This is according to one of the scenarios in the forecast published yesterday by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The Arab population will also increase, although its growth rate will be slower, because the number of children per woman in this sector, 3.5, is closer to the secular Jews (3) than to the ultra-Orthodox (almost 7)
The Central Bureau of Statistics presents for the first time population forecasts for a period of 50 years, from the end of 2009 to the end of 2059. The results of the forecast show ranges for the size of the population in the future and its composition by age, gender and population group, ranges designed to delineate the possibilities for the development of the population in the future, given the assumptions of the forecast.
According to these forecasts, Israel's population is expected to grow in the decade from the end of 2009 to the end of 2019 by 1-1.6 million people. By the end of 2034 (25 years later) it will increase by 2.4-4.5 million people and in 2059, fifty years from the start of the forecast, it will number another 4.1-12.8 million more people than today.
Today the population of Israel is 7.6 million, while in about a decade it is expected to number 8.6-9.1 million in 2019, 12.1-9.9 million in 2034 and some number between 11 and 15.6 million in 2059
It should be noted that these figures are due to the fact that today's population is young, therefore at least in the first part of the coming year, many of them will be of reproductive age and therefore it will continue to grow, although in the future the growth rate is expected to decrease.
The expected fertility per woman by sector is less than 3 children per woman in the non-Orthodox Jewish sector, 3.5 in the Arab sector and almost 7 in the ultra-Orthodox sector. As a result, the Jewish population without the ultra-Orthodox (but with the addition of non-Jews who are not defined as Arabs, for example immigrants from Russia who are not Jews but feel part of the Israeli-Jewish identity), which numbered 5.27 million in 2009, will number 5.7-6 million in 2019, 15 years later It will number 6-7.1 million people, and in 2059 it will reach 6-10 million (here the range of the forecast varies greatly, not only with regard to this population but in general). The ultra-Orthodox, who numbered about 2009 thousand in 750, will pass the million mark already in 2019 and will reach 2034-1.6 million in 2.1, while in 2069 they will number at least 2.73 million and in the high forecast will even reach 5.8 million.
The Arab population, which currently constitutes 20% of the total population in the country or 1.54 million people, will approach 2 million people in 2019, 2.5 million in 2034 and 3.5 million in 2059 (all of these according to the medium forecast).
As a result of population growth, the population density in Israel is expected to increase significantly from 325 people per square meter in 2009 to 370-394 in 2019, in 2034 it will reach 429-520 people per square meter and in 2059 the density will be at least 50 people per square meter and it is It may even reach 880 people per square meter if the maximum scenario occurs.
In all the forecasts, Israel's population is expected to undergo a significant aging process: an increase in the absolute size of the age groups over 65 and also an increase in their share. According to all forecasts, the share of those aged 65 and over is expected to increase in the short and medium term at an almost identical rate, from 9.8% at the end of 2009, to 12.0%-12.1% in 2019, and to 13.8%-14.9% at the end of 2034.
The share of those aged 80 and over among the 65 and over age group decreased from 28% at the end of 2009 to 25%-26% in 2019, but will rise in the medium term to 30%-34% in 2034, and to 37%-43% in 2059. By the end of the forecast, the group of people aged 80 and over is expected to grow by about 329%-490%, this compared to a general increase of the population of 54%-170%.
29 תגובות
Thus the land was defiled, and its iniquity was placed upon it; And the earth envied its inhabitants
Hashem explains here that we the Jews who live in the land and defile it, the land will throw them up, floods, earthquakes
Do not defile yourselves with all these: for with all these the Gentiles are defiled
And also says that the Gentiles have already done this and were destroyed
And the souls that did it were cut off from their people.
And if the earth doesn't throw you up, these souls will disappear
So it is clear that the religious and believers will stay here, also believing Arabs will stay here, and Christians too
The rest will probably leave for the world, also from an economic point of view it is difficult for the seculars to multiply and they are also the only ones
who fight and are killed, and in addition many of them stop reproducing, and choose a life of impurity
that when the average religious person has at least 5 children, the secular ones are less than half after the offset stated above..
This land is not intended for non-believers, little by little they will not stay here and the believers will multiply
During the British Mandate period, the territory of the State of Israel and the territory of Jordan were one unit intended to serve as a national home for the Jewish people. Unfortunately, however, the British decided to rob us of approximately 70% of our land east of the Jordan River in order to reward the Hashemite family while tearing this area into the "Jordanian Hashemite Kingdom" state. It's time to tell the truth to the face, this country has no right to exist, this is our territory and if we don't want to live in unbearable density as a result of natural proliferation, it's time to return the territory to its original owners.
Avi,
Whoever says that there used to be processes that did not take them into account must agree that there were, and will be. Therefore these models are prophecy given to fools. Let's remember that until not long ago, Israel was the second largest Jewish community in the world, after American Jewry.
There is a potential increase of millions of Jews from the USA alone!
