At the "Science of Complexity" conference of Bar-Ilan University, the National Science Foundation and the German Minerva Foundation, which ends today in Eilat, Prof. Eugene Stanley from Boston University told how he predicted the economic collapse, relying on a model used to disperse particles
Another piece of advice for the new finance minister from an unexpected angle - physics. It turns out that models developed for predicting the behavior of subatomic particles can also help predict landslides in the capital market.
The news comes from the "The Science of Complexity" conference, organized by the Raznik Center for Advanced Technologies at Bar Ilan University, which deals with the study of complex systems. The conference is jointly organized by Bar-Ilan University, the Israel Science Foundation and the German Minerva Foundation, which has supported the center since its inception, and its representatives were full partners in organizing the conference.
One of the prominent lecturers at the conference was Prof. Eugene Stanley from the Center for Polymer Research and the Department of Physics at Boston University. Stanley presented the model he developed, which was used to predict the behavior of atomic particles and converted it to predicting the economic crisis. Several years ago he already predicted the crisis, and if the relevant institutions had listened to him, and had been prepared in time, the crisis might have been avoided or at least would not have reached these dimensions.
"The developmental behavior of financial time series has also attracted researchers interested in physics." Variables such as stock multipliers, trading volumes, and the number of traders were found to exhibit a consistent dispersion corresponding to the 20:80 principle (power-law tail). Physical insights can be used to examine the influence of external factors that are outside of statistical regularity."
"The statistical properties of time series (series over time) of financial variables are unique. The example stock multiples exhibit more prominent tails than would be expected from a simple distribution. Events such as the stock market crash in 1987, in which the daily fluctuations in the stock prices included in the S&P 500 index multiplied 20 times. An analysis of the correlation in stock price fluctuations shows that even though the stock multiples are a short-term figure, they allow significant prediction even for a few months."
Prof. Stanley described the use he made of such a model, several years ago and he predicted that during the next decade an economic collapse must occur. Unfortunately, he could not predict the exact year in which this would occur. Apart from the field of economics, he investigates the possibility of using models in the field of public health - to predict epidemics and prevent them.
Prof. Moshe Koa, President of Bar Ilan University who founded the Center for Complex Systems together with Prof. Shlomo Havlin and Prof. Ido Kantor explains that it was a unique experience at the time, because it includes three seemingly unrelated fields: complex systems, neural networks and mesoscopic systems ( Tiny systems, which were initially measured in micrometers and today in nanometers - that is, the basis of nanotechnology). The center was financed from its inception by the German Science Foundation - Minerva, which marks 16 years of cooperation with Bar-Ilan University, and has invested a lot of money in the research carried out at the university.
Another interesting thing that happened at the conference was a meeting between four generations of researchers, starting with Prof. Natan Aviezer, through his student - Prof. Koeh, Prof. Richard Berkovich and Dr. Moshe Goldstein. "Each generation promoted science in its own direction," says Prof. Koa. "
A chance to bring scientists back
"Following the success of Bar Ilan in the fields of nanotechnology, I was able to raise 150 million dollars to establish the largest center in Israel for nanotechnology and our plan is to receive 50 returning scientists in the center." Prof. Kua says. "Precisely during the general world crisis, this is an opportunity for the State of Israel, for the new government, to bring the brilliant minds back to the country and strengthen Israeli science. There are a lot of fascinating scientists who are studying abroad. Today, due to the collapse of the capital market, the universities in the US are unable to absorb them. I call on the government to make an effort to make a leap forward and improve our scientific quality, which will improve technology and ultimately Israel's economy."
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You don't need a tuxedo. I rented an outfit from a theater costume store in Tel Aviv, because the audience at the Nobel Prize event must also come with a mummified outfit.
And the forecast: a landslide is expected during the next decade.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
This is extremely serious, because even in the decade after the next decade, a landslide is expected. And also in the following decade.
Wow... I think I've come up with something: a landslide is expected every decade!
there is a God !!! The Nobel is on the way!!!! I'm running to buy a Tosido and a Swedish-Hebrew phrasebook!
I have not yet read in the newspaper about the coffee reader who won the lottery nor about the physicist who made millions from calculating tomorrow's stock index.
It is interesting that all the prophets and the other inventors of the "models" are always remembered after the avalanche...
And even if they were remembered before the landslide, I wouldn't believe them, (see the entry of the monkey who defeated the analysts).
On this it is said that the prophecy was given to fools, even if they are physicists with high degrees.
In the last decade there were 2 serious economic collapses, to which of them the professor meant the collapse of the "dot com bubble" or the current collapse "the subprime crisis".
It's hard for me to connect to the article without more information about his theory.
I don't think there are physicists who really believe this nonsense.