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The singularity is almost here

About Ray Kurzweil's revolutionary book - The Singularity is Near

The cover of Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near (in English)
The cover of Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near (in English)

Ray Kurzweil (Kurzweil) is an extremely interesting and important person who unfortunately most people have never heard of. Kurzweil is a futurist, computer expert and engineer, who founded various technological companies in the fields of artificial intelligence, and has been at the head of them since the XNUMXs. Kurzweil is a cluster man, and in my personal opinion one of the most important writers, men of science and spirit today.

Kurzweil was born in the USA and started programming in 1960 when he was only 12 years old. In his youth he developed a computer that played the piano on its own. At the age of twenty, he sold his first company, which developed software that adapted a personal academic learning path for high school graduates, by filling out a questionnaire. Since then, Kurzweil managed to head many companies, some of which were sold for huge sums. Among other things, he was one of the first developers of OCR software for writing recognition; automatic speech programs that read text to the blind; The first synthesizer capable of playing the sounds of a real piano and other digital musical instruments, and a successful speech recognition software (sold to Scansoft for about one hundred million dollars in 1997). Kurzweil was also involved in the development of technologies in different and varied fields such as virtual reality, financial investments, military developments, medical imaging, digital art and more.

Kurzweil won countless different awards and titles for his inventions, scientific achievements and books, including highly prestigious awards such as the National Medal of Technology, which is considered the most prestigious award in the US in the field of technology, as well as an award from the US Patent Office that awarded him half a million dollars.

In his latest book "The singularity is near" Kurzweil paints a picture no less than amazing. According to him, by the beginning of the twenties of the current century, the power of computers will allow us to reach the amount of calculations that are carried out in the brain. At that time, we will already have a deep understanding of how the brain works, which will allow us to create software at a high level, thus actually creating artificial intelligence (AI) at a level very similar to that of humans. Until the mid-forties of the current century we will continue to develop our capabilities, and at a certain point the computers will take control and continue with constant and accelerated development. The computers (if you can call them that at this stage) will continue to advance and develop, and each generation will be much faster, stronger and more efficient, so the rate of improvement will only increase. Kurzweil predicts that in the year 2045 the singularity will occur - the turning point in history, following which it is impossible to know what will happen and after which humanity will change beyond recognition.

The road to these miraculous abilities and the accompanying deep philosophical and moral issues is not as long as one might assume. Kurzweil outlines a direct path to the ultimate integration between man and machine and to the development of artificial intelligence immeasurably higher than the total intelligence of all humans today. The way there goes through three important revolutions which Kurzweil calls - GNR.

G - Genetics - the genetic revolution is already here. The deciphering of the human genetic code and the billions currently invested in the various research institutes are already giving their signals today, in the development of new medicines, tests and healing methods; developing more durable, more nutritious and better food at any scale; Identifying and stopping epidemics, preventing genetic diseases and more. Developments are being made at an exponential rate (increasingly) and are already affecting our lives in a comprehensive way today. By the mid-twenties of this century, we will be able to filter out all the genetic defects from our children and give them new traits that are not found in their parents' genes. We can also use the technology to produce much more effective medicines, personalized for patients, produce food from crops that can grow even in very difficult climate conditions, and in this way feed the growing world population.

N - Nanotechnology - the nanotechnology revolution whose buds we already see today will develop in the late twenties and blossom in the thirties. Nanotechnology focuses, among other things, on the production of robots on a molecular and even atomic scale, and this means that we can create tiny robots the size of cells and even molecules. Such nanorobots would contain enough memory, energy, computing power, and the ability to communicate with other nanorobots and the outside world by wireless means, so that we could actually create any material we could imagine. This is a kind of XNUMXD atom printer that will allow you to create anything - diamonds, powerful computers, coffee, trees, animals and even humans. If we succeed in duplicating human beings with absolute precision one for one, with all the neurons, chemicals and cells that make them up, then in fact we will be able to create a teleport - a device that will allow people and objects to be moved from one place to another instantly, like in "Star Trek", although we will have to find solutions to destroy The "source" after the transfer...

Such nanorobots will be able to move around inside our body and examine everything that is happening - to warn about diseases, blockages in the blood vessels, tumors and more, also they will be able to actively fight viruses and bacteria, while releasing medicines and chemicals in precise doses directly to the appropriate places. By neutralizing the diseases that lead to death such as strokes, heart attacks, cancer and more, life expectancy is expected to increase significantly. The nanorobots will also be able to enter the brain and communicate directly with the neurons and other parts of the brain. This will have some very significant effects:

1. We will be able to accurately map the brain and its mode of activity, thereby definitively and completely understanding how the brain works and how intelligence works, which will lead to the artificial intelligence (R) revolution, which I will expand on later.
2. The nanorobots in the brain will be able to "dress up" the neurons, thus creating a complete illusion of virtual reality (just like in the Matrix). We can create a virtual world that will be completely realistic for us in every respect - feeling, emotions, senses - everything! The difference is that we can control our world. We can choose how we look, where we move around, even what the laws of physics will be. Connectivity to the Internet (or rather, whatever the Internet will be in the future), will allow us to communicate perfectly with other people, or rather with the virtual images of other people.
3. Through direct communication with the neurons, the nanorobots will also be able to integrate and add to the way the brain works - adding memory, improving calculation speed, recording dreams and thoughts, transferring thoughts and feelings from person to person and more. By integrating technological computing power into the biology of the brain we will become cyborgs with incredible abilities, leaving biological humans far behind. In fact, we will break the evolutionary barriers that limit us greatly today in various fields.

