The heat waves kill

A study by the Ministry of Environmental Protection sheds light for the first time on the connection between heat waves and the climate crisis and mortality in Israel: each heat wave in Israel results in an average excess death of about 45 people; The damage is especially great in populations over the age of 70

A preliminary study funded by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, conducted by Dr. Dan Yamin and Dr. Erez Shmueli from Tel Aviv University at the invitation of Prof. Nega Kronfeld-Shor, the chief scientist of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, examined the effects of heat waves on mortality in Israel. As part of the study, a preliminary analysis was performed to examine the presence of excess mortality in Israel following heat waves.

The study examined heat waves during the years 2012 to 2020, and analyzed mortality data in Israel (with the exception of Corona) at the same time as the heat waves.

The analysis was carried out in two different ways: one by checking for abnormality in excess mortality according to an existing model (Beitan and colleagues, 2020) that characterized the daily mortality pattern in Israel and based on daily data of temperature, humidity, and acute respiratory infection, and the second by comparing the weeks In them there was a heat wave for the next few weeks (regardless of the model predictions).

With both methods, it was found that in Israel there is a sharp and clear increase in mortality in the weeks when there were heat waves. On average, each heat wave led to the death of about 45 people, whose lives might have been saved if there had been adequate preparation.

In summing up the eight heat wave cases examined in the study, an excess mortality of 363 people was found. For example, after the heat wave that started on April 26, 2013, 871 people died, while the model forecasts expected a weekly mortality of 811 people (excess mortality of 60 people). Most of the abnormality in mortality was observed in adults over the age of 70, who accounted for 88.5% of the total number of deaths following a heat wave. This figure in itself is a deviation from the norm, since normally this population makes up 70-73% of the total number of deceased, and indicates the high sensitivity of this population to heat waves.

Studies in different countries in the world have found that not only the death rate is on the rise as a result of heat waves, but also the number of hospitalizations, the length of hospitalization and healthcare expenses are increasing significantly. The reasons for hospitalization include cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases (damage to blood vessels in the brain), acute respiratory distress syndrome and kidney diseases, the patients of which are more sensitive to heat, as well as psychiatric diseases and dehydration. Also, studies worldwide indicate that the effect of heat waves on hospitalizations and mortality is particularly high in adults, women, and populations of low socio-economic status.

The frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves all over the world, including in Israel, are on the rise, and the rate of increase is higher than expected so far. Compared to floods or fires, where the direct physical impact on the economy and human health is clear, the impact of heat waves is more complex, and mainly affects vulnerable populations.

It is of great importance to understand the medical consequences of heat waves in order to prevent them and prepare for them as much as possible, in order to reduce premature mortality, suffering and medical expenses. Most of the medical consequences of heat waves can be prevented with the help of early preparation and warning systems that are also economically efficient. The Ministry of Environmental Protection and government ministries are working within the climate crisis preparedness plan, in order to prepare for heat waves and the expected increase in their intensity, frequency and duration.

Minister of Environmental Protection, Tamar Zandberg: "The climate crisis is a real threat to health and life. The study shows the impact of heat waves and the climate crisis on excess mortality, especially in the weak populations. The study points to the urgent need for climate crisis preparedness actions led by the Ministry of Environmental Protection together with the government, as well as the need for all government bodies and local authorities to prepare for heat waves, in order to reduce premature mortality, suffering and medical expenses."

The chief scientist of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Prof. Nega Kronfeld-Shor: "Compared to floods or fires, where the direct physical impact on the economy and human health is clear, the impact of heat waves is more complex. The current study, which took a conservative approach, found an effect of heat waves on mortality in Israel. It is of great importance to understand the medical consequences of heat waves in order to prevent them and prepare for them as much as possible, in order to reduce suffering, medical expenses, and premature mortality, especially in vulnerable populations. Most of the medical consequences of heat waves can be prevented with the help of early assessments and warning systems that are also economically efficient, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection works within the framework of the climate change assessment program, in order to prepare for heat waves and the expected increase in their intensity, frequency and duration."

for the scientific article