Sela spoke at the Chiportal chip club conference: The world's population has increased 3 times in the last 50 years, but energy consumption has increased 20 times
The main professional guest at the sixth meeting of the Israeli chip club that took place this week (December 19) in Tel Aviv was Guy Sela, CEO of Solaredge.
Sela was a fighter and team commander in the Matkal patrol. You spent several years abroad and then you studied at the Technion in three faculties. After that he returned to the command of a technological unit for about ten years. At the beginning of his lecture, he tells how he got into the solar field: "Four people and I founded Solaragadge at the end of 2006. We focused on the field of photovoltaic energy. The tides led me that when I left the army I joined Star Ventures and in 2005 I did due diligence on interesting companies in Silicon Valley. I had an idea to switch from analog power to digital power. I was looking for an application - how to optimize the production capacity and that's how I came to the field of converters from solar energy to electricity, for photovoltaic cells. It's a system that is able to convert energy at the panel level and manage the amount of current coming out of the panel."
"The company raised capital from venture capital funds in the West Coast and Israel as well as from General Electric. The company has over 65 patents in various stages of registration and 4 that have already been approved. The company employs 170 people and has offices in Germany, California, Japan and Italy. The company also sells through integrators and distributors in 28 other countries, and it holds 70% of the market share in the field of optimization systems. So far, thousands of systems have been installed worldwide, and in 2011, systems supplying 180 megawatts of electricity were installed. We started selling at the beginning of 2010 and today we are at a sales rate of 100 million dollars."
The world's population is growing at an enormous rate - in 1950 there were 3 billion inhabitants and in 2011 there were already 8 billion. But energy consumption per capita increased at a rate eight times higher. In fact today we consume 20 times more energy than 50 years ago. The reason for this is the increase in the standard of living. In countries like India, 11 million people are added to the middle class every year and this increases global energy consumption.
The result: the depletion of energy sources and depletion of reserves, which led to a jump in fuel prices. The strongest growth is expected in non-OECD countries.
In the global energy mix, oil, gas and coal - the fossil fuels - have an absolute majority, but they are on the verge of ending. Oil is in the ground for 45 years, gas for 63 and coal for 120 years. To meet the growing need for energy there is no escape but to use alternative energy sources. Another problem with oil, mainly, is that 70% of the reserves are in Muslim countries in the Middle East, and also among the other sources, only Canada is a country that can be trusted, thanks to the oil shale, which at today's prices and the new technologies is worth mining (Sela does not take into account the environmental damage of exploiting shale the oil). Apart from Russia, Venezuela and partially Nigeria, the rest of the oil producing countries are Muslim. This is a reason why Israel must switch to alternative energy.
But don't be tempted to think that producing alternative energy is a new matter. In the world, quite a bit of hydroelectric energy is used, waterfalls where the water drives turbines as they fall, and of course nuclear energy is also used quite a bit, although no new reactors have been built in 20 years.
The most efficient energy was the hydroelectric energy in which 90% of the potential energy of the water is converted into electricity, in oil it is already about 45% and in today's voltaic cells the utilization is 15% but unlike oil, the sun is an inexhaustible source. It was Edison who said that we are like ranchers heating the house at the expense of cutting the fence while we have an inexhaustible source - solar, wind and tidal energy and he hopes we will switch to them before the oil runs out.
Solar energy is divided into 2 subfields: solar thermal energy heats oil that boils water that turns into steam that turns a power plant. There is another option to direct many mirrors to a central point where the turbine is located and thus make better use of the sunlight. The field we are dealing with is the field of photovoltaic energy in which direct conversion of photons into electrons takes place.
In 1839 a Frenchman named Edmond Becquerel discovers the effect but does not understand what it is. In 1905, within the framework of the miraculous year, Albert Einstein formulates the photoelectric effect and in 1921 he receives the Nobel Prize in Physics for it and not for the theory of relativity. In 1954 the first photovoltaic cell was developed at Bell Laboratories, and in 1958 it was already used on the Vanguard 1 satellite. A modern market has begun to use such cells to generate electricity from the sun on roofs.
Sela refutes a claim heard among the opponents of clean energy that the carbon emission involved in the production of the panel is at most the same as the amount it saves when producing electricity using it. "A solar panel in a sunny climate can save during its lifetime up to 20 times more than the energy used to produce it and it returns this energy in less than two years. Two thirds of the cost is transportation and if we build a home system that will provide us with electricity we will lose much less on the way.
Last year there were 18 gigawatts installed and this year 24 gigawatts. The market will stabilize at 30-40 billion dollars in the coming years.
