Delays in reporting new cases endanger the plans to prevent the epidemic
You found Simon
Direct link to this page: https://www.hayadan.org.il/birdflu090505.html
Cases of people being infected with bird flu are increasing in Asia, and there are worrying signs that the virus is mutating (genetically changing) into a form that is more easily transmitted. This means that mutant viruses will spread more easily through the population and infect more people. But experts say bureaucratic delays will overwhelm attempts to stop the epidemic as it spreads.
Klaus Storr, who coordinates the influenza program at the World Health Organization, says that there is only one option for the destruction of a spreading epidemic: rapid identification of the cases and treatment of the patients and all people with whom they came into contact with the antiviral drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). Simulation studies suggest that this will only succeed if the steps are taken in a very short time.
The models predict that there will be a very narrow window of opportunity in which to act and eradicate the spread of the epidemic - within 30 days of the discovery of a new case. But the Vietnamese Ministry of Health usually takes two to four weeks to announce a new case.
"This leaves us only a few days to react, and makes stopping the virus highly improbable" says Storr. "Without rapid reporting and detection of new cases, the world is betting on the low (and unproven) chance that we will be able to stop the spread of the epidemic in any case."
On Thursday, May 5.5.05, XNUMX, senior officials from the World Health Organization attended a meeting in Manila, Philippines with government health representatives from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos to discuss the current influenza situation.
Concerns are growing
Since the current bird flu outbreak began, about a year and a half ago, the total number of cases detected has increased to 89, of which 52 have died from the disease. The Ministry of Health in Cambodia announced the latest case on May 5.
To combat the spread of the disease, Vietnamese officials announced this week that Vietnam will vaccinate 600,000 poultry in Ho Chi Minh against the flu. At that time, the European Union advised its members to closely examine and look for signs of the influenza virus in European poultry, including forms with weak pathogenicity (meaning also forms that cause a weak disease). This step reflects growing concerns that even apparently harmless versions of the virus may mutate into more dangerous and violent forms.
In Asia, there are hints that the virus is indeed undergoing changes. "Partial evidence indicates that there may be a change in the epidemiology of the disease," says Stour. "More clusters are being discovered compared to the previous year, elderly people are now contracting the disease, and more cases are being found to be less serious." These characteristics, when taken together, may indicate that the virus is becoming less virulent and more contagious, he says. These findings, which indicate changes in the characteristics of the virus, possibly mark the beginning of the epidemic.
Hard to say
However, the World Health Organization has such poor data that "it is very difficult to assess the current situation," says Stour. It is difficult to know how alarming the situation is, he adds. "Why is the situation similar? It's like you're driving alone, and you hear a noise in your car's engine, but you keep driving, not knowing if it's serious or not."
Storr says the World Health Organization offered help to Vietnam, but the offer was not fully accepted. "The countries where bird flu is spreading do not trust the international agencies, including not the World Health Organization," says Robert Webster, one of the World Health Organization officials who deals with the ecology of influenza viruses in animals. "These countries refrain from giving agencies access to information."
The great fear is that the lack of information, together with new mutations of the virus and a long delay in locating and identifying new cases, may encourage a new epidemic...
The article was adapted from the Nature News website
The bacteria and viruses know
https://www.hayadan.org.il/BuildaGate4/general2/data_card.php?Cat=~~~155765257~~~244&SiteName=hayadan
