In 2020 we will drive smart, connected and hybrid cars

This is according to a new study by IBM, which also adds that new models will also be developed for use in a car apart from buying a car that we do not need all of its features

IBM has published a new study that predicts the face of the automobile industry in the next decade, and highlights the place and influence of a new generation of consumers and buyers, who will look for smart, connected cars with a hybrid drive, and park in "virtual parking lots."

IBM's "Transportation 2020" study is based on the collaboration between IBM researchers and 125 managers and leaders in the global automotive industry in 15 countries, in an attempt to examine how the industry perceives the significant change that is taking place with the emergence of the new generation of sophisticated consumers.

These consumers are interested in a comprehensive transportation experience - and their list of preferences leads industry experts to predict a process in which flexible transportation services replace the existing behavior pattern of purchasing a private car for multiple use. According to this forecast, smart cars will meet the demand of consumers to receive richer information, offer a safer ride and demonstrate higher environmental responsibility.

IBM's Automotive 2020 study is based on interviews with executives in 15 countries of automakers, parts suppliers and industry leaders. The study encompassed representatives of 85% of the largest car companies in the world, including all ten leading companies at the top of the global sales list. 62% of the interviewees came from the fields of the traditional automobile industry, while the others represent industry associations, government and economic bodies, specialized consulting companies, academic institutions and other organizations. 27% of the interviewees came from major emerging markets - Brazil, Russia, India and China.

The study, entitled "Transportation 2020: Clarification Beyond Chaos", was carried out and written by experts from the IBM Institute for Business Value, which is an independent, multidisciplinary and independent research body, operating within IBM and examining key issues in the world of business and economics, in an attempt to determine the the needs of the industry and to predict the response patterns that will be given by the environment and technology as it operates today.

The expansion of car consumer demands, and their growing ability to receive comprehensive information in the process of choosing the transportation solutions they will use, are expected to change the patterns of buying cars as they are known to us today. IBM's research predicts that customers will expect to purchase or lease a car that offers flexible access to a diverse "parking lot" of different types of vehicles.

In the model that characterizes the automotive world today, consumers are often limited by financial considerations, which oblige them to settle for purchasing a "compromise car", or to purchase a car that offers functions that they will never use. In the new market model envisioned by IBM, each consumer will drive the main car that best suits their day-to-day needs, and will have the option of changing it to another model, as needed. So, for example, someone could drive a small car with low fuel consumption and limited parking requirements throughout the working days during the week - and enjoy an SUV or SUV when he goes on a weekend trip, or go to a family event in a luxurious family car on another evening.

"Traffic and basic transportation will not be enough in an era where consumers enjoy greater power than ever before," say IBM experts. "People want an automotive experience that fits their lifestyle, and allows them to move transparently between life inside the vehicle and the outside world that surrounds them."

The smart car

Today, customers demand more and more information from their cars - and more and more entertainment content that they can enjoy during the trip. All of these come beyond the requirement for safety, cost savings and responsibility for the environment. This combination of requirements promotes the design and production of "smart" cars: those that use electronics to offer navigation assistance, provide broader information about the car and the environment, and offer communication options. Technologies that are expected to become more and more common by 2020 include telematics - real-time performance measurement, remote diagnosis of the car's condition and mechanical performance, and active safety systems - based on the ability to sense and identify the condition of the car in the environment in which it moves, while simultaneously analyzing the special driving patterns of each driver and road conditions At the same time, the cars of the future will offer a variety of entertainment and content options that rely, among other things, on downloading large amounts of data and media. Electronic technologies will also promote innovation in the field of railways.

The end customers will benefit from the new possibilities created by the communication between the vehicles they drive and between warranty cars in the vicinity or along the route of travel, as well as from the communication between the car and the road infrastructure and traffic control systems, signage and traffic lights. The information collected regarding the driver's braking patterns, for example, will be transmitted to other cars in the vicinity - in order to maintain a more correct distance and increase the level of safety. A dynamic and continuous supply of suggestions for alternative travel routes will help customers bypass traffic jams and avoid delays, and active safety systems will prevent accidents.

Alternative drive

Alternative propulsion will continue to be a breeding ground for further innovations, far beyond the year 2020. Hybrid propulsion and advanced battery technologies will advance the automotive world into the era of sustainable and environmentally friendly transportation. Various levels of hybrid propulsion systems are currently in development processes, and the study assumes that by 2020 all new cars will incorporate one or another level of hybridity. Cars based on right-hand fuel cells will be a possible alternative - however, IBM's forecast assumes that only a small part of the cars coming off the production lines in 2020 will already work with this technology. The barriers to the implementation of fuel cell technology are expected to be expensive manufacturing and development processes, as well as the demand for new infrastructures. The biofuel will benefit from a share in investments, while increasing the weight of the biofuel that is not based on food plants.

Based on the extensive research, IBM defined five key areas that are expected to create differentiation between the successful car manufacturers of 2020 and those who will occupy the lower places on the list. IBM experts say that car companies must adopt new patterns of mobility perception, including sophisticated and advanced models of car ownership and its use, with possible integration with other means of transport: for example, one can think of a car waiting to be used when getting off the train - and standing at their service of others during hours when the user does not need it. In the field of automotive retailing and sales to the end customer, IBM sees a need for new ways of communicating with customers, and for the development of a new value chain that will regulate the relationship between manufacturers, distributors and marketers.

The increasing complexity of vehicles requires simplification that will ensure ease of use. As cars become more and more connected, the electronics and software integrated into them become more and more complicated. IBM recommends that the manufacturers of the various parts and components that are integrated into the automotive industry create uniform and common processes, and be based on standards that will allow innovation from the direction of the traditional suppliers as well as new suppliers entering this world from new directions - all in order to most efficiently reach the integrated product, in the form of the car.

According to the IBM research editors, in order to deal with the increasing costs of innovation in the automotive sector, companies must expand their corporate innovation network and establish a partnership approach beyond their existing suppliers. Close ties with companies in other industrial fields, especially electronics, energy and services, will become essential.

The automobile industry should operate on a global basis, balancing between the main manufacturers and their sub-suppliers, and referring to the conditions of the business and social environment at each site where the development, production and marketing processes are carried out together.

"In view of this significant and chaotic change, clarifying the overall picture will require sweeping and rapid action from the automotive industry. The two areas that offer the greatest opportunity are meeting the rising demand from customers, for increasing consideration of environmental issues, and the use of technology to change the way the industry develops new products and brings them to the market," say the study's editors.