The technology, the market regulation, and the cost of energy lead us towards a balance between the price of electricity production with solar energy and the price of electricity production with conventional energies. The magic number is $2.5 per installed vat.
This balance is called GRID PARITY or in Hebrew network balance. The intention is that we can produce photovoltaic energy at a price equivalent to fossil energy. The calculations do not take into account the advantage of saving on transportation when houses will have zero energy. Between 2013 and 2016 we will reach parity. In fact, there are places where it is already possible to reach equality today. In England, for example, there are about 900 hours of sunshine a year, on the coastal plain in Israel 1600-1650 hours of sunshine a year, in Mitzpe Ramon it reaches 2300. In places like Mitzpe Ramon it is already possible to reach a grid balance. In London it will still take time. By the way, islands in Greece or Hawaii, where the price of oil is expensive because of its transportation, are already reaching a balance today.
Ever since the invention of the steam engine by James Watt, Anto has been in a race to improve operations. The field of photovoltaic cells is also constantly being upgraded. In my opinion, within a few decades we will reach the same efficiency as burning oil, but since this is energy from a much cheaper source, a balance can be reached even with today's relatively low efficiency.
Another issue that should be considered is GRID BALANCING. One of the problems with solar energy is that it is only available during the day. That's why electricity grid operators need to know when to shut down certain production sources so that there aren't too many options when you don't need them and a lack of electricity when you need it. For this, it is necessary to develop storage capacities for electricity. One way to store the electricity is pumped storage, using the unnecessary electricity generated during the day to raise water to a high pond and use the hydroelectric energy at night. Another way that is being developed today is charging electric vehicles during the day and using the electricity generated at night, so that they do not have to build fossil fuel power stations to charge the electric vehicles.
The various technologies that are currently being developed, including Silicon Carbide transistors, GaN for power generation applications, and new materials for the production of ferrite cores will bring the costs to $2.5 per installed watt as mentioned between 2013 and 2016.
Unlike the cells themselves, as far as conversion systems are concerned, there is no competition from manufacturers in China (in the field of cells, the subsidies given by the Chinese government to local manufacturers and the failure to protect local produce in Europe and the US caused a collapse of production in Europe and the US, especially Celinedra, which the Fox network likes to brandish in front of Obama). Sela hopes that by the time this competition arrives, all production at Solaredge will be robotic.
In response to Chiportal's question about the opposition funded by oil companies in the US to anything that smells of green energy: "I am optimistic that it is very difficult to slow down the pace, despite the dependence of the US on the oil industry."
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Yael:
You asked a question that the work in the production or installation of PV panels does not contribute to the ability to answer it, so I allow myself to address it even though it was addressed to Michael Lichterman.
Connecting networks globally is a problematic thing from several points of view, not the least of which is the political point of view. It does not seem to me that in the current state of affairs Israel has no one to associate with.
Another problem is that transporting electricity over large distances involves significant energy losses and the kind of backup you are talking about requires the transfer of energy to distances exceeding ten thousand km (a quarter of the circumference of the earth) in order to transport energy from lighted areas to the darkest areas.
Energy storage therefore seems to me to be a more applicable solution and I have already pointed to a way that I think has a chance of being able to operate at the state level because it is already being used today to balance the output of the power plants:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped_storage
Besides, it must be remembered that a large part of the sun's energy is "accumulated" by itself and is reflected in the winds and waves that exist even at night.
Mr. Michael Lichterman,
Since you work in the field, I have a question for you: many times when people talk about renewable energies, they disclaim the reliability of their supply. For example, solar energy has a problem at night and on cloudy days. Is it possible to connect electricity grids in a global (worldwide) manner with the assumption that compared to a place where there is night then there will always be another country that comes day? In terms of the network's resistance, is this worthwhile energetically?
Otherwise, the question of "hoarding" always comes up, which complicates the whole thing.
Thanks.
To Yael and Avi, and to the other commenters who argue about the efficiency of PV energy and the future of the industry. Two years ago a watt-panel went up over $2, today it is already possible to obtain for $1.1 a lot panels with a much higher efficiency relative to the area of the panel and with lower annual energy losses that reach only half a percent per year (and there are rumors that in some countries you can even get them for less than a dollar one per watt!).
If two years ago a 50KW system would have cost about a million shekels, today one can be set up for half a million.
Of course, the profit margin remains more or less the same because the electricity purchase rates decrease if each new cap is opened.
Already today there are entrepreneurs in the industry who plan to build systems of megawatts at a profit of less than 2 times the price of selling electricity to consumers by HAI.
