According to researchers at the University of East Anglia who compared the Earth to some of the planets discovered outside the solar system, they estimate that since the life span on Earth is much shorter than the life of the Sun, and since the formation of man required 75% of the time of the formation of life, the conclusion is that a planet may go through a life cycle Pay without any reason
Conditions that allow life on Earth will be possible for at least another 1.75 billion years. This is according to a study by astrobiologists at the University of East Anglia.
The findings published in the journal Astrobiology reveal the expected duration of life on Earth, based on the distance from the Sun and the temperatures at which liquid water exists.
The researchers turned to the stars to examine the issue. They compared recently discovered exoplanets and investigated the potential of each to support life.
The team of researchers led by Prof. Andrew Vashby from the School of Environmental Sciences of the University of East Anglia says: "We used the concept of the 'living zone' to make these estimates - the reference is to the distance from the central sun of the system where the temperatures would allow liquid water to exist on the surface."
"We also used models of stellar evolution to estimate the end of the life period - when it will no longer be possible to live in the life zone. We estimate that Earth will exit the habitable zone at some point in 1.75-3.25 billion years from now. After it reaches the turning point, the earth will be in the hot zone of the sun, where the temperatures will be high and the days will evaporate. We will then experience a complete extinction of all life on Earth."
"Of course, living conditions for humans and other complex creatures will be impossible much sooner - and this will be accelerated by anthropogenic (man-made) climate change. Humans will be in trouble even from small changes in temperature, and towards the end only bacteria living in niche environments will be able to withstand heat."
If we look back over a similar period of time, we know that there was life at the unicellular level on Earth. The insects were created 400 million years ago, the dinosaurs 300 million years ago and the flowering plants 130 million years ago. Modern humans from the anatomical point of view have only been on earth for 200 thousand years, so you can see that it takes a lot of time for intelligent life to develop.
The length of time a planet is habitable is important because it tells us about the potential for complex life to form that takes longer to develop. "Examining the indices of existence of life is useful because it allows us to explore the potential for existence of life on other planets, and to understand what stage life is in elsewhere in the galaxy.
"Of course, most evolution depends on luck, so this is not certain, but we know that intelligent beings like humans may not appear within a few million years of the formation of life because we know that it took us 75% of all the time potential for life on our planet to develop. We believe that the story is similar everywhere else."
About a thousand planets have been discovered so far and their discoveries have been verified outside the solar system. The researchers examined some of them as examples and studied the development of life zones in solar systems over astronomical and geological periods. "Surprisingly, predictions based on the living area alone have not been developed to date, so we had to develop such methods. Other scientists have used complex models to make estimates for Earth alone, but they are not suitable for use on other planets.
"We compared the Earth to eight planets that are in the habitable zones of their Sun, including Mars. We discovered that stars orbiting suns with a smaller mass than the sun tend to spend more time in the habitable zone."
"One of the planets to which we adapted the model is Kepler 22b, whose duration of stay in the habitable zone is estimated at 4.3-6.1 billion years. An even more surprising planet is Gliese 581d, which has an impressive period at its disposal for the development of life - more than the age of the universe so far, about 42.4-54.7 billion years. This planet may be warm and inviting for a period of time 10 times longer than the lifetime of our entire solar system."
"As of today, a planet that is exactly parallel to the Earth has not yet been discovered, but it is absolutely possible that an Earth-like planet residing in the habitable zone of its star will be found within a radius of 10 light years from the Earth - very close from an astronomical point of view. However, it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach it with our current technology."
"If we ever need to move to another planet, Mars is probably our best chance. It is very close and will remain in the habitable zone until the end of the Sun's life - six billion years from now."
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24 תגובות
I promise you that we will have to start moving the Earth away from the sun already in 100 to 1000 years.
Remember the little topic called global warming?
That's it, that's why.
Actually it is written in the article: "Earth will leave the zone of life at some time in 1.75-3.25 billion years from now"
A bit stressful!! - Can you check again and come back with a slightly more accurate answer? Need to get organized.
Oh, almost 2 billion years? You should start buying cans.
I just want to add that in most cases, those who try to imagine the distant future, miss big.
If, for example, humans will only be a brain connected to a cyborg body? Or will they abandon biology completely and become humanity 2.0?
What is 10,000 years to sail in space for them? They are all files on a drive connected to a robotic body.
You know what? It is also possible to give up the robotic body and simply launch yourself via the Internet into a robotic body that is waiting for you on Mars.
What happened to you, how little flight I find in you
הצהרה
Before 3000 AD we could place the Earth itself at any point we wanted in the solar system.
You are of little faith, talking about how to drive poor spaceships and I am talking about driving planets.
Bet I'm right?
