The CBS forecast for 2035 Israel's population will number 11.4 million, but it will age and the rate of natural reproduction will slow down

The aging of the population will continue and even intensify. The 65 and over population is expected to grow more than any other age group. At the end of 2035, this population will number about 1.7 million people 

Central Bureau of Statistics regularly publishes forecasts of Israel's population for a period of 25 years. These forecasts are updated every five years taking into account changes in demographic trends. The updated forecast for the population of Israel for the period 2035-2010 replaces the previous forecast for the period 2030-2005.

The forecasts present estimates regarding the size of the population and the expected age composition of the population of Israel as a whole and according to detailed population groups and religions: Jews and others, Arabs, Jews, Muslims, Arab Christians and Druze. The population forecasts assume a continuation of demographic trends from the past and do not pretend to predict unusual developments or unexpected changes in demographic developments and changes in economic, social and health policies. However, the forecast results are presented in three different alternatives: high, medium and low. The alternatives differ from each other in the assumptions for the future regarding the various components of population growth (fertility, mortality and migration).

The population estimates in the base year, the end of 2010, do not include the population of foreign workers with work visas. This population was estimated at about 217,000 people at the end of 2010 and some of them had been in Israel for more than a year. In addition, the population estimate does not include people who entered Israel without a residence visa and not through recognized border crossings.

According to the medium alternative:

• At the end of 2035, the population of Israel is expected to number 11.4 million. However, the growth rate is expected to decrease. The average annual growth rate in the period 2035-2011 will be 1.4%. For comparison, in the period preceding the base year of the forecast, in the years 2010-2006, the average growth rate was 1.9%.
• The population of Jews and others will number 8.8 million people at the end of 2035 (77% of the total population), compared to 6.1 million people (79.5%) at the end of 2010. In this population, an annual growth rate of 1.4% is expected (compared to 1.7% in 2010-2006).
• The Jewish population, which constitutes today and will also constitute 2035% of the Jewish and other population in 95, will number 8.3 million people at the end of the forecast (73% of the total population). At the end of 2010, the Jewish population numbered 5.8 million people (75%). The Jewish population is expected to grow during the forecast at the same rate as the Jews and the others - 1.4% annual average, compared to 1.8% in 2010-2006.
• The Arab population is expected to number 2.6 million people at the end of the forecast (23% of the total population). At the end of 2010, this population numbered about 1.6 million people (20.5%). During the forecast period, the population will increase by an average of 1.8% annually, compared to 2.7% in 2010-2006.
• The religions that make up the Arab population will each grow at a different rate. The Muslim population is expected to grow by 1.9% on average per year (will number 2.3 million people at the end of 2035). The Druze population will grow at an average rate of 1.3% (185 thousand in 2035), while the Arab Christian population will grow by an average of 0.6% per year - the lowest growth rate compared to the other religions (will number 152 thousand at the end of 2035). For comparison, in the years 2010-2006 the growth rate of the Muslim population was 3.0%, of the Druze population 2.1% and of the Arab Christian population 0.7%. The Muslim population will make up 20% of the total population (17% in 2010), the Druze 1.6% (1.7% in 2010) and the Arab Christians 1.3% (1.6% in 2010).
• 94% of the expected increase in Israel's population will be the result of natural increase and 6% of the total increase in the forecast period is the result of the balance of international migration. In the period 2010-2006, 89% of the national increase was from natural reproduction and 11% from the balance of international migration. The expected increase in the weight of the natural increase in the total increase, derives on the one hand from assumptions of high birth rates and an increase in the number of women of reproductive age (49-15) which causes an increase in the number of births in the forecast. On the other hand, the immigration assumptions predict a reduction in the volume of immigration to Israel.
• The forecast assumes that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Israeli women will gradually decrease but will remain at a high level both compared to the Western world and compared to neighboring countries. In the years 2010-2006, the total fertility rate of women in Israel was 2.95 births per woman on average. In the first period of the forecast in 2015-2011, 2.94 births per woman are assumed and in the last period of the forecast in 2035-2031, 2.75 births per woman. According to UN forecasts, the total fertility rate in the developed countries is expected to be 1.82 births per woman in the period 2035-2030. In the countries bordering Israel, the total fertility rate is expected to be - Jordan 2.41 births per woman, Egypt 2.27, Syria 2.23 and Lebanon 1.53.
• According to an assumption, at the beginning of the forecast, the highest fertility is among Muslim women (3.37 births), but it is expected to drop to 2.70 by the year 2035. On the other hand, among Jewish women, a slight increase in the fertility rate is expected from 2.99 at the beginning of the forecast to 3.04 at the end - which is stable them at the highest level compared to the other religions. The lowest fertility is expected in the Arab Christian population - 2.1 births per woman at the beginning and end of the forecast.
• The forecast assumes a continued increase in life expectancy for both women and men. Among Jewish and other men, life expectancy will increase from 79.7 years in 2006-2010 to 84.8 years in 2031-2035, among women an increase is expected from 83.3 years to 89.5 years during these periods. The life expectancy of Arab men will increase from 75.9 to 81.6 years and among Arab women from 79.7 to 86.3 years.
• The forecast assumes a significant reduction in the balance of international migration from 76 thousand in the 2010-2006 period to 58 thousand in the first period of the forecast and to 33 thousand in the last period of the forecast.
• According to the assumptions of the forecast, during the next 25 years about 4.7 million babies are expected to be born (188 thousand births on average per year during the forecast, compared to 166 thousand births in 2010), about 400 thousand immigrants are expected to rise (16 thousand immigrants per year on average, compared to 23 thousand in 2010) and another 100 thousand immigrants to Israel as part of family reunification (4 thousand per year on average, similar to 2010). On the negative side of the increase, 1.2 million deaths are expected (48 thousand deaths per year on average, compared to about 40 thousand in 2010) and about 290 thousand immigrants from Israel (about 12 thousand per year, compared to 9 thousand in 2010).
• The aging of the population will continue and even intensify. The 65 and over population is expected to grow more than any other age group. At the end of 2035, this population will number about 1.7 million people - an increase of 117% compared to 763 thousand people at the end of 2010. Their relative share in the population will increase from 10% to 14.6% respectively, however it will be much lower than the developed countries (about 24%) .
• Among the group aged 65 and over, the most significant increase will be registered among the oldest, aged 90 and over, an increase of 220%. Their number will increase to 106 people at the end of 2035 (compared to 33 at the end of 2010) and they will make up one percent of the entire population of Israel (at the end of 2010 they made up 0.6%). A large part of the expected aging in Israel is due to the transition of a large cohort born after World War II (the Baby Boomers) to older age groups.
• The number of children aged 0-14 will increase from approximately 2.2 million to 2.9 million, but their relative share in the population will decrease from 28% to 26%.
• The dependency ratio will increase significantly from 550 dependents per 1,000 dependents in 2010 to approximately 900 dependents at the end of 2035.
• The median age of the entire Israeli population will increase in almost two years: among men from 28.3 years at the end of 2010 to 30.1 at the end of 2035 and among women from 30.5 years to 32.4 years.