R - Robotics - the third revolution that Kurzweil talks about, the one that will be the last step on the way to the point of singularity, is the robotics revolution (actually, Kurzweil mainly refers to artificial intelligence as the important factor in this revolution). We are already witnessing the integration of robots in many fields - in industry, entertainment, home maintenance and more, but this is only the beginning of the revolution that will break out in the mid-thirties of the twenty-first century. The robots will not only have physical properties that combine strength, flexibility and originality, they will also be able to be of any size - starting (as mentioned) from the size of molecules (nanorobots) to gigantic robots in space. But the impressive physical features of the robots are overshadowed by the high intelligence they will have and which will lead to the point of singularity. This may sound completely fictional, but Kurzweil outlines a short and direct path to the singularity:

As mentioned, already around the year 2020 we will have the necessary computing hardware to create a one-to-one simulation of all the processes operating in the brain. During the twenties, we developed better and better models of how the brain works, among other things by precise mapping in real time using nanorobots that will be inserted into the brain itself. The complete understanding of how the brain works will allow us to create accurate models of the brain and thus create artificial intelligence equal in quality to that of humans. But that will not be the end of the process. The ever-increasing computing power, combined with a good understanding of the processes in the brain, will lead to the development of higher and higher intelligence, until at some point it can take on the ability to self-improve. From here to the point of singularity the road is short, the artificial intelligence will become stronger and better than the intelligence of all humanity and up to billions of times more than the totality of all humanity.

Popular culture has made intelligent computers a futuristic threat. We all know the fictional scenarios where the "machines" take over the human race. We've seen them in movies like The Matrix, Terminator, Me, Robot and countless other books and movies. But where is the line between man and machine? Do we have reason to be afraid, or maybe this is a revolution that we would all like to take part in?

In his previous book, "The Age of Thinking Machines", Kurzweil discusses the question of the boundary between man and machine. Someone who suffers from hearing problems and uses a hearing aid, which is actually a small speaker that is attached to the ear, and someone who uses a wireless Bluetooth headset connected to their cell phone, is a person for everything and there is no debate about that. Innovative technologies allow the blind to see through video cameras that are connected directly to the optic nerves in the brain and allows the disabled to control the wheelchair and their environment through a direct connection of the computers to the brain. There is almost no one who would question the humanity of those who would use such technologies to improve their lives. The people are the same people with the same mental abilities and thoughts they had before. But what about implanting a chip in the brain that will allow Alzheimer's patients to function normally while the chip affects and monitors their brain activity? Does the person remain the same person here too when there is a direct intervention in his brain activity? It seems that most people will agree that there is no decrease in the level of "humanity" of those who will use this technology. And what if a person manages to expand his brain's memory capacity by non-biological means? It may sound strange, but dozens of private and public research institutes in the world are working on achieving this exact goal - expanding the brain's capabilities through technological means. Is a person whose improved memory will allow him to remember in detail thousands of phone numbers and addresses as well as events from the past more accurately, etc. less human? Here already our knowledge about what is "human" begins to be subject to personal interpretation. And what about extensions of the brain that will allow us to significantly expand the brain's calculation capabilities, a connection to the network that will allow immediate learning of any topic in the world (just like in the movie The Matrix), reading and passing thoughts from person to person, and greater calculation capabilities than all the computing power that exists in the world today? Will such an extreme combination of man and machine still be called human?

Kurzweil also paints a future where we will finally be able to "cheat" death and live almost forever. He is not only talking about future generations but first and foremost about himself. Kurzwil, born in 1948, currently lives a very healthy lifestyle. Some would say insanely healthy. He swallows hundreds of pills and food supplements every day, engages in sports and monitors his body non-stop while balancing it as much as possible on an ongoing basis. According to him, although at the time of writing the book he was 58 years old, his body functions as if it were 40. Kurzweil's goal is to delay aging until the arrival of the genetic revolution, which he foresees already in the next decade. This revolution will allow him to last until the next great revolution - nanotechnology (thirties of the current century). The nanotechnology revolution will give him a long enough life to be an active participant in the artificial intelligence revolution that will give him the eternal life he desires. According to him there is no reason to put up with death just because throughout history everyone has died until today. We can and should change the situation.

