Computing - 10 years ahead

Kobi Spivak, director of the PCON information center, compiled the surprising and interesting predictions for the world of computing and the Internet 10 years from today

A computer-brain interface is going to be the most "futuristic" development we will see in 10 years from now. Operating a robot using a sensor helmet, which detects electrical activity and blood flow patterns in the skull or integrating computing devices in the body, such as a wireless camera that is understood by the human eye, are other developments that will appear to be more and more common ten years from now. Another indicator to be expected in the future is the development by the MTE Power company of an electric charger for mobile devices, which is based on the energy produced by walking. In her estimation, 6 hours of movement will yield enough energy for half an hour to an hour of a cell phone conversation. The company is also in talks with cell phone manufacturers, with the aim of integrating its technology into the phones themselves. Scientists from the Department of Applied Physics at the Hebrew University demonstrated remote sensing of physiological data. the transmitter? human skin An RFID tag implanted under the skin, identification of a person by pupil movement (in development by ID-U Biometrics) or identification through the veins of the fingers (Sony) will be the next means of biometrics. "Computerized clothes" will become, within a decade, a developed niche, which will be used, for example, as a sophisticated personal assistant, which records everything and operates according to the user's condition.

All of these are part of the predictions expected in the future, according to a recent investigation recently published by the Information Center for Computing - pCon. As part of the investigation, news, articles and studies, from hundreds of sources, focused on the distant future, were reviewed, examined and cross-referenced. The investigation, which includes reference to most of the key areas in the world of computing and the Internet, focuses on the most likely predictions, for the profile of the future world of computing, based on the preparation of many hundreds of previous investigations conducted by the center in the past, and 18 years of experience in this field.

What will be renewed in hardware?

In terms of hardware, we will see the processors continue to accelerate and develop. The number of cores will increase. New materials, will promote continued improvement in processors, and will return and delay "the end of Moore's Law". Today, the material Graphene is of great interest, and we are already talking about speeds of up to 1,000 GHz! Breakthroughs in the speed and prices of production of optical chips are also expected. A CD that can store information in a volume 2,000 times more than a DVD, researchers from Swinburne University in Australia are developing, using tiny particles called Nanoparticles. An optical disc that holds information in the volume of a hundred standard DVD media, began to be developed at General Electric, based on holograms. Stanford University researchers have stored 35 bits of information in the quantum space surrounding a single electron! Polaroid introduced a tiny (pocketable) photo printer that prints without ink, using color built into special paper. Xerox promotes printing using solid ink, which dissolves during printing. Printers for the production of XNUMXD models and finally: second-form materials, in a programmable way (possible use for example: changing the shape of cell phones), are already under development by Intel.

And what does it look like in the mobile world?

The cell phone is on its way to becoming a smart wallet; In the next five years, it will become a shopping guide and display 2012D images of products; By XNUMX, cell phones will be able to detect whether the owner of the phone is available for a call or whether it is better to convert the message to a written message. Later, your ability to act will be strengthened, in a way that suits the user's situation. It will become one central device, which also functions as a replacement for the credit card and as a universal remote control.

Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) were able to develop a lithium ion battery that charges within 10 to 20 seconds. The development is expected to go into commercial production in about three years. Silver-zinc technology (compared to lithium-ion today), should allow up to 40% more mobile usage time and also a cycle of 95% of the battery. HP Enviro batteries will maintain their performance up to 1,000 recharges (after 150 recharges, the working times of laptop batteries tend to be significantly reduced). As part of a new Intel research program, technology is being developed for the use of free energy sources (one that is freely available from the environment), including the utilization of electrostatic electricity from the air, body heat and solar energy. And from another direction - a battery based on a (biological) virus, demonstrated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

What will the internet look like?