And in any case, as a person who is and works in the industry, I can tell you with certainty that the future of the global energy market will undoubtedly include the solar field in the future on a much wider scale than today and will provide a major part of the electricity in the countries suitable for it.
You don't need a cable, you can transmit the microwave energy to the earth. working on it. They are also working on colors that will turn any surface - for example the roof or walls of buildings into solar collectors. There are simply people who are not ready to accept any less than perfect solution, even though their alternative - the continued use of fossil fuels is the least perfect.
Hey,
After a fairly comprehensive study of the alternatives to hydrocarbon fuel, especially a study of the state of development of generating electricity from fusion, it seems that the situation is not encouraging - every alternative has its drawbacks. Even a Nobel Prize winning physicist (Pierre-Gilles de Gennes) came out with significant arguments against the likelihood of fusion reactors.
Therefore, it is possible that the solution will be a combined solution of all the known techniques, including PV. I even thought about a PV station in space that the power transmission cable would serve as a 'space elevator'. Maybe it's just science fiction...
Yes, I agree with Oren's points. But it's hard to say what the limit is for using solar energy in a sunny area like ours. The development of efficient/thin panels is slow but it is still progressing year by year.
If efficient methods and infrastructure are developed for conversion so that enough can be stored from day to night and from summer to winter, then I think it is possible to set a vision of 80% of the total electricity in the country being solar.
And the greatest hope in my eyes is regional cooperation with Egypt and Jordan, which have a lot of free desert space for this matter. (But I don't expect it in the next 30 years).
Personally, I also follow developments in the more esoteric field of LENR (what used to be called "cold fusion")
Maybe salvation will grow from there.
Some notes:
1. Producing energy from photovoltaic cells is a genius idea and it's a shame it isn't used more widely, especially in a sunny country like ours.
2. In my opinion, the discussion about the cost today is not so essential because the cost of generating electricity with the help of solar cells is constantly decreasing (mainly the price of the panels, and in the future developments such as concentrating radiation, etc.) and will eventually catch up with the cost of burning coal (I hope I am not lost).
3. The problem is that even if the price today were the same, solar electricity cannot replace all energy consumption due to storage problems (winter, night). The issue has been briefly mentioned here but in fact, as far as I know, is a very fundamental problem. We are working on it in full swing, but technologically, unfortunately, we are not there yet.
4. The wisdom will be in the correct combination of the different methods for producing electricity. None of them is a single solution. Solar electricity is not coming to replace all of humanity's electricity consumption. The realistic ambition is that it will provide a certain percentage of the energy consumption. If we achieve this, we have already done a great thing.
I checked several times the feasibility of installing the panels for an industrial plant, even when they offered high amounts for each kWh (over NIS 2).
In all these cases, and with the participation of economists and jurists in the discussion, I did not find that there was a place to enter into this adventure. Profitability, if at all, was very marginal.
Issues that were not clear until the end as part of my tests were: loss of output during the years of the system's life, the chance of getting stuck in a few years with an outdated system in a rapidly changing world, and the stability of government promises,
Those millions are better invested in any other equipment that has better chances of bearing profits.
Regarding my response to this https://www.hayadan.org.il/no-avoidance-of-solar-panels-261211/#comment-320288
I checked with the company today and it turns out that the boards they are selling today are indeed imported from China
Waste of time...resources should be invested in the direction of nuclear energy. The name of the solution. And it's pretty clear to everyone
Yaron, on a scientific website it is not enough to throw such things away, you need to refer to specific studies, otherwise how does this response differ from other responses of green energy opponents?
Investigations carried out by scientific bodies show that solar energy will not be able to cover more than 20% of the growth in 20
the coming years. The only energy known to us today that can help is nuclear.
with all the risk involved.
We have to deal with some disinformation spread by people whose interest is that there will be no progress in solar panels.
As far as I know those who bring me the panels bring them from Germany (it's already too late to call and ask).
In terms of output - they promised me at the time of installation about a drop in output of about XNUMX percent per year.
It's still too early to say if they live up to it, but I guess they know that if they don't live up to their commitment, they'll have to solve the problem at their own expense (either by adding panels or by replacing them with new ones).
My father was right and so was Mr. Sela,
A friend of my father's manages projects all over the world in the field, he says that since the Chinese came in, the prices of the panels have dropped. On the other hand, he also says that until today the data show (and there is not much data...) that the efficiency of the panels drops by about 13% per year, which means that in 7-8 years they will pass.
How are you Mr. R.?
