A new study indicates a possible connection between lightning in East Africa and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean

This is according to a study by Prof. Colin Price from Tel Aviv University, and Dr. Yoav Yair (and Dr. Mustafa Asfor (from the Open University)) published this week in Geophysical Research Letters 

The 2007 hurricane season is upon us, and tens of millions of people in the southeastern United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean are anxiously wondering whether it will be as wild and stormy as 2005, with superstorms like Katrina and Rita, or May it be mild and average like the 2006 season (contrary to the forecasters' warnings), in which not a single hurricane reached the shores of the USA.
Global forecasting services are looking for early indicators for an early interpretation of the nature of the hurricane season. A new study by Prof. Colin Price (Tel University), Dr. Yoav Yair (The Open University) and Dr. Mustafa Asfor (The Open University) shows a possible connection between lightning activity in East Africa and the number and intensity of storms in the Atlantic Ocean , and offers a new parameter for early warning of the chances of their formation. The research was published this week in the important journal Geophysical Research Letters.
The researchers examined the number of lightning strikes in a defined area in East Africa (the Ethiopian plateau), between latitudes 10 and 20 North and 30 to 40 East. The data was obtained based on electromagnetic signals spreading from telegrams in the very-low-frequency (VLF) field collected through a worldwide network of receiving stations, one of whose antennas is located on the Tel Aviv University campus. They compared the number of lightning days to the wind data on meteorological maps in an area that is from the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania in West Africa to the 40 west latitude, which is the area where the storms hit. The main finding shows that in 90% of cases, when the number of lightning in East Africa was higher than average, the storms moving from the eastern Atlantic Ocean to the western direction do become hurricanes. The quieter year 2006 was characterized by lightning activity that was 23% lower than its predecessor, in which the number of hurricanes broke records. The researchers found that the intensification of lightning precedes the formation of storms on the west coast of Africa by two weeks. Since the lightning data can be tracked in real time, this period of time may allow early warning and preparation.
The physical explanation for this lies in the existence of atmospheric waves moving from east to west over the African continent during the summer season. Every year about 60 such waves are formed and within them storm systems are formed that bring down rains and are also characterized by large amounts of lightning. When the intensity of the lightning storms is intense and their electrical activity is high, the clouds constitute a kind of obstacle to the regular flow of the winds and cause the formation of eddies, similar to large stones found in a stream of water. Downstream, after the obstacle, there is a greater chance of increasing instability and the formation of atmospheric disturbances, which in most cases do grow later and become barometric depressions and large-scale tropical storms. These storms pass over the coast of West Africa, move over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and may strengthen to hurricanes.
The research was supported by the research fund of the Open University.
East African lightning as a precursor of Atlantic hurricane activity
Colin Price, Yoav Yair, and Mustafa Asfur

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028884, 2007