If NASA has its eye on Mars or a base on the moon, that might be great for Boeing and Lockheed. Isn't that so?
If it seems to us that the possibility of a US mission to Mars or the Moon will bring a blessing to the nation's space industry, the industrialists and surgeons are more connected to the ground.
NASA is not commenting on reports that the Bush administration may announce a new target for the nation's space program - possibly as early as Wednesday, the XNUMXth anniversary of the Wright brothers' first flight - other than to say that a task force is considering options.
Among the options being considered are bringing a man to Mars or establishing a permanent manned base on the surface of the moon.
Analysts in the sector said that the profit margin of any company that wins a main contract in such an operation will be relatively low. Most likely, the winning companies will be Benning or the Lockheed Martin Corporation.
"None of these companies are gaining significant share in this segment," said Deutsche Bank analyst Chris McRae. "It's a business where profits are low. It's not a bad deal, but it's not going to change the situation more than a fat security contract, or maybe even a medium security contract."
Even the managers of the companies, despite the interest they show in every new operation to fly a man into space, agree that the effect such an operation will have on their profits is limited.
"I personally don't see NASA's budget increasing significantly, or giving away the sky to contractors," said Michael Coates, a former astronaut who is vice president of Advanced Space Transportation at Lockheed Martin Space Systems.
Part of the reason is that Coates and others doubt that NASA will receive the considerable commitment of resources to manned travel that it received during the space race in the sixties and seventies of the last century, when NASA's budget reached as much as 4% of the federal budget. The Mercury, Gemini and Apollo programs cost about $23 billion at the time, equivalent to hundreds of billions in today's dollars.
Despite inflation and the growing federal budget, NASA's budget for manned space travel is now about $6 billion a year, and the agency's overall budget is less than XNUMX percent of the entire federal budget.
"They had essentially an unlimited budget, an open checkbook," Coates said, referring to the race to the moon. "We will not deserve that."
Despite this, the contracting companies will likely see profits from such an operation, just not immediate or dramatic profits, which can be measured in net profits.
"Working for NASA does not seem so attractive in terms of investment and benefit, but it allows people like us to develop technologies that we would not have developed under other circumstances, and advances the technology," said Richard Obercht, vice president of strategies and technologies at Mog, a subcontractor The space shuttles and other NASA spacecraft since the days of Mercury.
"If you can use the technology that you're developing there, then it's a great deal for everyone — your company, NASA and the country."
There is a risk that a large mission to Mars or the Moon will divert resources from existing plans. Boeing and Lockheed are competing to develop a replacement for the shuttle, known as the "Orbital Space Plane", until the year 2008. Plans for the project began even before the Columbia disaster in February.
"I guess my belief is that the space plane will be part of whatever program there is," said Coates of Lockheed Martin. "What I don't want to see is a delay in the program, while they figure out where to go from here."
The key to rewarding the contracting companies for any new space operation is whether the program is an ongoing program or if it is a program that stops once its first goals are achieved.
Mike Mott, Boeing's vice president of space systems, hopes that whatever goal you set will be funded for the longer term than Apollo.
"I didn't hear that it would be a one-time task. It will be a new vision for the future," said Mott. "I will be very surprised if we reach the moon, are declared winners and then return home, like we did back in '69."
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