Right
That is, the figure of prices that have not been used for 13 years is inaccurate, at least from your personal experience
I didn't see graphs but I did see prices and today panels are sold much cheaper.
When I installed the system I paid NIS 80,000 for 14 panels and recently (less than a year later) they offered me to add some panels at a cost of NIS 3000 per unit, which is a little more than half the price.
The issue of storage is indeed problematic and that is why I wrote in my answer to Ori that I ignore the need for electricity supply at night.
As long as this issue is not resolved satisfactorily, additional solutions will also be needed.
There are many other solutions available.
The solution that Mansouri pointed to is one of them.
Why invest in something so ineffective when there is already technology that solves two problems in one go?
Plants to create fuel from garbage.
Both clean and cheap electricity and solving the problem of garbage piles.
One hundred tons of garbage become 45 thousand liters of diesel
at a price of 2.65 NIS for 3.78 liters (gallon)
http://pesn.com/2011/11/30/9601968_GPI_hires_hundreds_to_manufacture_200_W2E_plants_in_next_18_months/
Over time, solar technology will become cheaper and more efficient, when we reach a situation where the electric company does not have to subsidize energy producers like Mr. Rothschild, then we can say goodbye to Arab oil.
If we see progress in technology like we see in the field of computing, then in a few years no one will doubt where it would be worthwhile to invest money
Register with the same email on the gravatar website
How can I add a picture to my comments?
No problem, I'm in favor.
hi father
Regarding the 'smart grid'... this is about the way of controlling existing grids (look for SMART GRID)... regarding the efficiency potential, read a quote:
"Improved energy efficiency could cut the rapidly growing rate of energy consumption by more than half over the next 15 years, according to the McKinsey Global Institute
The source is the European Union. And he talks about the near future. But you can make a projection of the graph, according to the same data they wrote (a 12% decrease per year in the cost of the panels - contrary to what you wrote).
In addition, I attached a graph that shows this decrease, but not in terms of years, but according to the amount of megawatts installed.
Avi,
Don't get mad at me please! I'm still in the data collection phase... get mad at me when I complete it.
What is the source of this graph? How can we learn from him about 1998-2011?
And... but...
It is not certain that PV cells cannot replace the electricity grid (today) in domestic uses, let's say we put 500 square meters of panels on each housing unit. How will we store the electricity for use at night? in winter? How will the batteries of a house look for the consumption of a particularly rainy and cold week???
Read the explanation below the graph, it contradicts your argument that panel prices have not decreased for 13 years. This is certainly not true in light of the massive subsidies the Chinese government has given to local panel manufacturers that have flooded the market. By the way, I just heard about this spin for the first time.
In order to create a smart grid, you need to control the panels, and that's exactly what the Solaredge company does. However, most of its sales are outside of Israel.
Yes, the operation and maintenance costs are listed in the link I provided (in Table 1, O&M section). Indeed in PV the costs there are very low (but they are included).
As for the distance from the network, this is already true today. For small and remote loads, PV is already used today as an economic solution. It is clear that there is an energetic "cost" along the lines as well.
Does anyone know why the prices of the panels have not decreased since 1998? Is it true that they have been stuck at the same price for 13 years?
From what I read "the next big thing" is 'smart network management'. Do you do this in Israel?
Uri S:
I think you did not understand my words at all.
What I have presented is a calculation that shows that I am profiting.
It does not belong at all to the source of the amount and to the fact that it is exorbitant and subsidized.
I pay a certain amount for the photovoltaic panels and it pays off for me even if what I get for it is 2.5 times the market price of electricity.
In other words - if we ignore the problem of the need to supply electricity at night - it pays for me to generate electricity even at a cost of 2.5 times what I pay to the electricity company, therefore the claim that it costs five times more even though it pays me even when I sell it for 2.5 times is not true.
The meaning of the numbers is clear.
Companies that deal in photovoltaic electricity also make a profit.
The salaries there are no less good than those of the electric company.
I don't know if the calculation of 25 agorat per KOSH includes the salaries of the employees and how exactly these salaries are included in the 80 agorat.
One of the important cost components is the issue of electricity transmission.
When the transmission is not a long distance, a lot of money is saved - not only in infrastructure but also in electrical energy.
It is easy to understand that it is much cheaper to carry electricity from the roof to the house than to carry it tens and hundreds of kilometers.
In the end - the bottom line is the deciding factor and this is the line that is reflected in my words.
I have now uploaded a graph that explains the issue of network balance and will make it clear to all those who still claim that it is more expensive than fossil energy whose time is limited.
This is not true at all. Solar energy is a misleading term because what reaches the earth is an order of magnitude smaller than the energy of the sun.
