yesterday in front of the TV he said to himself "oopss..."
It's really interesting that all the runners who reached the final are of African descent, does anyone have a successful evolutionary explanation?
he's amazing