Global warming is already here. In order for us to deal with it, there is an urgent need for innovations in the fields of technology and policy dealing with energy
by Gar Sticks
Over the centuries explorers tried, and mostly failed, to find a transit route from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean through the ice-covered north, a task usually accompanied by famine and scurvy. Now, the rise in the thermometer shows that in just forty years, and perhaps even sooner, the maritime dream of Sir Francis Drake and Captain John Cook will become a real trade route, competing with the Panama Canal.
Unlike glaciers, the change will be rapid. However, the opening of Arctic shipping lanes will actually be one of the negligible effects of accelerated climate change. The consequences of the melting of the glaciers, of the disturbances in the Gulf Stream and of the record-breaking heat waves are approaching disaster proportions: floods, plagues, hurricanes, years of drought and even the worsening of skin burns as a result of contact with stinging plants, such as poison ivy. Every month more reports accumulate about the harmful effects of the increase in carbon dioxide levels in the air. One recent study documents the threat to corals and other marine life. Another study describes a large increase in the number of large forest fires in the western United States, which result from warming.
The global warming debate is over. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere today - almost 400 parts per million (ppm) - is higher than it has been at any time during the last 650,000 years, and will easily pass the 500 ppm threshold by 2050, if there is no vigorous intervention.
The earth needs the greenhouse gases, including water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane, to prevent some of the heat coming from the sun from escaping back into space, thus ensuring that the planet will continue to show faces to amoebas, ponies and Brad Pitt. But everything that adds diminishes, especially when it comes to carbon dioxide originating from off-road vehicles and coal-burning power plants, which steadily raises the temperature. Almost every one of the 20 warmest years on record occurred after the 80s.
No one knows exactly what will happen if nothing is done. It is impossible to accurately predict the date when the polar ice sheet will completely transition from solid to liquid, which is why the Bush administration, and public interest groups that doubt global warming, continue to talk about the uncertainty of climate change. However, no climate scientist is interested in testing what would happen if carbon dioxide levels rise well beyond 500 ppm.
The Allowance League
Preventing the Earth's atmosphere from turning from a greenhouse to an out-of-control sauna is perhaps the greatest scientific and technical challenge humanity has ever faced. Sustainable management of cross-border engineering and political resources, over a century or more, to control rising carbon emissions, is a task that makes landing on the moon or developing the atomic bomb in the Manhattan Project relatively simple tasks.
Climate change requires the rebuilding of the global energy economy. The concerns regarding the supply of mineral fuel will reach crisis proportions only when the maintenance of the climate is taken into account. Even if oil production will soon pass its peak - a rather dubious assumption, since the oil sands of Canada, the heavy oil of Venezuela and other reservoirs - coal and its derivatives will be able to power the world for at least another hundred years. However, fossil fuel, which provides 80% of the world's energy consumption, is increasingly becoming a problem when trying to determine the global carbon budget.
When you try to turn the scientific consensus on climate change into a consensus about what needs to be done, you move the debate into a political minefield of the kind that has too often destroyed attempts to create international governance since the days of the "League of Nations." The United States has less than 5% of the world's population but produces almost 25% of carbon emissions, and has been playing the role of the "bad guy" since it did not comply with the Kyoto Protocol and failed to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level 7% lower than the 1990 level.
However, one of the main stumbling blocks of the United States - the fact that the agreement lacks a requirement for the developing countries to agree to strict limits on emissions - is expected to become an even bigger obstacle in a future agreement, which should enter into force with the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. The rapid economic growth of China and India will lead industrialized nations to demand limits on emissions. Such a demand will be met with even more decisive responses, according to which the citizens of Shenzhen and Hyderabad deserve the same opportunities to build the economy as Detroit and Frankfurt received at the time.
The Kyoto Protocol was perhaps a necessary first step, if only because it illuminated the difficult road ahead. But stabilizing carbon emissions will require a more tangible plan to encourage economic growth while creating a carbon-free energy infrastructure. The "beyond oil" slogans of the fuel companies are not enough.
Industry groups promoting the use of nuclear power and clean coal have proposed visions of clean energy that rely on a single solution, but prematurely allocating too many resources to a single technology could prove to be the wrong solution and disrupt momentum toward an achievable carbon reduction agenda. A breakthrough in solar cells may usher in the photovoltaic era, allowing both a steel mill and a person using a cell phone to get all the electricity they need from a single source. But if this does not happen - and it most likely will not happen - many technologies (biofuels, sunlight, hydrogen and nuclear power) will be required to achieve a low-carbon energy supply. Some of these approaches are described in this special issue by leading experts in their field.
No more business as usual
Long-term planning for fifty or a hundred years is perhaps an impossible dream. The faint hope of keeping carbon levels in the atmosphere below 500 ppm depends on firm plans to optimize the use of energy, to be determined by national governments. In order to move beyond the scenario known by climate experts as "business as usual", the US must follow the lead of Europe, and even some of the governments of the countries within it, and establish new policies that will put a price tag on carbon - whether in the form of a tax on emissions or as part of a cap system - and trading (total emission allowances that are limited to a certain level and traded in open markets). These steps can create the breathing space to establish the large-scale research programs required to develop alternatives to fossil fuels. The apparent void in current federal policy has prompted a group of states in the eastern US to develop their own cap-and-trade program called the "Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative".
Time frames of fifty years are suitable for the plans of futurists, not practical policy makers. It is possible that during this time, a new miracle energy technology will solve both the energy and climate problems, but another scenario is equally likely: failure of the Kyoto treaty or international wrangling over climate issues will encourage the burning of coal for electricity generation and the use of artificial fuels for transportation, but They will not really limit carbon emissions.
A steady chorus of skeptics continues to question the extensive and serious scientific literature that is the cornerstone of the global warming consensus. “They call it pollution; We call it life," reads an advertisement by the "Institute for Competitive Initiative" in favor of carbon dioxide. Undoubtedly, uncertainty about the extent and rate of warming will remain; But the results of the lack of action may be worse than the expected economic damage if over-caution is taken. If we wait for the ice cap to disappear, it will be too late.
Overview
Every month more reports accumulate about the dangers of climate change, including a threat to marine life, an increase in the number of fires and even more serious burns as a result of contact with poisonous plants.
Implementing initiatives to uproot the root cause of global warming will pose an even greater challenge than landing on the moon.
In the following articles, leading thinkers list some ideas for implementing energy technologies, which will reduce the amount of carbon in the Earth's atmosphere.
Things are heating up
A US senator has called global warming "the biggest hoax" ever to mislead the American people. But despite the stubborn and loud rhetoric, the skeptics find it increasingly difficult to stand behind their claims: the scientific confirmation of global warming continues to grow stronger.
And more on the subject
The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World. Paul Roberts. Houghton Mifflin, 2004
Kicking the Carbon Habit. William Sweet. Columbia University Press, 2006
An Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore. Rodale, 2006