Huldai represents all the average politicians in Israel who see nothing beyond the end of their noses in the upcoming elections. He is helping the most disastrous phenomenon of recent years that the Lubavitcher Rebbe is her biological father - the phenomenon of repentance.
Until he started with it in the XNUMXs, it was taboo in ultra-orthodox society - secular people were not approached.
We must revolt in a popular uprising like the tent protest, because otherwise the politicians will not stop at 10%, nor at 20%, nor at 100%.
By the way, in the conversations with them, even one that was filmed on Channel 2, they explicitly say that they oppose Zionism. Right now there is criticism of the rabbi whose house was killed in a Beit Chabad in Mumbai for agreeing to light torches on the eve of Independence Day. There is no such thing as grades according to their own way. It's their lie to the media.
The only institutions in which they are not infidels are the ones that give them money.
Spring.
Chabad Hasidim are not "Orthodox", they are Zionists (in their own way), they do not disbelieve in the institutions of the state. Most of them will go through a process of secularization in future generations or will become religious Zionists according to the late Hampdal.
Also, the number of converts who join Chasidim of all kinds (including Chabad Chasidim) is negligible and has no effect on the secular demographic. Most of the converts - such as those who travel to India or South America, such as those who become vegetarians or those who become followers of nature reserves - are "spiritual" people ("spiritual" is a type of people who seek their spiritual path sometimes in one direction and sometimes in another).
"Spiritual" people do not cause any significant harm, even if they fool around from time to time (for example, they believe in the messiahship of Barbie Malowitz). In the end, most of the "spiritual" people will contribute to the moral level of our people.
Also, there are many "repeated questions" and their number will increase as the budgets they receive decrease, this is what will happen if the number of ultra-Orthodox people increases beyond a certain percentage (say over 10 percent of the population). No government can oblige the citizens to maintain 40 percent ultra-Orthodox, it will never happen, it won't happen even if the ultra-Orthodox are over 10 percent of the population, if it's just intimidation.
Merom, regardless of political views, in the meantime there was a large increase when the Soviet Union disintegrated. In the current scenario, there is no longer a forecast for an increase on a serious scale.
And here is an example of the short-sightedness of our politicians who do not look beyond the upcoming elections
http://www.atzuma.co.il/negednchabad
Let's remember that in the 80's there were predictions for an Arab majority in the territory of Israel until the year 2000 (!)
source- http://www.latma.co.il/article.aspx?artiId=4857
Take things in proportion. Happy holiday to everyone!
The biggest problem with forecasts is extrapolation. The CBS gives a forecast that is completely based on a straight vector, that is, extrapolation. For some reason the fact that LMS published a few months ago that there is a 15% decrease in births among ultra-Orthodox does not affect this vector of calculation according to 7 children per family. The main reason they explain the decrease in births in ultra-Orthodox families is related to the fact that since there is a decrease in the National Insurance rates (the plan of Bibi Kosher Otzar back in 2003), there is no choice but to go out to earn a living - this is also the reason, according to Bank of Israel publications, that the employment rates for ultra-Orthodox men have increased from 39% to 43% within two years (between 2009 and 2011) when the total employment rate in the Israeli economy is 62% employed. ZA, strong trends of change are taking place among the ultra-orthodox.
I agree that until a large percentage of them do military service, my audience will not be in their audience and as the CEO of a large company, I will not agree in principle to hire them.
Avi,
Maybe you didn't understand. There is not and never was such a phenomenon called "exclusion of women" as defined in the media
If one day they form an army and work, maybe it will still be for the better
Hebrew.
I agreed with you that there is no problem with a small percentage of Torah students who are funded by the state, just as there is no problem with a certain percentage of academics in subjects such as literature or philosophy. The problem is quantity, not quality, and I don't think the state should bear the burden of a large public whose theory is their art, just as brilliant theoretic scientists cannot demand that the farmers and pickle sellers finance their studies and research if they make up too large a percentage of the population.
The simplest - tell me what is the reasonable percentage of hard-working ultra-Orthodox people who do not have time for daily frivolities such as earning a living. Maybe we will be able to bargain and reach an even valley where everything will be agreed upon.
Mirom, you didn't refute anything, maybe it's a minority that demands it, but it violently imposes it on the whole ultra-Orthodox society.
Israel,
What does it have to do with the size of the population of ultra-Orthodox society if few will serve as "scholars". The basis of the discussion should be the scope of support and the exit of the ultra-Orthodox to the labor market.
To the moderator of the universe: I did not mention the matter of faith here, but the allocation of resources to Jewish cultural enterprises. I also believe that the ultra-Orthodox should (and can) contribute to Israeli society in their own way and the budgeting should be subject to the requirements of the state.
Avi,
I have already refuted at least once the nonsensical argument about "exclusion of women".
Why do you insist on re-bouncing it? Have you also fallen victim to trollism? 😉
This conversation is strange. Every time secular bodies claim that unfair budgets should be reduced for a population group that is not ready to be part of the system, some claim that this is an attack on the ultra-orthodox, on their lifestyles and faith.