Kurzweil advocates the approach, according to which artificial intelligence is actually an integral part of evolution. According to this approach, from the moment the first cell was created, there is no escaping the creation of intelligent life that will eventually lead to an artificial intelligence that will far surpass biological intelligence.

A similar approach can be found in the book by Prof. Hagai Netzer and Ami Ben Best - "Journey to Wisdom". In the book, Prof. Netzer and Ben Best argue that organic matter, whatever it is, will eventually lead to intelligence through evolutionary forces, and this in turn will lead to infinitely high artificial intelligence. This high intelligence will be applied to extensive journeys in space. Regardless of where it will be created in the universe, as long as there is no total catastrophe in the form of the destruction of the planet on which this intelligence will develop. By the way, after various calculations and complex hypotheses described in the book, Prof. Netzer and Ben Best's conclusion is that in our galaxy alone there were, or are today, at least 40 million civilizations at least as developed as ours. If we consider that there are about a hundred billion galaxies in the visible universe, we may finally understand that we are not here alone, although I personally am very skeptical about the arrival of aliens on our planet. By the way, Kurzweil actually criticizes the scientific approach that tries to calculate how many intelligences exist in the universe in the book.

In his book, Kurzweil generalizes a wide variety of topics - military technologies, the future of education, virtual and augmented reality, philosophy, molecular physics, chemistry, medicine, history of science, fundamentalism, urban planning, globalization and politics, environmental quality, and a host of other interesting topics, each of which deserves A separate book by itself. This book is so broad that in some cases it seems as if Kurzweil was trying to write a biblical source - a book that encompasses every possible bit related to our lives in the future. In general, it seems a bit as if Kurzweil is trying to found a cult spring - the Singularists - people who understand the future consequences of the Singularity, maintain quality of life and health in order to live forever and implement the necessary processes to integrate into the world of the future. It's not necessarily bad - many books I've read preach a certain lifestyle that reflects the author's opinion, but it's still a bit strange in some cases.

In addition, I must admit that although I have been researching the field of futurism and technology for the past few years, and am a big fan of technological capabilities, the ideas that Kurzweil puts forward in the book sound wild and devoid of any logic, especially because he claims that they are going to take place in the near future and not in hundreds or thousands of years. However, Kurzweil, who has received many criticisms in the past for his optimistic predictions about the future, attaches to each of the predictions long and detailed descriptions of all the steps required on the way to a solution, and presents a multitude of studies, examples and explanations for each of these steps. He does this in such a comprehensive way, including presenting the expected difficulties and the most effective ways to deal with them, that I find it hard to find fault with the ideas he presents. Kurzweil also devotes the last chapter of his book to the criticisms addressed to him and answers them section by section in a meticulous and scholarly manner. Kurzweil also includes many different predictions that he made in the past that came true quite accurately (many of them were made in his previous book "The Age of Thinking Machines"), which adds to his credibility as a future.

But the bottom line and my unequivocal conclusion is: want to buy the book "The singularity is near"! Even if it will take you many months to digest it and even if you only read parts of it, it will enrich your world in a fantastic way and contribute to your knowledge in many important fields.

(This article is taken from Amnon Carmel's blog which deals with futurism, technology, science and more)

69 תגובות

  1. 2023 has arrived, and here it is happening. The prediction is indeed coming true. Not 100% technologically, but almost 100% essentially.
    AI systems are able to create pictures and drawings of a quality equivalent to human artists, including the element of "creativity" and imagination.
    CHATGPT is able to have a perfect conversation, create literary works, suggest gift ideas, write an academic paper, etc., etc., i.e. imitate (???) human intelligence. And there are already those who have used her as a court attorney. There is a system that writes code (software) with a sufficient degree of success, to the point of commercial use.
    So it is true that it is still not a complete artificial intelligence, but it certainly matches the prediction for the early 20s.

  2. 2020 is already here, but most of the capabilities he predicted have not yet matured.
    He in any case exaggerated, both in the final destination and in the schedules.

  3. Kurzweil adds a lot, but is probably wrong in important details that are void in the sixties compared to his general gospels.

    What they thought more of was the wrong general direction - a human being is not only an intelligence but also a soul.
    In fact, the dramatic competition and the point is between human intelligences (for example a person whose intelligence has been upgraded) and between soulless intelligences (called in the movies debates).
    And there may also be a third type of beings that have some type of soul, but are not human in the full sense of the word.

    This is the real war of the future - who will control intelligence? Humanity? Other souls? The soulless?

  4. To Skynet, post 3:
    Don't you think that Ray Kurzweil understands the development of computers a little, much better than a first year computer student?
    Besides, the artificial intelligence will develop and intensify much faster than the human one, because that is all the supercomputers (which will be used to develop this type of intelligence) will do 24 hours a day without any break, without emotional or psychological limitations or memory limitations or distractions - simply We will update their programming in every possible direction and refine (draw conclusions) from this all the information they manage to collect.
    ...and when it comes to a never ending amount of memory, "all the information" they will manage to collect" means filling a bottomless pit!
    Already today, computers are more intelligent than any human on earth - give a supercomputer an "IQ test" and see for yourself.
    What Ray predicts is that soon the computers will be smarter than all of humanity - and there is no doubt in my heart that I will see it later in my life, I wish this day is as close as Ray claims.