But, what a bright and nice night
full moon
So please respond gently
Sabdarmish Yehuda
Well, then we are going to do it in a billion years, are there any solutions??
Bussard's head. Both deflects particles from the spacecraft's path, and collects interstellar hydrogen and uses it for nuclear fusion to accelerate the spacecraft and slow it down as it approaches the target.
Apart from that, it is very useful that in a billion years we will be able to move the Earth to more pleasant areas of the solar system (or of a completely different solar system). Details from Larry Niven, Vernon Vingee and Roger McBride Allen.
Assaf, he is not quoting stupid people, but people who were then in high positions in the field of the things that were said. Regarding the train, they thought that the train would not be able to reach over 70 km/h, because all the air would be pumped out at such speeds, therefore the example with the rock is not relevant...
Nissim, you are quoting nonsense because even the people of old realized that a bird is heavier than air and there is no problem rolling a rock at a speed of more than 70 km/h. I can quote stupid people today, but that doesn't mean it's common knowledge.
point
If the particle flow is significant, this flow can be used to propel the spacecraft. Think of a jet engine, on steroids….
Warp engine that folds the expanse of space
Quantum entanglement that will transfer information instantly between the ends of space
And go document what else they will discover in the coming hundreds and thousands of years
Eventually they will succeed in breaking the light speed barrier
period, cosmic particles you mean electrons and such?
You can flip them by using a super magnet right?
point,
You didn't think until the end that this large artificial brain would be able to think of a solution to the problems you mentioned, but that's okay, no one is smarter than the "artificial brain" 🙂
In any case, the solution could be warp propulsion, and then there would be no particles that would collide with the spaceship, because it does not really move in space... the problem is the enormous amount of energy that is needed to create a distortion in space - but currently we are testing Alcubier's solution, which reduces the amount of energy needed, which is still Outrageous, but maybe one day...
Miracles, they said, not I said. Many things were said and what they said or did not say is not evidence of anything.
To accelerate a spacecraft close to the speed of light at 1g for 20 years and then decelerate for another 20 years would require energy equivalent to converting the entire Earth into pure mc^2 energy. This could still be overcome perhaps with a creative way of inventing antimatter.
But there is no practical way to solve the problem of the collision with cosmic particles that will vaporize the spaceship.
It is more likely that they will succeed in creating a large artificial brain that will be smarter than all of humanity combined and then we will be redundant.
Shuki - but for the humans it will probably be 1.75 for the Japanese, so you still have to stress 🙂
Just the title is stressful with the 1.75 billion. In the body of the article it says 1.75-3.25...
I agree with miracles, technology is developing and things that seem impossible today, may and will be self-evident in a hundred years or more, just as a hundred years ago in total, no one would have believed that every person would have in their pocket a communication device for the whole world that is also a navigation, information, calculation device , photography, and what not actually 🙂
A mindset of "it's impossible" won't get us anywhere
point
They said that a train could never go 70 km/h. They said that a heavier than air craft would never fly.
So they said...
It is not possible for a vehicle to reach another planet. It will disintegrate long before it reaches the star.
At high speeds any particle that collides with the spaceship will tear a part of it. And in interstellar space there are many, many particles.
The vehicle will evaporate for him long before he reaches some planet.
MouthHole
If we find a means of transportation that moves very close to the speed of light, its passengers will have no problem going from one end of the visible universe to the other, because their time will be greatly extended compared to the time on Earth and the distances they will measure between the stars will be very short compared to the same distances as we measure them from here.
The operation will still be difficult because it is not clear how they will decide where to fly: if we send a probe to check what the situation is on this or that planet, even though from the probe's point of view the journey will be short, the inhabitants of the Earth will experience it as very, very long.
Life on the planet will not survive 1.75 billion years, the Muslims will wipe it out long before that.
Anonymous - you may be right and you may not - it depends a lot on finding a new fuel (because we will run out of natural fuels in a few hundred years). The truth is that there is also the physical issue - what are the chances that we will invent a means of transportation that reaches almost the speed of light? And even then - even if we succeed it doesn't mean we can get too far away (because the distances between stars are really big).
Evolution is not linear
Therefore their research is unnecessary
If it took man 200 thousand years to change from the state of a simple animal to what we are today, we cannot even imagine what we will become in 1.75 billion years (8750 times 200,000).
But I'm pretty sure that small worries like making our old and forgotten home planet unfit for life won't bother us, because we won't be living (just) on Earth anymore, obviously,
All this, of course, on the condition that we survive all the weapons we produce and the damage we inflict on ourselves.
The development of life is not necessarily static for each planet.
If there is a migration of unicellular organisms (or even more complex life) from one planet to another, there is no meaning in counting the time in which life might develop - because that time was "skipped".