The director general of NASA in the nineties, Dan Goldin in a lecture before the National Space Foundation in Colorado, April 8, 1999 and tells about DNA computers and robots that erase the laws of biology * Goldin believes that there is a need to increase basic research and development at NASA
By: Daniel Goldin. Translated by Avi Blizovsky
Why do we need to invest in space research and development? For 15 years, the US Space Foundation has provided a unique forum where difficult questions can be raised, often leading us to new thinking and new strategies and approaches to answering these questions.
This year, the foundation leads again. She promoted the astronauts of space shuttle flight number 95, who lead the joint effort of NASA and Boeing to place the new horizon in space - the International Space Station. The title of the conference is "Space - Advancing our world" describes what I want to say today.
"I am the product of a generation of Americans who sacrificed for the sake of our children's future. My parents realized that T.S. Eliot meant by saying "Only those who risk going too far can discover how far a man can go".
We need to not only raise the floor for our children but also raise the ceiling for them to reach, just like our fathers did for us. Raising the ceiling should be done through long-term risk investments. Through this, we can continue America's leadership for the next generation. We will train the next generation to be the workforce that will compete in the global economy, and we will help the next generation to dream and be inspired."
The system of freeways that cross all the US states is an example of an investment made in our forefathers' generation, and it pays for itself today. President Roosevelt in the XNUMXs understood the need for a network of highways. At the time he thought that three major roads from north to south and three from east to west would be enough, but critics scoffed at the need for this and Congress rejected it. It was only in World War II that General Eisenhower saw how Germany's investments in the autobahn network paid off, when they helped her move her forces in the war. It was Eisenhower's contribution that brought us the road network. Needless to say, this investment was not returned during the Eisenhower era, but to future generations.
Today, our generation is building a new freeway - the freeway of the future will take business ventures into space cheaply, send astronauts safely beyond Earth's orbit, and help America explore the universe comfortably.
The interstellar highway, like today's terrestrial highways, will have a destination. It will help laboratories test new technologies in biomedicine, biotechnology, robotics, advanced materials and combustion. To name just a few examples. Its exchanges will be open to anyone, not just NASA astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. It will have its own communication system, an interstellar internet. It will go beyond the orbit of the moon, and will reach other planetary bodies, asteroids, comets and even other stars. It will bring new technologies that we have not dreamed of today. And it will even help us answer the question "are we alone". In any case, the new highway will require fundamental changes, ensuring safe and cheap access to space.
During the Apollo program, over $50 billion was invested in Saturn rockets, 5 twenty years ago, we invested nearly $40 billion to build the reusable space vehicle.
Today, NASA is investing $2 billion to reduce the costs of access to space. I want to clarify. NASA understands that given today's tight budget, an investment of 2 billion is a lot of money. We also internalized the demand of the voters who, during three election campaigns, demanded that the government do more for less money. During that period, NASA's spending budget was cut by 40 billion dollars.
Today we spend $3 billion a year to operate the space shuttles. If we extend the lifespan of the ferries to 30 years, without upgrading them, we will spend 90 billion dollars - this is without calculating inflation. If we can reverse this, and increase our investments in R&D, we can save billions of dollars and we will have money for the big tasks that I am talking about. We can also help the American launch industry, and help national security.
Even if the investment will not be as high as in the Saturn 5 rocket from the Apollo operation or in the space shuttle, we will still need higher amounts than we are investing today. We at NASA are not naive to think that the trend will reverse overnight. But we do believe that if we start increasing investments today, we will see amazing results.
If we take a final look, a generation ago at the investments made to conquer space, it seems that they affected all areas of life. Today we take for granted the return of these investments - global communication, direct television from satellites, telemedicine, long-term weather forecasting, digital photography and imaging, fire-resistant materials, smoke detectors, computerized bar codes, disposable diapers, pacemakers , scratch-resistant glass, remotely monitored devices for patients in intensive care rooms, as well as products designed for protection.
Why do we need a freeway?
All these things are reality, but NASA was not founded for them. NASA's mission is to answer basic questions in science and research such as: How was the universe created, how did the galaxies, stars and planets develop? Can life take different forms, will these be simpler or more complicated forms, based on carbon or other materials can exist somewhere other than planet Earth? Are there Earth-like planets outside the solar system? How can we use the advantageous position of space to develop long-term and accurate models for predicting natural disasters, and forecasting weather and climate? How can we cause a technological revolution to make flight in the air and in space available to everyone all the time, everywhere, safely and at an equal price for everyone, and that this will have less impact on the environment and improve business opportunities and global security? And how do we apply this information to establish a permanent presence in space to improve life on Earth?