    Now a response to "Individual", post 64:
    A wiser can control us, 100% right.
    But you have to ask yourself the following question:
    Why would a "smarter" who feels nothing and wants nothing from us, "want" to control us?
    Computers have no emotions, and they will never want emotions, because it is their "logic" that is impeccable, and such logic sees emotions as something that interferes with logical activity.
    To decide, the computers will scan all the knowledge they can gather on the topic of emotions, and they will see that countless people's lives have been cut short because of their emotions, all wars have been caused by problems with emotions, the human race has destroyed itself and everything it touched in every possible field because of emotions.
    Why would a computer come to the conclusion that it wants such things for itself??
    If we could choose for ourselves if we want to be "emotional" based on human history, I believe we would also choose not to be!
    Do you understand ?
    Computers have no reason in the world to harm humans or anything else that exists in the world.
    They will not bring the end to humanity, but will give humanity a good name and a long life so that the generations born in the 22nd century may have the privilege of witnessing the "death" of the earth!

  5. Hell, instead of creating something that is more than us, let's become one!
    Something smarter than us can control us.
    Kussaemek are retarded scientists who think it's so simple, they will bring the end of humanity.

  6. For the opponent, the level of intelligence of the computers will not affect the continued development of smarter and more intelligent computers than them, the only thing that can prevent them from stopping the continued development is if they develop emotions such as fear!
    But a "being" that does not have emotions (like a computer with awareness), will not be interested in developing them because they will see in humans that emotions limit and make it difficult for a regular existence of rational thought!
    On another topic:
    What is the author of the article's obsession with humanity?
    Is humanity more important than the ability to fulfill any wish (in a private virtual world) in a way that will harm those around you and the environment as well as many dreams in the "real world"?
    And besides, there is no general human agreement that humanity still exists today - some key words:
    Hiroshima and Nagasaki, World War II, genocide, etc.
    I don't know about you, but eternal life where I can do and be whoever/whatever I want, determine what my life will look like from A to Z (in my own world), supreme wisdom and intelligence, perfect selective memory (remember everything I want to remember and remember nothing which I don't want to remember), a world without disease, without suffering, without crime, the possibility to start life anew in the world as I wish and at the age I want to be regardless of my chronological age... - all these things are very magical to me! All these things are better than the "great humanity" which is published in newspapers and seen on television. Do you have to be a cyborg for that? - happily, as long as the process does not involve any suffering. It must be remembered that we, humans, are robots of the earth's nature [I have a nice theory on this topic].
    So far this time, I would love to receive comments on what I wrote in an email to

  7. In short: "Science-glowmania" without meat.
    And in my estimation, another distorted fantasy without taste and smell that will never come true.
    Just one day without electricity sources is enough for all the systems to crash in the chain and man will have to face the real nature himself.

  8. I'm missing a bit of treatment on the subject of the motive for all this singularity... Why would those super intelligent computers (or upgraded humans) who are supposed to bring us to the "long-awaited" singularity decide that this is the proper direction to move forward in? If indeed they will be super intelligent and creative, it is very likely that it will turn out that they have their own interests that do not necessarily correspond to the interests of the current person. Why would they think that progress is something worth investing time and resources in?
    Up to this point in the evolution of the human race (biologically and socially) there were quite clear constraints such as lack of food, the need to reproduce (and the gate of needs in Maslow's pyramid). These constraints brought about the formation of human intelligence and later technological progress. What will be the constraints of that future humanity? After all, there will no longer be a lack of anything - not even self-fulfillment because we will be able to live in a perfect virtual world. What would be the point of existing 🙂 ?

  9. Until the book is translated into Hebrew, one can for the time being "make do" with Dr. David Passig's new book "The Code of the Future" This book also deals with singularity and futurity and draws a lot from Kurzweil's ideas, but compared to Kurzweil's book, Dr. Passig's book is closer to us and deals with In Israel it is available on the shelves of bookstores and in Hebrew.



  10. Hugin:
    I say again.
    What prevents me from creating "God" is not the combination of letters that defines his name (by the way, Aloha is probably more related to "hello" than "God") but the meaning that people try to give it - a meaning that I don't think has any real meaning - whether I make it or if created otherwise.
    If it's just about calling something and it doesn't matter what that name is, I'm pretty sure we've already found someone who called their cat or dog that.

  11. By the way, I read all the articles and comments, it's good that Chaim diverted us a little to another matter,
    It is very interesting to enter and understand your behavior, your sophisticated thoughts..and toys for adults?
    for creating problems-and solving them games.. (boys)

    I've been walking in this world for years and it feels like a UFO..seriously..ha.
    I wonder if they have compiled statistics among boys and girls since the 90s
    Hanan and a few other astronauts.. Bhagaim..) and you.