Always remember: a person is allowed to believe in any nonsense that comes before him, provided that he does so at his own expense and without harming others.
To Avi Blizovsky: I did not mean Yair Lapid. In the future when we will be tortured more and more, someone will rise up and light a big fire.
Hebrew
From your words: "The dose should be such that for a few percent it will be their Torah - their art"
If so, then let it be. But the title of the article mentions 40%... and as we all know the support is not only in those few percentages you mentioned.
So even though I personally have nothing against ultra-Orthodox, don't you think that there should be an end to this institutionalized parasitism under the guise of "the ethos of learning as a purpose"?
Israel,
The ethos of learning as a goal is one of the most famous among the people of the book, and the State of Israel as the state of the Jewish people (unlike the USA) *should* allocate its economic resources in favor of Jewish cultural enterprises.
So yes, I would be interested in the State of Israel allocating a portion of its resources to yeshiva just as it allocates its resources to other cultural activities. The question is, as always, what is the scope, what is the dose. The dose should be such that for a few percent it will be their Torah - their art, but the rabbi of the ultra-orthodox public will make a living from free trades.
Hebrew
You write "It should be remembered that the majority of American Jewry was founded on an Eastern European religious Jewish population. The openness of American society, which knew how to accommodate the Jews, made their prosperity and integration possible."
But you don't mention the small difference, that American Jewry is not supported by the state (USA). They work for a living. The Amish too.
What is serious is the way people are treated here "even if they are ultra-Orthodox".
I don't mind if there are more or less ultra-Orthodox. It should be remembered that the majority of American Jewry was founded on an Eastern European religious Jewish population. The openness of the American society that knew how to accommodate the Jews allowed their prosperity and integration.
Since the society here in Israel is an open society and since the ultra-Orthodox population can no longer shut itself off in narrow ghettos, we will see an increasing integration of this population into the fabric of social life here in Israel.
and better this way.
It seems logical that increasing financial specialization encourages childbirth,
In practice, there is an inverse relationship between the standard of living/financial situation and the number of children,
Yair Lapid, as I remember, "circled corners" with enter the coalition
In front of his announcements against religious coercion during the elections.
More and more it is possible to understand Fr. Leibovitz, who claimed that she should not have religion
Let her have a relationship with the state and the government.
The question is whether it is possible in the current situation to separate religion from the state,
The other solutions that are raised will not help and will not change.
There is no anti-Orthodox center party. Yair Lapid explicitly said that this was not his direction. In addition, the seven children of the ultra-Orthodox on average per woman is probably the highest figure of its kind in the entire world today.
Follow the money!
The most basic assumption of this prediction is wrong. The assumption is based on the fact that an ultra-Orthodox woman will continue to give birth to about 7 children for the benefit of the ultra-Orthodox sector.
The assumption is based on another hidden assumption, that the government will continue to finance the costs of this birth rate.
There can be many other scenarios, such as a secular rebellion that will occur just before the seculars become another negligible sector in the patchwork mosaic that makes up Israeli society. Such a rebellion can occur on several levels, and it can have different types of triggers: a severe recession, war, a single event of a secular ultra-Orthodox encounter, and more. None of these events are far removed from current reality.
An event in which an anti-Orthodox center party sweeps 25 seats is not science fiction. In such a case, any government that is formed will have to change its internal software that has controlled the dome for several decades and brutally cut the funds flowing to the ultra-Orthodox. The immediate result of this would also be a dramatic reduction in the birth rate.
Other results could be the departure of ultra-Orthodox people to work due to acute shortages, and subsequently getting to know the world around them,
And there is a growing attempt to resemble this environment also through reducing the birth rate.
In a modern world, in a modern country, a person can raise 7 children only if the regime supports it!
Oh, yes, at this density that is described in this study? You should run and buy lots even if they are at sea!
Unfortunately, at the moment, they only worry a handful of secularists because the others live in the illusion that it will pass, just another small aggravation of the religious coercion (a law requiring complete separation between men and women everywhere, for example), another neighborhood that will go to Pipen (not bad, all of Ramat Aviv), not bad we will overcome The problem is that it doesn't stop. And people vote according to a security platform instead of according to what really endangers the country.
If these predictions worry a handful of secular fanatics then let them start having more children. As long as they don't intend to do that - stop scaring us every Monday and Thursday with apocalyptic prophecies
my father
If we add to the ultra-orthodox population the religious, Jewish and Muslim population
And those, the traditional/mitzvot observant, will remain a very small secular minority,
Therefore, it is likely that the government in Israel and its laws will be administered under the religion and its commandments.
Do you think I'm exaggerating??
.
my father
They should have pointed out that the results of the calculations are partly based on the assumption that in the next 50 years God will not reveal himself to everyone and then 100% will be ultra-Orthodox
: )
It's time to see the movie idiocracy, it will be our 1984...
Well, then start screwing up your brain less and start more...