This was the result of a war game titled "ISIS, Cyber and Nuclear: A Regional War Game" held by the Laboratory for Security Simulations and Strategic War Games at the Yuval Na'eman Science, Technology and Security Workshop at Tel Aviv University in collaboration with the Multidisciplinary Cyber Research Center for Belventik and the Dayan Center for Studies the Middle East
The date - March 2016. A sequence of seemingly unrelated events engulfs the Middle East. Daesh is occupying the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala north of Baghdad. Another cell of the organization with the help of dormant cells occupies an airport in northern Jordan, Iran cancels the nuclear agreement that it signed half a year earlier; Missiles from Sinai on Eilat and Aqaba, attacks with small arms and mortar bombs on IDF forces in the Golan. And these are just examples of the ever-increasing chaos that Israel is at the center of, and is taking ricochets, even if it is not the main enemy.
The scenario described here was the basis for a war game entitled "ISIS, Cyber and Nuclear: A Regional War Game" held by the Laboratory for Simulation and War Games of the Yuval Na'eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security at Tel Aviv University led by Prof. Yitzhak Ben Israel, which this time was also held in collaboration with the Dayan Center for Oriental Studies The high school at Tel Aviv University is headed by Prof. Uzi Rabi. Each country or international body was represented by a researcher specializing in it, who was asked to think like the leader of that country.
Each country (Israel, USA, Russia, Jordan, Iran), organization (for example Daesh) or international body (UN, international media) will be represented by an expert for that country with the aim of not thinking like Israelis but like the leaders of those bodies in order to get the most reliable result.
During three stages of the exercise, the participants received news reports about what was happening in the entire arena, and in particular with their opponents, so that they could respond to the happenings.
In the simulation, it became clear how complex the situation is - the US is a rival of Iran in everything related to the nuclear issue, but they are required to cooperate with Daesh. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are afraid of Iran, but also of their destabilization by Daesh. Israel is threatened by both sides, but is every enemy of my enemy my friend?
"There is no doubt that we are in the literal sense of the term 'new Middle East' and this requires a new way of thinking," said Prof. Yitzhak Ben Israel, head of the Yuval Na'eman Science, Technology and Security Workshop and the Blavatnik Multidisciplinary Center for Cyber Research, Tel Aviv University.
The developer of the game, Dr. Haim Asa, head of the laboratory for security simulations and strategic war games at the Yuval Na'aman workshop, explains: "The game begins with ISIS threatening Baghdad and then the Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf and conquering them. The Iranians are going crazy and playing a pretty nasty game that we have to remember that they are capable of. We did it on their behalf and hope they don't play it. They took advantage of the matter to cancel the agreement they had signed eight months earlier. And their assumption was that the Americans would do nothing because Daesh threatens both the Americans and Israel."
"This is a picture of the Middle East we didn't know. We didn't know each other so much, that we only have to do one thing - forget about history. We are still living the debates about whether to return the Golan Heights. There is almost no Syria, Jordan disintegrated in this game (and may fall in reality as well according to most of the experts who participated in the AB conference), Iraq disintegrated a long time ago. There are interesting new players like the Kurds, there is the need to understand what is happening here, study the map of interests and understand what coalitions we are able to make even with those who hurt us, who threatened us and will continue to threaten us. There is a completely new game here and, unfortunately, I fear that our politicians for public reasons are still afraid to break free from what has been happening until now, because this is what the public is used to, and this is also what brings mandates."
Prof. Uzi Rabi, head of the Dayan Center, who participated in the simulation game and many of whose researchers represented the countries of the region and ISIS in the game, says that Israel should study Middle East studies.
"I wanted to thank the Yuval Na'eman workshop and this war game that also allowed the researchers of the Dayan Center to join it. We have provided the gallery of the Middle East leaders. In many ways this game was useful and very effective because this game illustrated, regardless of the details of this or that country or player, that we are in a completely different Middle East."
"If there was something that was intertwined as the second thread in the conduct of various actors, states and non-state movements, it was a matter of a completely different rhythm that requires a different quiver of arrows and a set of tools that can measure phenomena of the 21st century in the Middle East. Anyone who spoke in terms of the 20th century realized how irrelevant his words were."