The sun's energy originates from fusion processes, so the future lies in nuclear energy.
I think one of the problems with distributed solar power stations compared to a coal station is that a coal station provides a living for the manager, deputy manager, team leaders and hundreds of other 'junior' employees, whereas a solar station once installed requires almost no maintenance. Therefore, the workers' committee of an electricity company is not satisfied with them.
Otherwise, there is no reason not to establish them - also owned by an electricity company.
Michael Rothschild - What kind of economic calculation are you doing?
The electric company transfers to you an exorbitant and subsidized amount due to political pressures. And you claim that this is proof that the model is profitable?
The correct calculation you need to do: how much does the system cost? What is the value of your income in terms of the price of electricity as of today (which results from polluting energy) and then you will find that you really do not return your investment but lose.
What do the numbers mean?
- The cost to the electric company per kilo of electricity from gas is about 25 agorat.
- An electricity company sells electricity to private customers for about 60 agora.
- If an electricity company were to produce from PV, the cost per solar panel would be about 80 agora.
- For electricity produced by private individuals, the electric company pays 201 cents!!!
For those who did not understand:
I'm talking about how much I invest in purchasing and installing the equipment.
As you know - I don't buy it from the government but from a company that earns its bread this way.
I myself pay for it and I myself receive the profits.
And it turns out that it pays off for me (a lot!) even if they pay me 2.5 times the price charged by the electric company.
Of course, the only connection of this to the amount of production of this type in Israel is that if they had installed more - I would have paid even less and therefore I would have earned even more.
Some facts:
1. If the CEO of a company for the development and production of PV cells is not a shareholder, then who is considered a shareholder?
2. The electricity company's plan resulted from political pressure to encourage green energies, it is limited by the electricity company
for a ridiculous amount of the total.
3. Producing electricity from solar technologies is still 3-6 times more expensive than the conservative alternatives, a comparison table from the American Energy Authority is attached: if you invest today in a power plant that will start producing in 2016.
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html
My personal opinion:
1. Carbon fuels will wear out at one point or another, so it makes sense to examine/develop alternatives.
2. PV cells are manufactured using processes similar to making microchips. It is enough to see the drop in "Memory" prices to be encouraged about the drop in PV prices.
3. I wonder if they would have invested the amounts they invested in the unnecessary space station (150-300 billion dollars) in the development of fusion power plants...
Uri S:
You really are being used as a propaganda conduit for misinformation.
I speak from experience.
I was among the first in Israel to install a photovoltaic system on the roof of their house.
The system prices were much higher then than they are today.
The government wanted to encourage the matter, and therefore a law was enacted according to which the electric company will pay the first-timers for the electricity they produce - 4 times the price it charges them.
The normal payment to the electricity company was then about fifty cents per hour and the electricity company pays me, therefore, NIS 2.05 per hour.
Please note: already here it is only 4 times and this includes the profits of all involved and still leaves me with a huge profit (more than any investment in the bank - this is equivalent, throughout the 20 years of the contract with the electric company, to an annual interest of about 8%. Where will you get such a return high?)
In the meantime, the prices of the systems decreased and at the same time the encouragement of the electric company also decreased.
Today - if I'm not mistaken - the electric company pays around NIS 1.35 for new equipment - it's already somewhere between two and three times (not four times - as I understand) but due to the drop in the prices of the systems it's just as worthwhile.
All this simply would not have been possible if the production cost had been 5 times higher.
If the cost were five times higher, then no electricity company payment that is five times lower would be worthwhile, and the fact is that a twofold payment is also worthwhile!
Again Uri, you think it is 5 times more expensive than gas because someone with an interest told you. I am not responsible for the spins that the Koch brothers distribute.
He specifically said the prices are going down and down and within 3-4 years it will be equal to any other energy. In fact, in Israel it can already be equaled, if not for the gas barons. If it was really 5 times then the process should have taken many more years and not until 2016 in the worst case. And as part of dispelling the myths, he also showed that the payback is within two years. Besides, you have nothing to talk about waiting, when since the XNUMXs, the oil suppliers have always played with prices and dropped them whenever a competing technology was about to break into the market to raise them back up after the 'threat' was removed.
The dream about solar energy is lovely, but what about the cost? As I learned where there are a lot of new concepts there is a blurring of the central problem. Solar energy (panels and not thermo) is currently 5 times more expensive than energy produced from gas. I don't even suggest imagining daily life and its meaning in the world when energy is so expensive. Will someone please lift the glove and explain clearly, how can this terrible gap be bridged today or in the future?