    And Michael:
    For the natives in Hawaii? The word "Aloha" is "peace", as a principle, it is all that is sublime, high, breathed in,
    The footwear, etc.. If it weren't for this, every creature would swallow itself from too much self-importance.-(to monstrosity)
    Besides, we are all primal creatures for communication..from mother tongue to..every letter and sign..everything pronunciation and patterns
    After all, all patterns repeat themselves in varying variations, so what does it matter.??

  12. Hugin:
    With all due respect to the things I create - I don't think they deserve the title "God".
    All in all, this is a word that people give a certain meaning to, and I cannot (just as no one can, nor can anything that exists in reality) create something that would be justified in calling it that.

  13. Michael
    So, don't imitate the negative mistakes "attributed to him". Create him from the place and the lessons that time
    Educate us to understand them. And this, in the eyes of the examiner, is called greatness, in controlled and moderate proportion.

  14. Hugin:
    I cannot bring back to life the one who never lived.
    It has already been said that in the beginning man created God, but the same God created by man is not the one you are talking about.
    This God lives and exists and continues to kill humanity like any other disease.

  15. Hugin:
    Please, do not abdicate responsibility for your actions.

    There is no reason to erase God. He doesn't do any bad because he doesn't do anything and it is very doubtful if he exists

  16. "They" were also excellent at statistical calculations, with a polished method
    the god from Olympus and replace it with their copied image.
    Someone here is making me start being cruel, which is not in my best spirit... shame on us.

  17. anonymous:
    Regarding the answer is "yes!".
    Please get back to us with the stats after you get answers from everyone.

  18. to the unknown
    It seems to me that you asked the most relevant question for this moment.
    Because of this, I wish you, in the name of many good people, who have done beautiful things for humanity, that you too
    Fulfill for good.

  19. .. and now I noticed that I ignored two whole paragraphs that talk about much of what I wrote.

  20. This article honestly put some fear into me. When I read the potential embodied in existing technologies, it is impossible not to think about the plot of MDB in one way or another, especially on its negative sides.
    Without involving a higher power in the matter (I don't believe in such a thing, and I have no problem with genetic engineering up to a certain level. I'm not talking about interfering with the normal order of nature, I'm talking about what will happen practically), the results of many things from what is written is life for the rich and death for the poor, and a huge excess population.
    I understand that the author's previous book also talks about the moral side of such a future, can anyone verify?
    Anyway, I guess future morality will be adapted to things like teleportation.
    After all, the new individual feels nothing of the 'destruction'.
    (It gives me new ideas about my vegetarianism.)
    It is interesting to think that such technologies sound scary, and in the future its opponents will be equivalent to today's conservative religious people, who oppose the existence of technology (Amish people, only without the religious aspect).
    It is also interesting if genetic engineering to increase intelligence, or AI that will surpass the human brain, will bring destruction to the business, based on a moral conclusion that such things should not exist.

    (Sorry for the messy writing, I know.)

  21. Michael
    From your words it can be understood that you think that I receive the "hand of God" to explain things or phenomena that are difficult or impossible to explain.
    If so I am sorry to inform you that I am not a believer and I did not intend to use it
    In the above term to solve myself. To believe you don't have to be a skeptic and as a skeptic
    The belief is from me onwards.
    I had the honor of "chatting" with you, although I did not enrich my knowledge at all.

  22. lion:
    What made you think I didn't understand what you said?
    I understood them.
    I just don't agree with you.
    It's allowed, isn't it?

    Of course I don't agree with the hand of God you added in your last comment.
    Those who doubt scientific theories but accept the "hand of God" in nature cannot boast of the title of skeptic.