"The entire conduct is not in terms of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, but of identities - Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds. The ideologies that occupy them are ancient ideologies that have nothing to do with the decisions of the British and the French to draw the borders (Sykes-Picot Agreements). Israel needs to learn the new identities. Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are an important player and of course Turkey. We saw that the starting point is less important than how things unfold."
"Another thing that the game touched on in an interesting way is the question of how to bring the tools of the 21st century into this picture. This is a century of overflowing information, of falling walls of information, a lot of stimulation and friction between cultural groups. In the shadow of this dynamic - you need to understand the movements that rise and float from below. "
"Israel in a broad sense is not a target, it is a tool used by all players to improve their position against the enemy (Iran or the Sunni countries and ISIS respectively). Israel is technologically stronger than others, it has no existential threat but it cannot exercise its power. We need to reach out to those who will help reduce the risk."
Cyber attacks for the purpose of deception
Part of the war game also included cyber attacks from several directions. "The cyber weapon was in the air and influenced the decisions of all parties," said Dr. Asa, who added that "the role of the cyber attacks, apart from the damage it did, the frauds and the false accusations of other parties in the attacks, is that it was in the air, both the Prime Minister of Israel and the President of the United States "B. Suspect any information received that it may have been changed or distorted due to cyber attacks and therefore act with caution."
Prof. Uzi Rabbi: "Israel needs to learn how to bring the tools of the 21st century into the picture of the Middle East. This is a century of overflowing information, of falling walls of information, a lot of stimulation and friction between cultural groups. In the shadow of this dynamic - it is necessary to understand the things that float from below that end up changing the map of the area. In the 21st century, those who do not have an answer to a cybernetic attack in their quiver will be left behind."
Prof. Yitzhak Ben Israel also chose to refer to the future importance of cyber, compared to the current situation: "The dimension of cyber was in the background, it was not prominent in the game because, among other things, we included events such as nuclear, but it is certainly possible that in the next game we will start with cyber and then add the The other dimensions.”
The victory of Daesh
And perhaps the main winner of the game was the Daesh organization. In order to prevent Daesh from winning in the real world as well, you should listen to the words of Dr. Ronan Seidel, the deputy head of the Iraq Research Center at the University of Haifa and a lecturer on the subject at Haifa, Tel Aviv and the Hebrew Universities, who represented the Daesh organization in the simulation, which was saved time and time again from harm because All the other players were busy fighting each other and all surrendered to ISIS. "As much as they beat us, so will we multiply and so will we be broken. The infidels are weak, and it doesn't matter what types of infidels. We are moving towards the warm waters of the Shat al Arab, we will see who can stop us there. In the meantime, the number of the Mujahideen is increasing, the willingness to volunteer is increasing, we are on our way to Amman. I hope that the Sykes Pico Agreement and what is left of it is on its way to a final dissolution." Perhaps it is better for Dr. Seidel to say this now than for the real Daesh spokesman to say them.
35 תגובות
weak
Do you think that in 5 years, the situation of the Jews in Israel will improve or get worse?
My Shmulik, 1: I really don't care. Let them drown in their own shit. Threats to the Jewish people? You will receive in the head! tit for tat. ass ass ass and all the other things. (In any case, I don't decide. And certainly not you or your ilk) 2: No.
weak
I've got two questions
1. Bibi is chosen. Where do you see us and the Palestinians in 5 years?
2. Would you prefer the elections to be canceled and Bibi to remain prime minister forever?
Shmulik, there is no problem in the country. The only problem with the media is that it is leftist. that's it. 🙂 Now drink a glass of water and go to sleep. Good night.
Let's do an exercise
Some candidate for the presidency of the USA releases a clip and tells his voters like this:
"The Jews are coming to the polls in huge numbers, so go out and vote"
What do you think Abe Foxman would do?
weak,
You have not answered any of my claims and basically nothing has changed or in fact everything has gotten worse.
Enjoy Miri Rakev as the Minister of Education
Enjoy Torah Judaism as head of the finance committee.
Enjoy scientific, criminal convicted of bribery, kosher interior minister. Will he turn back winter time?