To answer these questions we need an interstellar highway. But we are reaching the limits of our current technology. We can no longer rely on what we have built so far to get where we want to go. I will use NASA as an example, but the problem is not only NASA's. Look around at today's technology and you'll see examples of how we're just improving technology that's been around for over a generation. The car - it is smoother, but still works with the same technology. The plane - is bigger but still works with the same technology. The computer is faster and has more memory, but still uses silicon and is approaching its physical limits. At NASA, the technological frontier is the rocket.
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NASA's greatest challenges
In the next twenty-thirty years, NASA has a plan to uncover some of the great mysteries of the universe. To achieve the goal we must achieve breakthroughs to enable these missions and reduce the cost of getting to space. These are the great challenges of NASA. Today it costs about 20 thousand dollars to put one kilogram on the space shuttle - almost the same price as it was a generation ago. Disposable launchers are not much cheaper.
For manned missions to Mars, the cost of launching into low Earth orbit the instruments and materials needed to build a station for a permanent stay in space is between 5 and 10 billion dollars per year. This means 80 percent of NASA's annual budget. If we can reduce the cost to a tenth of this amount and even to a hundredth, we can open the doors of space for manned research.
Among the things we would like to do in space, we would like to carry out the "Life Detector" project to place 4 telescopes 1.6 million kilometers from Earth. The goal is to find evidence for the existence of life on 400 planets around other stars, and which are within a possible range of observation. We estimate that devices ten times larger than Hubble will be required. To achieve this, we will need to develop concave mirrors the thickness of tissue paper. And if we succeed in this, the discoverer of life will be able to discover molecules and gases. These discoveries will aid discoveries about life forms on planets orbiting other stars. Using current rocket technology it would cost $4 billion just to get them into orbit around the Earth.
Another mission, called Planet Imager, will look for evidence of oceans, continents, and mountain ranges on planets orbiting nearby stars. 25 40-meter-long telescopes will be launched to a point 1.6 million miles beyond Earth's orbit, where there is a gravitational well that will keep them in place. To get a detailed color image of a planet orbiting another star, we will combine the information from each of the telescopes. We haven't reached such precision yet. This still needs to be invented. Think about the other applications for these technologies.
Just to launch a spacecraft into an orbit 1.6 million km from the Earth would cost tens of billions in today's technology. To improve weather forecasting and expand our ability to predict changes in climate on a seasonal and annual basis, we would like to launch a telescope to another gravitational well - the one located between the gravitational fields of the Sun and Earth. This telescope will be 4 times larger than Hubble, but also cheaper and lighter, and with a much higher resolution.
A similar telescope, one that can also see at night, will observe the darkened side of the Earth. These two telescopes on either side of the Earth will cover the Earth and send images of both sides of it, allowing us to track storm movement, changes in ocean currents and volcanic ash flows. We will be able to obtain unbelievable images of the Earth's rotation, as well as a wide variety of new measurements - 24 hours a day.
With the help of observation satellites, scientists could predict El Nino six months in advance. Imagine that forecasting models will be developed, which will help draw up evacuation plans in case of a foreseeable disaster, and prepare strategies for farmers, and will also provide more detailed weather forecasts - global, regional and local. Based on current technology, the cost of launching these two devices alone is about $3 billion.
The need to reduce costs is not just an issue for NASA. A generation ago, the US led the world in commercial satellite launches. Today, American companies supply only thirty percent of this market. This does not bode well for future generations.
The only bright spot in these data, is why would the taxpayers demand to finance large amounts for NASA's great challenges when the launch costs are disproportionately high to the costs of the missions? Why should taxpayers foot the bill if we can't cut launch costs by a factor of ten or even a hundred?
There is only one solution to the problem. We must invest in research and development to reach revolutionary technologies that will bring about the reduction of launch costs. We need new tools to build the highway.
If we look ahead, to the future of my grandchildren Zeke and my granddaughter Jessica, it is certain that the demand for assets in space and access to space will be much greater than today. The question is, how can we conclude the demand for better weather forecasting, cheap global communication, safer air and space flights, and amazing missions to planets and other planets.
