"The Internet in 2012 will be 75 times larger than it was in 2002, and if Facebook were a country it would probably be the third largest country in the world at this point," said Stephen Prentice, Vice President and Gartner Fellow
Analysts at Gartner, the leading international research and consulting company in the fields of information and communication technology (ICT), predict that the IT industry's revenues will amount to 3.5 trillion dollars, and will show long-term growth in the next five years. Against this background, the analysts announced that they predict that two trends, which are currently emerging trends, will become markets worth a billion dollars by 2020: human augmentation and portable electrical devices.
"We live, play and work in an increasingly digital world, where people have no choice but to become as digital themselves as they can. The Internet in 2012 will be 75 times larger than it was in 2002, and if Facebook were a country it would probably be the third largest country in the world at this point (after China and India). The uncontrolled proliferation of information is also an existing reality from which there is no escape. By 2020, we expect that smart devices will increase to 200 billion units, compared to 60 billion in 2010," said Stephen Prentice, Vice President and Gartner Fellow.
Prentice made the remarks in the opening remarks at the Symposium/ITxpo 2010 conference, organized by Gartner on November 11-8, in Cannes, France. As part of the conference, over 3000 executives from the IT industry in the world gather to hear the news and forecasts for this market for the near and distant future.
As mentioned, beyond the year 2020, analysts at Gartner predict that the market for augmentation technologies for the human body will become a billion dollar market. This is a technology that focuses on creating cognitive and physical improvements and including them as an integral part of the human body. This technology is slowly but surely developing in the direction of enriching people's lives in a real way. Another trend that is developing rapidly is the portable electrical appliances. By 2011, Gartner predicts that people will own more than a billion laptops and 5 billion active mobile phones worldwide, and estimates that, based on demand levels, sales of this market will amount to more than a billion dollars in 2020.
Says Prentice: "Looking forward, we expect to see more retirements of existing technologies in innovative and creative ways. We see less and less real new technologies that manage to enter the dominant trend. It is not meant that we will not see new developments, but we are starting to see early signs of key technologies for the next wave of technology, which we estimate will continue from 2025 to 2080."
"We make our forecasts after researching the growth of the IT market and future technology adoption forecasts. We examine emerging social and business trends, and based on our findings we will mark a likely future direction for winners and losers. This methodology does not replace the existing methodology but rather enhances the existing models", explains Prentice.
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Dawn, I don't understand what exactly you are talking about. Here is an interview with him from May 2010.http://www.themarker.com/tmc/article.jhtml?ElementId=skira20100518_1169400&log=true
He also sounds a bit worried based on what he says here. I don't really understand him because the meaning of much more expensive oil has drastic consequences for the entire economy so I don't understand why he says it as if it were the price of tomatoes or something.
David Passig claims that the energy crisis will disappear because Katsav
The production of electricity from alternative sources is progressing exponentially and multiplying
itself in such a way that the demand is relatively close in the future
for fossil energy will decrease in a way that balances the shrinking supply.
I mean sparrow, the pace is slow at the moment but it is increasing and going and that is the point.
The Internet will remain the same size as the Earth.
But the amount of nonsense they will write will increase 75 times
Oh you and Kurzweil... What about the energy crisis? I understand that for you "peak oil" is not really a problem.
All this technological forward looking seems a bit optimistic to me considering the slowness with which fossil fuel substitutes come in.