Enjoy the fact that they will not recruit ultra-Orthodox
Enjoy endless money pouring into the territories
Enjoy the fact that the USA will no longer protect us in the Security Council
Enjoy Lieberman as Minister of Defense
Enjoy war this summer
Enjoy living in Gaza because we are automatically becoming an Arab country. Everything will be intense.
What do you say about the interview that Bibi gave in which he again says that he is in favor of two states? What do you think two countries are? That means Bibi wants to return territories, doesn't it?
Miracles
You are right-wing like Ahmed Tibi is right-wing.
And if things had happened as you described - the people would not have elected him for the fourth time.
It turns out that the sane majority knows what is good for them and the weak (left) mob that is on the fringes of society fails to justify their own cheap demagoguery...
parable.
Leftists are fed up
I'm right-wing... but Bibi has done irreparable damage to Israel.
I thought the leftists were gone... I was wrong. They are both here. 🙂
Shmulik
I liked. Good joke (your response).
Question: When will you move to Gaza?
Miracles,
You're right but I don't see it happening.
Shmulik
That's not what I meant. If Kahlon is smart, he won't go with Bibi, and then I think Bibi won't be able to form a government.
Kahlon will dissolve just as Yair will dissolve at Bibi's.
Nothing can flourish at Bibi's.
Shmulik
Israel, in my opinion, will pay a heavy price because of the lack of intelligence of the majority of voters. This situation will only get worse.
On the other hand, if Kahlon is smart, he can block Bibi... So maybe there is room for some hope?
did not disappear,
This is a scientific forum, so I limit my posts on such topics, but if you have already asked, my answer is: enjoy.
Enjoy a government that will consist of Lieberman, Deri, Litzman, Bennett and the new fig leaf: Kahlon.
A government in which two senior ministers are criminals: Lieberman and Deri
A government in which a huge percentage are homophobic and misogynistic
A government that will not be able to do anything except say no.
To my brothers in the south I will say this: dear south: unemployment, the cost of living, rising housing prices, factories closing, 50-year-olds laid off with no future, wars, massacres, neglect of the periphery, I don't want to hear a word anymore. Go cry to Likud.
I have a nice apartment. My wife and I are well spaced. My children will learn English, math, evolution and science. After all, as long as I am a Jew in Israel, I am quite protected in my little bubble and also released from the reserves. have fun
Where did all the leftists go after the heavy defeat? Interesting… 🙂
Emanuel, I think you are correct. As for Daesh, as soon as Erdogan stops buying oil from them and trading with them, they will weaken, and become another criminal organization. In general, the prime minister of Turkey has become the main whitewasher of terrorism.
The real threat to the existence of our culture is not Daesh, nor Iran, nor any Arab country, the threat is within us and it is
The cynical exploitation of the underprivileged by the banks by commercial companies and by just bad-hearted people
The heartbreaking stories of entire families who entered the cycle of poverty and society's disregard for them
Moses commanded us to help an orphan and a widow live
And even warned us
Do not mess with them and do not take advantage of them because otherwise I will be the one who will take their revenge (in my words)
These are the threats and don't let Bibi and all the "security experts" scare you
I was born in the early sixties to a poor family
But at school we received notebooks, pencils, books (which changed from year to year, no one printed math books every year) hot meals every afternoon
All the schools in the country were more or less at the same level
Today the poor do not have the opportunity and ability to get a reasonable education
And that, gentlemen, is the big threat
And finally, in order to preserve the Jewish majority, it must be encouraged. Therefore, Israel needs to guarantee a high standard of living for its citizens. And this is in addition to a sense of security.