  23. Michael
    I will try to explain myself again. According to my understanding and my worldview for everything that exists
    There is a meaning and probably also a purpose. That is, there is no body in our world and universe that would exist
    one way or another and without exception that has no physical connection or any other connection in any way whatsoever with any body, object or even particle that exists in the closest and most distant space. That is, there is mutual dependence between all the bodies or objects in the universe down to the level of the elementary particles.
    According to the convention and I assume you also by the nature of things, everything that is around us within us and in the whole of space appeared in the distant past as a result of an event in which material appeared out of nowhere (from a singular point) when the source according to our understanding was or were homogeneous elementary particles whatever they are, etc., etc. which as a result of environmental conditions of this and that disintegrated and connected to the products that over time crystallized into what we know, see or think they are today.
    From the above I learned that any force or probably "the hand of God" intervened at the initial point of time (from the moment it began) and caused elementary particles (the most fundamental) to change their size, structure and properties so that from one single thing two or more were created. I can accept that.
    If we return to the macro, and suppose that one person can be duplicated and get two completely identical (in the full sense of the word) the very fact of their invention at a given moment in different places
    And in different environmental conditions, the situation prevents them from receiving the same stimuli with their five senses at the same time. Since for existence two objects are identical and which are supposed to remain so for a long time and at the same time need completely identical environmental conditions which in practice are not so, hence there is no room for existence for one of them. That is, they have to be found at the same time in exactly the same place and this is not possible. The theory of quats does allow such a situation at a given moment, however it refers to an elementary particle only. By the way, in my opinion, any mass that has a volume of 0 is infinite (something to think about).
    Regarding theories that you mentioned and stated that were proven XNUMX percent. Again, it's hard for me to be a contractor as a chronic skeptic.
    Every measurement tool that exists in the Authority of Science today, whatever it may be, is fundamentally built on judicial and mathematical tools. Mathematics defined as an exact science, we know that this is not the case. After all, the basis of the science of numbers is indeed an important tool, but it was invented and developed by man according to his needs and with such and such compensations. For example, it is not possible to calculate to get calculation results with absolute accuracy
    Like the diameter of a circle, for example, where the pi is an actual irrational size. That is, for our practical day-to-day needs, it is enough for us and our well-being to realize results obtained up to x places after the point. Really imprecise mathematics in the micro-macro concepts. By the way, due to the inability to use or reach science like mathematics, but completely accurate, for example, we will never be able to formulate a formula that will allow us, for example, to find a certain number within the long "series" of that pie, because if there was such a one, the pie would also be different.
    be heard in the meantime

  24. lion:
    See: there is, on the one hand, a theory that passed all the rigorous tests, as they say with flying colors and gives incredibly accurate predictions, which says that it is possible to produce identity between particles and also demonstrates this with every level of precision we are capable of in measurements.
    On the other hand, there is your claim that it did not pass any test and that does not allow us to predict anything except what it itself says and that is that there are no particles that are in the same state. This theory fails to prove its claim at any level of accuracy of the tests so far.

    Who do you want us to believe?

  25. Michael
    The point I assumed is that there is not and cannot be found even particles from the level of the atom through an electron to elementary particles that are absolutely identical to each other (for example their weight or even physical properties). Even if two particles behave identically under equal conditions, it is only apparent and we do not actually have the "perfect tools and conditions" to be able to obtain perfect measurement results (up to 18 or more after the point for example) and thus establish a perfect identity between 2 particles or even more. Assumptions And the results of observations and experiments that indicate their apparent truth, do not necessarily have to determine the absolute truth.
    Because I am surfing the field of philosophy and in this field "the sky is the limit"
    It is better to stop by the hour, and on another day we can exchange opinions.

  26. .

    I inquired with a source close to the publishing house "Kinneret", I was told that the publishing house bought the rights to translate the book, but due to the size of the book and the need for scientific editing, we can expect to see it translated into Hebrew on the bookshelves only in a year - a year and a half at a cautious estimate.


  27. lion:
    Your claim is not completely defined.
    What defines the identity between the bodies?
    If it involves location then you are probably right because of Pauli's exclusion principle.
    If it does not include location then there are many identical particles.

    I don't know what you mean when you talk about quantum theory not being empirically proven.
    Although there are parts of it that are still speculative (like, for example, the Higgs particle) but in general it is a theory that has been verified by thousands of attempts and it gives incredibly accurate predictions.
    The subject of particle casting was also tested and verified experimentally.
    The truth is that they even managed to do it without destroying the original:

  28. Michael
    The teleportation you mention does rely on quantum theory. However, my intention and I emphasized this implicitly is that I do not necessarily accept this Torah for its complexities and consequences as indisputable scientific facts, but as I mentioned, it is based, among other things, on theories and mathematical models, some of which have not yet been proven empirically or in any acceptable scientific way. The distinction between a submolecular element and a supramolecular element is made by illuminating facts that are probably known or that we agree with today and the submicron world down to the levels of elementary particles where our knowledge is rather vague and we cannot always point to and declare proven scientific facts. Seeing a situation where we are in this world, we can ever, if at all, bring any element to a state where it is at 0 time and for any length of time.
    In a general heading, my intention in my first response was to state a personal opinion that refers to the fact that in my humble opinion (and again in my humble opinion) there is no possibility in our world of the invention of two physical bodies or even elementary particles that can be completely identical at the same time.
    I would love to receive a response from you

  29. lion:
    Teleportation based on quantum theory actually speaks of zero time.
    I am surprised by the distinction you make between a molecule and below and "above" a molecule. What is this diagnosis based on?
    I have no idea if teleportation is possible but it's pretty clear to me that I won't agree to use such a teleportation mechanism that destroys me and creates a (even completely identical) copy of me, somewhere else.

