Climate / experts estimate that although this year's "El Nino" will be weaker than 1998, this year's temperatures may be higher
Ice shelf collapse in West Antarctica, in March this year
2002 was probably one of the two hottest years on earth since the end of the 19th century. Now climate experts claim that the temperatures in 2003 will be even higher. According to estimates, there is a 50% chance that in the coming year the temperature in the world will be equal to that measured in 1998, and may even be higher than the record set this year, following the "El Niño" phenomenon.
"El Nino" is a periodic climatic phenomenon, in which the currents of the Pacific Ocean cause the atmosphere to warm. The phenomenon in 1998 was the most severe ever measured. According to experts, a new "El Nino" is now developing. The assessment is that this time the phenomenon will be relatively weak, but according to them, the general warming trend is expected to cause the temperature to rise to new highs.
The main means, which is used to monitor the general climate change in the world, is the "global average of the soil temperature". This average is calculated based on the weighting of hundreds of measurements of soil temperature around the world. From the figure nothing can be concluded about the temperature in specific places, but it is used as a means of measuring the long-term trend of global warming. From this average it appears that we are in the hottest period in the last millennium - when the trend is for continued warming.
Between 1880 and 2001 the global average of the soil temperature was about 13.8 degrees Celsius. In 1998 the figure was about 14.4 degrees, and according to the estimate, in 2002 the average was about 14.38 degrees Celsius. There has also been an increase in the rate of temperature increase: for the entire 100 years of the 20th century, the average temperature increased by one degree Fahrenheit. However, since 1976 the rate of increase has increased, and it stands at about three degrees every decade.
A clear illustration of the warming trend was given, for example, in the Greenland region. Last summer, the most significant thawing in the last 24 years was measured on the ice surface in Greenland (during which the ground conditions are monitored on the spot using satellite photos).
The warming may be the result of a natural change, but according to the experts it is almost impossible to separate it from the increase in the emission of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" from chimneys and cars. The countries of the European Union, Japan and other industrialized countries have already approved the "Kyoto Protocol" - which, from the moment of its application, will oblige them to use measures to reduce the emission of harmful gases. It is also possible that in the US the policy regarding the charging of the use of such measures is being re-examined: White House officials said in December that President Bush is no longer entrenched in the position he previously announced - that until 2012 no measure should be taken to reduce gas emissions, other than voluntary measures.
While the warming trend of the ground is an issue that is almost undisputed, there is now a debate about whether a similar warming is also occurring in the atmosphere. In 1990, a means of measuring the average temperature in the atmosphere was developed. Dr. John Christie from the University of Alabama and a team of experts from NASA formulated a measurement method using instruments found in weather forecasting satellites. In the reports, in which the information collected from the satellites over three decades was analyzed, Christie's team indicated a cooling trend - or only a slight warming - of the atmosphere.
However, now an independent team of American scientists claims that from an analysis he conducted - based on the same data collected from the satellites - it appears that warming is also expected in the upper atmosphere, at a rate at least three times higher than that estimated by Christie's team. This estimate corresponds to the warming trend on the ground and to the predictions of computer models.
In the past year, the two teams have had several arguments about the conflicting conclusions from the satellite data. At the December meeting, Dr. Christie and the head of the independent team, Frank Wentz, founder of a satellite data analysis company, agreed to reveal more information about how they arrived at the results of their research.