This is an opportunity to mention Yuval Neman, who was a talented scientist (who could have won the Nobel Prize). and tried to promote the Sea Canal, to create electricity. He supported the settlement in Judea and Samaria. But he was still a man with an open mind. I believe that Israeli control of Samaria and Judea strengthens Israel, both security-wise, and also constitutes a market for Israeli goods and Israeli money. I do not connect with the social isolation of the right To the weak and to the right's hatred of the Arabs. And what kind of right is it that in the end it withdraws from Hebron, discusses the return of the Golan, and releases terrorists! Yemin Elek
"And thanks" to the Saudi Minister of Intelligence (who has been dismissed for the time being) who funded and established Daesh, "thanks" to Qatar who gave them money. These are Bibi's friends. And as for Iran, which is also strong in financing terrorism, together with its Sunni and nuclear neighbor Pakistan. Perhaps this is another reason for Iran to develop a nuclear industry. But it is easiest for Iran and its neighbors to argue about Israel. Because they hate the countries around them no less - with no more.
waiting
Don't run away from the facts
Wow,
a question. When you are motivated by a sense of conversation and think that you are the divine answer to the Iranian problem but hesitate to attack (because you are impersonal, a coward, not ready to take responsibility as Meir Dagan said. In fact Dagan said: Bibi did not attack because he was not ready to take responsibility. I have never seen him take responsibility). In order to deal with the Iranian threat, do you:
A. Destroys regional alliances
B. Eliminates any political process
third. Systematically and completely destroys relations with the US, the only country that can do something against Iran and also with the West
d. All the answers are correct
No one then, but no one, answered any of my arguments and I was also accused of demagoguery by someone called a conspirator.
The problem is that all my arguments stand and that's what pisses off the delusional rightists.
The right, and only the right is the one that has ever returned territories. Here is the breakdown: Begin returned Sinai, Bibi returned Hebron (the city of the ancestors!) and Sharon returned Gaza. Not the left. the right The pathetic right, which is strong in talk, has always been the one that returned territories.
The right is Nir's tiger, consisting of a bunch of talkbackists who sit at the cabinet table. A cliff was a crazy mess where the government decided to wage a pathetic war in a pathetic way. It was amazing to see every day the talkbackists Lieberman and Bennett telling the news what should be done to Hamas, as if they were not sitting at the cabinet table and making decisions. delusional Bennett is proud that he pushed for the elimination of the tunnels. Rabak, they were known to the government since 2004. Ministers took pictures in the content. He deserves no credit. For two years he sat in the government while Hamas dug into our country!!!! and Yuk. Only a week or two into the war, they started to take care of them, because the unclear goals that the cabinet defined at the beginning of the war cried out for replacement and the public became aware of the tunnels. How can you poor right-wingers not punish Bibi for this? how? Have you no shame and honor? What is most amazing in the end is the gap between the ideology of the cabinet members (occupation, annexation) and their statements (we will eliminate Hamas, Hamas is like ISIS) and the poor way in which we ended the war against what the right itself defines as a terrorist organization. pathetic. wretched. medium. defeatist
Bibi just destroys everything he touches and there is no area in our lives that has improved because of things he initiated or did but there is no point in getting into that. Whoever thinks he is a worthy leader, let him choose him and he deserves the misery, the intimidation, the burning pessimism, the inaction, the inability to take responsibility, the cost of living, the political deterioration, unemployment, the sanctions that are on the way against us and the Arab state that Bibi is establishing in place of the State of Israel (not a binational state but a state Arabic). It's crazy that the right is pushing for what Balad and Tibi want: an Arab state between the West Bank and the Mediterranean Sea.
I'll be back again:
Only the right ever returned territories. Bibi preached against returning territories and returned Hebron. Bibi preached against releasing terrorists and returned 1000 terrorists for Gilad Shalit. The man is a spineless liar.
And don't evade my main argument: after six years of the divine answer in power, Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon. This is a fact. We are excluded from the nuclear negotiations, our relations with the superpowers are at an unprecedented low even though we depend on them to the depths of our souls and there is no hope of positive change under it. I wish that after the elections he would be kicked home by the Likud people who despise him.
Face the facts right. Again nothing you do works except to establish an Arab state instead of Israel. Vote Tibi.
Miracles,
The left ass was not good? Huh? I don't know what is good, but under Rabin Oslo was signed and only after him did the really big investments come in. McDonald's entered Israel only after Oslo
http://www.haaretz.co.il/opinions/1.1569402
What actually prevents Iran from purchasing off-the-shelf nuclear weapons from its great friend North Korea?
Why should they make such an effort to secretly develop a nuclear weapon when it can reach them by ship from another country?