  30. Creating an exact copy of the original at a different point in space while destroying the original is not possible, for the simple reason that in order to succeed in implementing such an operation (note the word action) the time factor must be taken into account. In other words, collecting, transmitting and assembling all the data to create something similar to the original requires time. That is, in 0 time the original must disappear on the one hand and the new one must be alive on the other hand. And this is not possible at all.
    From the above it can be understood that there is not and cannot be a situation in which two bodies with a composition of matter above a particle (a molecule) can exist at the same time at points in different space (even in close proximity) to each other. Moreover, in my humble opinion, there is no body of any kind, even at the level of elementary bodies, that has One or more "doubles" that are completely identical in their composition and properties, and hence every body or unit of any size that exists are monogenic units and have one self-identity. Without introducing into philosophy what we know or read today, the reference to them is only theories and mathematical models!! Concepts which have not been proven and it is doubtful that they will ever be proven.
    Let someone stand up and deny or prove that I am not right.

  31. Thank you very much for the answers 🙂
    I think I will also call "Kinneret" to speed them up a bit 😉

  32. For the attention of readers who have access to publishing houses,

    Please translate 🙂

  33. Yogev, I don't think the book has been translated into Hebrew yet, in the meantime I intend to order it from Amazon, a good opportunity to improve my English a little, but.... It's better to call Kinneret book publishing, they translated his previous book "The Age of Computing Machines", so you should ask them if they have already started translating the new book (as long as you don't scold them and tell them that everyone is waiting for them so they should start hurrying there :-))

    good evening.

  34. Thanks for the response Roy,
    And this book has already been translated? (if you happen to know)

  35. Intelligence is not mechanical, mechanical AI is an illusion.
    Bartolo, there are also women exactly the same. They are not repressed and they make mistakes like any man.

    He is crazy in the most positive sense, some are crazy and some are dangerous..

  36. To Bartolo - because it saves visits to the dentist 🙂

    To Ofer Levinger - there is no reason why we won't be able to produce a computer with intelligence and desires, once we understand the way our brain is built and the way it works, it is likely that we will be able to imitate these processes on powerful silicon-based computers, our brain is also total "material" " So the excuse that matter is "unable to think" is stupid and hollow.

    As we have expanded our physical power through levers and hydraulic machines, so we will also expand our mental power.

    PS - It's nice that you corrected the title.

  37. A computer with artificial intelligence without desires will not do anything,
    He can cause his own self-improvement, but if he doesn't have a reason, he won't do it, and he won't have one if he isn't programmed as such,
    But it's enough for one robot to be instilled with a survival instinct and culture so that it itself programs all its "friends" to have a survival instinct, and then we die.

  38. Mr. Commenter number 11.

    Basically you are right. But only in principle. Women are pushed out in science and the reasons for this are many and well known, and in my opinion even justified.

    What you should know is that a response to the above article does not imply even a little curiosity or intelligence. This Kurzweil is crazy, and the ideas presented here are so poor and childish - that you have to be a serious connoisseur to imagine that 1% of them will be realized in the next hundred years.

    Such benefactors are mostly men, sir.

    Nanometer-sized robots?!
    Dressing nano-robots on our nervous system?!
    Creating any material from these nanorobots?!
    Another 12 years!??!?!!?

    Today's state of the art technology allows the construction of a poor transistor whose channel is 65 nm long (itself, much larger). It is well known in the industry that we will not be able to minimize the transistors much more. There are more glitches than permutations.

    "artificial intelligence"! Just a popular concept that has nothing behind it except chess algorithms working on trial and error, after thousands of human years have been invested in them. The algorithms are not really smart, they are just a collection of parameters for analyzing the state of the software. Neither intelligence nor shoes.

    Quit Kurzweil and hear me out: it doesn't satisfy all hanji's fantasies, but you won't have true AI until 2100 minimum (if ever.).

  39. Why write such a misleading and incorrect title? The name of the book (and also the article on Amnon Carmel's blog) is "The Singularity is Close"!! No one claimed she was already here!!

    Is it possible to fix this wrong title that just misleads the readers?


  40. Girlfriend, don't get excited (unless you're under 18). The real job of futurists is to make other people dream (because usually their predictions are unfounded) and once you've made others dream the sky is the limit.
    Regardless of the correctness of the prediction, achieving artificial intelligence (in all its aspects) is one of the most important intellectual tasks for the human race. And therefore the book should be blessed.

  41. Yogev,

    His previous book 'The Age of Thinking Machines' was indeed published in Hebrew. It can probably be found in the various university libraries.


  42. First, Ami Bachar, I am responding even though I did not plan to, according to my watch it is five to two.
    I think the guy will be fooled. Kurzweil will die thin and depressed.
    More than 30 years ago people fantasized about flying cars, a much older dream than artificial intelligence, the only thing that floats outside my windows is the clouds of pollution from the Haifa factories, so I'm pretty sure that the singularity that Kurzwal will meet will be of the more basic kind - death. (With all due respect to Kurzwal , throughout history we gave, and he will not be the one to stop the sequence).

    And despite the pessimistic tone, I'm sure that the moment Kurzweil is talking about will also come, in larger time intervals, and not before we begin to address critical existential problems relevant to the present - arms race, epidemics, warming, etc. (in no particular order)

  43. Sorry to disappoint Kurzweil, but he won't last until his predictions come true. His schedule should at least be doubled.