To reduce launch costs by a factor of ten to one hundred, we will need materials that are more adapted, much more stable and lightweight, much more rigid engines, with more efficient utilization of fuel, with self-sensing and the possibility of self-repair. Flight control and operation systems that are operated by dozens of people rather than thousands, computers on board the spaceships that are a thousand to a million times faster, and are able to write their own software code, thus giving the space vehicles a measure of intelligence. The fastest computer on earth that we have today, processes about a million operations per second, and requires a megawatt of electricity, now compared to that, the human brain processes a million times faster, and requires only a few watts of power - this is our goal to reach the computer field, but despite this, we Very little of the research and development money in this direction is invested in this task. Instead, we rely on the computing industry shrunk the last atom from the silicon wafer and the result is an evolutionary change - not a revolutionary one. At NASA we want to look at new methods of computing, perhaps using DNA or computers based on quantum mechanics.
Only with these new tools, humans will be able to leave Earth's orbit. When we are ready to send humans beyond our planet, we will first send robotic colonies, to establish the life systems there. These robots will be machines that will behave like humans, both individually and as groups. Their structure will be automatically adapted to the environment. They will function automatically and have the ability to do jobs in unusual ways. Like humans, these robots will operate biological sensors and motion control, they will be programmed with the possibility of cooperation in the future with other systems, and they will be motivated to explore, repair and adapt themselves for environmental changes or to face an emergency situation. We at NASA are looking for solutions that will be inspired by biology.
Take the cockroach for example. Okay, this might not be the prettiest example. His brain is much simpler than the human brain, but he can still operate a 6-foot propulsion mechanism, operate light and heat sensors, activate change detectors such as a rapid change in light intensity, implement an escape mechanism, control a survival system (lay eggs before dying from poisoning), and has foraging abilities. We don't even have a clue how to program such a sophisticated device (and one that can also replicate itself). In any case, the development of knowledge will undoubtedly open new directions for space exploration.
Just think about the tools needed to allow astronauts to live safely and comfortably during a two-three year journey. Because the crews will not be able to return to Earth in an emergency, the astronauts must wear body-scanning vests. If an astronaut needs medical attention or even surgery, robotic assistance equipment and virtual surgical aids will be on board the spacecraft. For example, if the astronaut unfortunately suffers from appendicitis, these tools will have sensors that can guide other astronauts in the life-saving surgery process.
All contact with the intelligent devices will be done using natural language instead of low-level languages that are transmitted today via the keyboard. Humans will be the final controllers of the system but most operations will be performed automatically. This system, centered on humans, but based on smart devices, inspired by biology, and made of smart materials - will provide the most comfortable environment for deep space exploration.
I took you through some of the most interesting and unbelievable goals. But we will achieve many if not all of these goals. But it is clear, in any case, that if we push the technology we will get a high return. At NASA we have set ourselves big goals that we want to achieve during the next generation. The basis for this is cheap access to space, without which we will continue to rely only on the products developed during the Cold War, the Apollo project and at the beginning of the shuttle program. Imagine that in 2030, Zeke and Jessica will use the tools I described, and we can remove the space barrier. Federal Express could send packages anywhere in the world in two hours and still charge $17.95, we could set up manned colonies on Mars; The Department of Defense will have global access to space for the purpose of ensuring our national security; Business passengers will be able to fly at 5 times the speed of sound on transatlantic flights, industrial R&D parks and transportation hubs will be established in low orbit around the earth; Space flight will be accessible for the price of a comfortable car, and will be as easy as driving a car; And, NASA will continue its mission to rewrite the books of biology, chemistry and physics as it opens up the final frontier.
I am optimistic about the future. I believe it is not a question of whether we can make the investments to achieve the goals but only a question of when it will happen.
We can close NASA, save the research and development budget, and live peacefully for the next decade. We are not determined to have a big impact as we continue to rely on investments that have already been made. But after that there will be nothing. Or we can maintain the current level of development and ensure that we improve what we have today. or? That we invest in research and development to ensure a stable future, one that will help us build the highway for the future, and one that will allow us to make technological breakthroughs.
Like Eisenhower's freeways, the freeway of the future will affect the American economy in ways that cannot be calculated at all today. Remember "only those who risk going too far can discover how far one can go".
As a grandfather to my grandchildren, I want my generation to be remembered as someone who lived by these words.