Social Akbar
You're right. And the country will continue to deteriorate at an increasing rate. The level of education, for example, is in constant decline. It's sad that this is so, and maybe it's really better to bury your head in the sand and think that everything is great.
A broken government? Don't worry.. she will regroup for the umpteenth time after the elections are over.. 🙂
Goat on a toothpick
True - because he is so successful there is a broken government...
Shmulik
You can't do without conspiracies huh?
That commenter is not me.
And Bibi is the best prime minister we've had to date (apart from Sharon Zetzal and maybe Begin as well).
I understand that you prefer a boy in a Bar Mitzvah suit to protect us from the backs of our heads... your right But, the people don't think like you.
To Shmolik the demagogue. so:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nok5xHJRoiI
And this is what the Arabs say, not the right.
Shmulik
The left was in power - it was not good. Easy to forget it…
But, I definitely agree that the government should be replaced with something less bad.
Miracles,
Is Iran a nuclear threshold country? Yes or very close to it
Did his (public) moves help or harm the West in trying to stop Iran's ascendancy? hurt
Did you read and hear what Meir Dagan wrote and said?
Did you read what Shatti Shavit said?
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-4635757,00.html
Has he done anything to make the West think we are allies? Do you remember Yitzhar in front of Bushehr? He preferred the settlements and his political survival over creating a real alliance with Iran
Are any of the world leaders on whom we hang by our necks, especially after he hesitated and did not attack Iran, because he is only a paper tiger, a chicken sheet as they said about him in the American administration? On the contrary, he never stopped burning bridges. Do you remember the conversation between Sarkozy and Obama and what they said about him when they thought no one was listening?
Trust me, I have a lot more to write, I've barely started warming up but that's not the point.
The point is the wisdom displayed by a conspirator (the ghost) when he blames the left for Bibi's failures. He reminds me of people in a lunatic asylum, with saliva on the side of their mouth muttering delusional nonsense.
Rabak, Bibi in power for 6 years (and in his previous previous term he held Hebron), before him was Olmert and before him Sharon who returned Gaza, neither of them is a leftist. In the last two years Bibi was also joined by the talkbackists Lieberman who never, but never really did anything except be convicted of beating a child and the delusional Bennett who wants to add a hundred thousand Palestinians to the State of Israel, and still nothing, Iran is still rushing to the bomb and in the process we managed to be defeated by Hamas. And who do you think Rafa is to blame for everything? the left
Delicious
Shmulik
Say what you want about Bibi, but you can't claim to have failed regarding the Iranian threat. What exactly would you call a victory - attacking Iran? Launches from Iran that were intercepted by Arrow missiles?
Stunning.
Bibi has been in power for six years and he has failed in every issue, he was defeated by Hamas on a solid cliff, Iran is a nuclear threshold state under his rule and the wise conspirator is unable to understand what responsibility is. All he can do is whine.
A nuclear Iran is an existential threat to Israel. It's an absolute consensus. No one thinks otherwise.
Bibi is prime minister. The absolute responsibility is on him. He failed. Let him fly home.
Iran is winning. It gets nuclear weapons and it de facto controls Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and partially Gaza... later on it will probably take over Afghanistan, Bahrain and even Kuwait. And all with the help of her allies Obama and the Israeli left. And if God forbid we abandon Yosh Iran and Cizballah they will sit 5 minutes from Tel Aviv. And that will be the end of the state and the Zionist dream.
Was there anyone who represented the Palestinians? Or Hamas? And what were their moves? And did they include what happens in North Africa in the game?
It seems to me that this game highlights important points, but it also remains stuck in a number of old positions and has lost steam over them, the first of which is the "centrality" of Israel. Well, in the Mazat (not to mention the world) war between the Sunnis and the Shiites, Israel is pushed to the margins. We mainly need to learn to stay on the sidelines, out of the heart of the commotion, and let the Sunnis and Shiites vent their anger on each other. They have a lot of ammunition there, the Americans continue to send huge amounts of ammunition and they reach all the elements in the field quite quickly, so the end is still far away.
It sounds interesting, it's just a shame that there are no more details about the conduct of the war game so that we can get an impression. Was the game open to the public or was it done in a closed setting? interesting.
Yehuda