Web 3.0 - a new generation of the Internet, which "understands" the context of the contents and enables fast semantic search. The browser may expand its role, to a surprising extent, to a situation where the Internet is a platform on which any application can be run. For example: Opera Unite - an interesting feature of the old browser, which turns it into a simple web server. This has interesting possible consequences, including eliminating the need for a web hosting service. Browsing the Internet will become 6D, and the surfer will be able to view a holographic image; Interpersonal interaction on the Internet will improve and become more and more like a conversation at home between friends. With the tremendous increase in the volumes of information, there is no doubt that information search will be the focus of many innovations. It is likely that we will see more convenient interfaces for the search mechanisms (mainly voice interface and touch screens) and search engines that do not require precise wording (it will be possible to contact them in natural language) - the so-called fuzzy searches. Surprises in the infrastructure - there is no doubt that the infrastructure will be gradually upgraded to support the growing demands, including a switch to IPvXNUMX and possibly beyond.

More interesting developments

Beyond these key areas, a series of particularly interesting developments are taking shape, among them:

• Distributed computing - Ubiquitous Computing, will be the situation where the computer "came out of the box" and will connect to life in a distributed way - to our clothes, the meeting diary, the watch, etc. As you will see in the investigation in different places, this "connection" of the computer to everything, is a significant key trend.

• Smart grid - A smart electricity grid is under development, with the goal being to enable the receipt of broader information regarding the consumption of specific components, such as power supply and cooling devices for data centers and its analysis. This way, it will be possible to know exactly how much they consume and when and to improve it. This technology is already in advanced implementation stages.

• Nano technology - 1:1,000,000,000 meters, is the scale of the "nano" world. It is about a completely new world, governed by quantum physics, and opening up a fascinating array of possibilities. Realization of a quantum computer may take much more than a decade. But Toshiba and the University of Cambridge are already developing quantum encryption, which should be almost unbreakable.

• Systems that adapt themselves automatically to the user - today, the user adapts himself to standard hardware - keyboard, mouse, monitor and chair (he usually has only basic adjustment options). Within a decade, it is likely that we will see more customization, the buds of which (the expensive ones are still) are already visible. The ability of computers to better understand their environment will help this adjustment, as well as the adjustment of software to the user's situation.

• Artificial intelligence - the revolution about which much has been written in the past, in which computers will "understand" the world, still seems very far away and there are no real breakthroughs in it yet. However, the research in this field is already helping to advance computer technology in various ways (such as facial recognition based on a photograph).

• Biological computing - within a decade, we may see the first commercial applications of using biological components in computer systems. Already today, there are interesting breakthroughs, in subjects such as information storage using DNA or memory based on neural networks.

Aware of the limitations of forecasts

Despite the comprehensive effort and again based on past experience, all that is possible is to draw the most probable predictions, based on knowledge that exists today. For those who want to form a true and complete picture, they should remember that all predictions are with a limited guarantee - it is difficult to predict what will happen in the future, even when there is a thorough understanding of the field. It is important to remember that there are always unexpected surprises, which change the estimates all the time. Important: How many people predicted that the Internet would become one of the most important technologies in the world? Another possibility is that an unnamed start-up, which is going to be a significant breakthrough, is now being ignored, because it is ahead of its time in a special way. Who heard of Google 10 years ago (one year after the founding)? It is also worth emphasizing that in many cases the predictions do come true, but not at the predicted rate, but faster or, in most cases, more slowly.

The final line

Kobi Spivak, the editor-in-chief of pCon, summarizes things and says that the world of future computing offers a wide spectrum of fascinating and promising technologies that will make our lives more pleasant, more convenient and above all more interesting. The extent to which we will be able to adopt and implement those technologies will greatly affect the benefits we can derive from them.

לMore information about the investigation, which also includes forecasts in other areas, interviews with experts and practical tipsThe pCon information center is operating for the eighteenth year in a row, and it distributes weekly professional investigations that focus on the key issues in the fields of computing and the Internet; For most of the leading computing decision makers, in the largest organizations in Israel. The center operates the website pCon - A portal for practitioners and those interested in computing.