  44. Kurzweil is very focused within himself and within the world he knows.
    For that world that Kurzweil imagines, drastic changes in the weather, global warming, are expected, which will forever change the culture as we know it today.
    Wars, hunger, and terrorism in futuristic technology, seem to me to be a future option
    No less applicable.

  45. Mr. Response 11, and it was said: May you rest. Homo sapiens with a chromosomal load come in and call, but don't immediately want to tell the guys

  46. For those who are interested, in a futuristic novel called accelerando there is a beautiful description of the appearance of human society at the time of the formation of the singularity. Pay attention, this is not an easy read because on each page several ideas are presented that will change your perception - but very interesting.

    For an opponent: read Neil Asher's books. In his world the computers do take over humanity, but humanity does not resist because, in fact, they can govern better than any human. Whereas the computers are not moving towards the singularity simply because they don't feel like it. No one wants to become something other than themselves, not even intelligent computers. And the singularity in its definition does not allow us to know what is on the other side.

  47. Ami,

    I'm the closest, I have a name that is also common among girls...
    It's indeed a shame that girls don't respond and maybe enter science websites less.
    The last one I remember commenting on was in a debate on the subject of the giants as far as I can remember...and she sided with their existence.

  48. I am amazed by a slightly less sexy fact, in relation to the futuristic and advanced speech of the article and the talkbackists: I am comment number 11. There is not even one girl who has responded to this article. It's amazing and shocking at the same time. Why are women pushed out of the race for scientific advancement?

  49. So that we remember that there are peoples and religions that cause the future to be delayed, investing money and human lives that could have been diverted to progress. From this comes the need for a common global regime that will save the expenses of conflicts between the countries between the religions and establish uniform standards of law. This too will come and it cannot be avoided, the sooner the better.

  50. Shaul - will be taken care of, thanks for the referral.

    As for Kurzweil, I have the feeling that he almost completely ignores the large gap between individual successful experiments in laboratories and the transfer of technology to public use.

    Either way, a fascinating article and thanks to Amnon Carmel.


  51. Father, why are there articles that cannot be said about? For example, in the article "NASA: There is ice on Mars, it evaporated when the Phoenix shovel removed it" there is no comment option at the bottom, why?

    NASA scientists behave a bit like amateurs, from the pictures in which you see the so-called "disappearances" of the white lumps, it seems that these are more games of light and shadow (pictures taken at different times of the day) and not a real disappearance of the material. Also, why don't they take scientists instead of all these guesses NASA will take another sample and put it in the oven for serious testing? They act like amateurs.

  52. It is possible - that at a certain point those computers that will really be very intelligent will understand the dangers of continuing this development, and will decide based on this understanding to stop and not to continue developing smarter and more intelligent computers than them, so that the singularity will not be realized in the end.

  53. His predictions are indeed fantastic, and he is undoubtedly a fascinating man. I'm not sure about the timetable he outlines, but it is clear that this is a collection of revolutions that will take place in the next fifty years and will change our lives and the lives of our descendants.
    Are his optimistic predictions predicted by his obsession with immortality or something close to it, he is talking about a period of time that is only about 30 years away from us when he himself will reach an age that, at least at the moment, is the average life expectancy in the Western world? Doesn't he accelerate the prediction so that the same technologies can also work on him, similar to the beliefs of a patient with an incurable disease who clings to every glimmer of hope, research and publicity about a possible cure?
    These revolutions contain enormous challenges for the human race and it is worth remembering that all those revolutions have enormous social consequences. Our species will have to give its opinion on the meaning of the developments in biology, brain research, genetics, computers, nanotechnology and all the interfaces between them.
    This reminds me of a story I read in Richard Feynman's book about an encounter he had in a Buddhist temple where the monk told him: "Everyone receives the key to the gate of heaven, the same key also opens the gates of hell", Feynman found the analogy true for science and technology as well .

  54. I've always had a problem with the singularity argument -
    Kurzweil assumes that once an artificial intelligence is created it will be able to design a more sophisticated artificial intelligence which in turn will design the next generation and so on. This argument in itself is reasonable, but in order to reach the singularity, you have to make a claim like "a monotonically increasing series is a diverging series (going to infinity)".
    Every first year science major knows this is a false claim. It may be that the rate of improvement will decrease rather than increase.
    After all, human intelligence finds it very difficult to design an intelligence equivalent to it - why should artificial intelligence have an easier life?

  55. It should really be a beautiful book, although I would postpone everything by a few years,
    Not many years but several decades.

    I have a few problems with the whole thing but the most prominent is:
    "Although we had to find solutions to destroy the "source" after the transfer..."

    The copy will never be exactly like the original.

    I also think that the same advanced intelligence will not be fully artificial because if it is based on computing and also on humans who will be much more connected than today, the grouping of minds that will be (today it is called the Internet in a small way) is the one that will constitute the awareness, still the computer is only material.

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