Where did 3 billion people go?

30 years ago it was estimated that in 2050 the earth would be inhabited by 12 billion people, but now they are talking about only 9 billion. This is how the threat forecast for a population explosion was falsified

Remember the "population bomb"? The birth rates that say they are going to consume the food in the world and pollute the air and water on earth? Well, the threat is still here, but it's not as bad. In the last three decades, its danger has decreased, and with it the threatening predictions of Thomas Malthus, the 19th century prophet of demographic rage.

The birth rate in developed countries, from Italy to Korea, has dropped in recent years below the level needed to keep the population from shrinking, the age of marriage and pregnancy is rising, and the use of contraceptives has increased greatly, much to the heart of the Vatican. The threat now is more regional and less global, and only explodes in places like India and Pakistan.

In 1968, the United Nations Population Division predicted that the world's population (6.3 billion people today) would increase to more than 12 billion by 2050. Since then, the agency has repeatedly revised its estimates, and now it predicts that the world's population in 2050 will number only about 9 billion humans.
The move from villages to cities reduces the need for a fourth child
Where did the extra billions go? Millions of babies died, some from AIDS, but many more from malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia and even measles. Millions of fetuses have been aborted, either to avoid birth or to avoid the birth of a daughter, as is the case in China and India.

But AIDS and the increase in the number of abortions are only a drop in the ocean. The missing billions are actually the babies who simply did not flock, either because their brothers and sisters survived, or because of the constant improvement in mothers' lives. In the wealthy West, the mother went to college, and decided that financing academic studies for three children was something she could not afford. In the poor areas in the east and south of the planet, the mother got a job (in an exploitative factory, usually), and did not need a fourth or fifth child to chop wood.

"On the farm, the children help with the pigs and chickens," explains Joseph Shami, director of the UN Population Division. Almost half of the world's population now lives in cities, he said, "and when you have to move to the city, the kids can't help as much."

In addition, simple actions such as building dams to maintain clean water, giving vitamins to pregnant women, hand washing among midwives, vaccinations for children, and antibiotics for everyone, helped to double life expectancy in the world in the 20th century, from 30 years to 60.

As more children survive, the incentive to give birth often decreases. In 1970 the median fertility rate in the world was 5.4 births per woman; In 2000 it dropped to 2.9. To keep the population size stable, the birth rate needs to be at least 2.1 children per woman. This, without taking into account events such as wars, famine, epidemics or disasters.
The decline in the birth rate is worldwide
Italy's population is expected to decrease by 20% by 2050 (Photos: Reuters

Even in Albania, the poorest country in Europe, the average number of births per woman dropped significantly

The fertility rate in China is lower than that of France. Italy is the best known example of the decline in the birth rate. Italian women used to be a symbol of fertility, both due to rural tradition and the Catholic religion, which firmly rejects birth control. In 2000, the fertility rate in Italy was the lowest in Western Europe, with 1.2 births per woman. The country's population is expected to decrease by 20% by 2050.

In liberal and Protestant Denmark, the birth rate in 1970 dropped to 2.0 births per woman, and by 2001 the average number of births dropped to 1.7. In Albania, the poorest country in Europe, characterized by a large rural population, the birth rate dropped from 5.1 births per woman in 1970 to 2.1 births in 1999.

Even in North Africa, which deviated from the general trend of population decline, a certain decrease in the birth rate was recorded. In Egypt, for example, there was a decrease from 5.4 births per woman in 1970 to 3.6 births in 1999. Shami believes that the data refutes what he calls the "Muslim fertility myth", an unfair characterization according to him, which will disappear with the improvement in the lives of Muslim women. Shami said that in Jordan the birth rate in the 60s was eight children per woman. Today the birth rate there has dropped to only 3.5. In Israel, the birth rate dropped from 4 children per woman in the 50s, to 2.9 in the last decade. According to Shami, the birth rate in Tunisia and Iran is about 2 children per woman.

Old perceptions about the fertility rate in Asia are also incorrect. China's fertility rate has fallen below that of France, Japan's population is aging, and in South Korea, after five decades of industrialization, the birth rate has dropped from 6 births per woman in the 50s to only 1.17 births.
Therefore, many countries have started paying women to get pregnant. In Estonia, the state funds an entire year of maternity leave, in Australia, the Minister of Finance, Peter Costello, included a grant of $2,000 per newborn in the state budget for 2004, and called on the country's citizens to "go home and do your patriotic duty tonight." In Japan, prefectural governors organize pleasure cruises for bachelors. The USA does not need to finance such activities, because its birth rate is stable - 2.13 births per woman. The increase in the country's population by about 3 million people a year is mainly due to immigration, as it has been since the first immigrants arrived in the USA aboard the "Mayflower".
The optimal situation - 2 billion people in the world

Will it be like this in the end? (Photo: artoday) Half of the increase in the world's population is now occurring in six countries: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh and China (despite the decline in the country's birth rate). Because of this, it is more difficult today to make prophecies of destruction, as Paul Ehrlich did in 1968 in his book "The Population Bomb", which caused great panic in the world.

Dr. Ehrlich, a lecturer in population studies and biology at Stanford University, said he was "pleasantly surprised" by the global changes that challenged the most threatening assertions in his book. These changes include the one child policy in China, and the use of better seeds and fertilizers in third world countries. These have led to the fact that today it is possible to feed more people, even if only with corn porridge and rice (Ehrlich points out, however, that about 600 million people go to bed every night hungry).

However, Ehrlich maintains that the "optimal population size" on Earth is 2 billion people. "I'm afraid we won't be able to support even two billion people, if they all live like US citizens," he said. "The world can support many more vegetarian saints than idiots who drive jeeps."
 

By: Donald McNeil New York Times, Haaretz, Walla News