A report submitted to the Climate Conference in Bali predicts that this expansion will change the climate in many places, where most of the agricultural produce is currently produced
In preparation for the important environmental conference in Bali, a working paper was published stating that "climate changes are causing the expansion of the equatorial regions and their "creeping" towards the poles, the "creeping" was indeed predicted by climatologists some time ago, but it turns out that the expansion of the equatorial regions is much faster than all predictions, An expansion that will lead to the desertification of large areas in sub-equatorial regions, and to storms and extreme weather in temperate regions.
The working paper was written by Dr. Seidel from the National Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research, Dr. Dian Seidel US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The geographic maps show the equatorial zone between the circle of Cancer in the north and the circle of Capricorn in the south, the equatorial zone changes according to the cycles of the earth's rotation (around itself and around the sun) in the Milankiewicz cycle. According to this cycle, the equatorial region is defined as the area between the two points farthest from the equator where the sun sets on the longest day of the year. Of course, the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and as a result global warming affects the expansion of the equatorial region, since the climatic definition of the region depends on what is happening in the sea, on land, and in the air. Indeed, here too the extreme changes are diagnosed.
The extreme changes can be measured and observed in the constant air currents in the atmosphere, currents/winds, the most important of which is the Hadley cycle (or Hadley cell). The Hadley cell is an air movement/wind cycle: an air current rises from the equatorial regions, at an altitude of 10-15 km the air flows towards the poles (north and south), the air current descends in the subtropical regions and flows close to the area in the direction of the equator. This cycle affects rainfall in equatorial regions, sub-equatorial deserts, the "jet stream" and the "trade winds".
The Hadley cell is the cycle that causes a lot of rain in the equatorial region and alternating dryness and lack of rain as you move away from the equator.
A few years ago, a computer simulation showed how warming would cause the Hadley cell and the winds associated with it to move poleward. According to the most extreme conditions, an expansion of two degrees (about 200 km) was predicted by the end of the 21st century.
The working paper, which is based on data from 1979 to 2005, shows that the expansion has already exceeded the forecast and reached up to 4.8 degrees (480 km). In other words, the "creeping" of the equatorial climate to the poles is many times faster than all the predictions!
For the expansion of meaning / worldwide influence:
Many of the countries of Europe and Asia as well as expanding parts of the USA will "enter" the paths of tropical storms, (due to the fluctuation of the jet stream towards the poles) the expansion brings expanding areas into a dry strip, into a semi-desert to desert climate zone. A strip where the human population is the densest: Southwest USA, Northern Mexico, South Australia, South Africa, South America, and of course the Middle East. Most agricultural products are grown in these areas. These areas will experience a significant decrease in rainfall, and the consequences are clear.
The paper is submitted to the conference in Bali as another survey that emphasizes the importance of activities to prevent warming and preparations for the consequences that will result from global warming.
Dr. Assaf Rosenthal, ecologist,
Tour guide/leader in Africa and South America.
For details: Tel. 0505640309 / 077-6172298,
Email: assaf@eilatcity.co.il
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But I don't understand where the explanation is...
/-…..,
More explanations charts and sources in the black butterfly effect
http://the-black-butterfly-effect.blogspot.com/2006/06/blog-post_114945575595540726.html#links
Like many other phenomena related to climate change the direction was predicted several years ago but the rapid pace surprises the scientists
As the global warming deniers said to the scientists, you don't really know what will happen and it turns out that they were right, the researchers were wrong, the situation is worse than the predictions
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A distinction must be made between the geographical division that determines the equatorial region, and the climate, where the main problem is high (equatorial) temperatures measured in temperate regions.
and later - to David,
The warming exacerbates the weather phenomena - storms, hurricanes, etc., when these phenomena affect the more populated areas of the world, the advantage of the warming of cold areas... is small.
What's more, today all the arable land is being used
That is, for food production, the expansion will not add agricultural areas, but will only reduce them.
Moreover, the attitude of "I and nothing more" when the "I" is the human population, this attitude has brought us many disasters.
Many of the environmental problems stem from the attitude of:
control of the environment for the sake of the human population,
The time has come for human population control
For the environment!
Isn't this a two-way process?!
From Dr. Rosenthal's words, I understood that two processes are taking place at the same time, the expansion of the regions with an equatorial climate, and in addition the expansion of the regions with a desert climate.
It is easy to see the damage caused by the expansion of the global desert belt (with an emphasis on its book regions such as the Middle East). But won't the expansion of the equatorial areas cause an increase in the equatorial forest (which in turn will absorb the carbon dioxide), or at least a significant increase in equatorial agriculture? Aren't these areas good for agriculture (bananas, mangoes, pineapples...)?!
In the same way, as a result of the warming of the northern continents, will we not be able to grow more agricultural crops in Canada, Norway, Sweden, Great Britain and Russia?
In my opinion, if the whole story of global warming can be summed up in a sentence like "moving the world's growing areas and changing the centers of agricultural power", then it should be said. With that being the case, and it is not a global drought, but a change in the main growth players, so perhaps the change is welcome. I don't think it's fair to talk about a global catastrophe, when all we're talking about is a change in the balance of production.
For me, buying wheat from the equatorial nations, or barley from Russia, is no less good than buying them from the USA.
Hello Dr. Rosenthal,
It seems to me that there was a mistake in the article: if the equatorial regions are defined as the regions between the latitudes where the sun is in zenith on the longest day of the year (December 21 for the southern hemisphere and June 21 for the northern hemisphere, as I imagine), how is it possible that these regions have expanded as a result of global warming? These latitudes depend solely on the inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the plane of its rotation around the Sun. Was the intention to expand the desert areas?
Good Day.