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There is a high risk of conflict between the US and China due to the lack of oil * Israel must ban natural gas exports

In April 2011, Prof. Amos Noor from Stanford University said that Israel must not allow the sale of natural gas. The science site was the first to quote this (penultimate paragraph).

This is what Professor Amos Noor of the Department of Geophysics at Stanford University warns, who lectured as part of the Nancy and Steven Grand Energy Program at the Technion * "China and the US are competing for the development of oil resources in the Middle East" * Eight wars have broken out because of oil in the last twenty years from the Gulf War to Libya and according to Noor The situation will get worse

The head of the energy program at the Technion, Professor Gideon Gerder (right), introduces Professor Amos Noor at the beginning of his lecture. Photo: Yossi Sharam, Technion Spokesperson
The head of the energy program at the Technion, Professor Gideon Gerder (right), introduces Professor Amos Noor at the beginning of his lecture. Photo: Yossi Sharam, Technion Spokesperson

There is a high risk of a conflict between the two largest economic powers in the world - the US and China - due to the struggle for control of oil sources, if the leaders of the two countries do not manage the crisis wisely. This is what Professor Amos Noor of the Department of Geophysics at Stanford University and a world expert in the oil field warns.

In a lecture he gave as part of the Nancy and Stephen Grand Energy Program at the Technion, Professor Noor said that many wars broke out because of the lack of oil, and only in the last twenty years eight such wars have occurred. According to him, the first Gulf War was intended to cause regime change in Iraq - which has the second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, while privatizing the oil sector. The September 11 attacks resulted from bin Laden's distaste for the US support for the Saudi royal family, which controls the oil resources, while demanding a more equitable distribution of the funds in the Saudi kingdom.

The crisis in Egypt, which caused the change of government, is also related to oil - when the population growth on the one hand and the depletion of oil wells on the other hand caused Egypt in recent years to turn from an oil exporter to an oil importer and there was no money left from oil sales that could be invested in subsidies. As a result, food prices doubled and fuel prices increased by dozens of percent, which fueled the anger of the masses against Mubarak. The fact that Libya is an oil exporter has also caused the West to intervene in the current crisis, with the aim of ensuring a democracy, where one crazy dictator will not rule over Libya's oil reserves.

Energy in general and oil in particular are the largest economic industry in the world - and it generates about 10 trillion dollars a year. However, oil resources are limited and also the tendency is to consume them quickly with discoveries. As a result, in many countries the peak of output has already been reached and the quantities produced are only decreasing. In the USA, the peak came in 1971 and after the soaring curve of population growth and the falling curve of oil production met, the USA became an importer of oil, today it imports about two thirds of its oil consumption and in about a decade it will reach 80%.

China also became an oil importer following the increase in the standard of living. If initially it searched for and developed oil resources in relatively remote areas such as the Darfur region in Sudan, today it competes with the US in everything related to influence on oil resources - mainly in the Middle East. Thus, for example, it opposes sanctions on Iran in order to secure oil for itself.

"Ultimately, if the crisis is not managed properly, it may lead to a confrontation between the two powers," warned Professor Noor. "Those who think this is far-fetched should remember that the USA and Japan were not enemies before World War II, but the Japanese decided to destroy the entire American fleet in the Pacific Ocean in an attack on Pearl Harbor and risk war, just to ensure access to the oil wells of Sumatra. Rommel also did not race only to eliminate the Jews in the Land of Israel, but to take control of the oil wells in the Middle East, in particular those in Iraq that were discovered already in the XNUMXs."

Professor Noor added that the entire world is approaching the peak of oil and gas production, when the net pumping is greater than the amount of oil discovered in new wells. However, unlike the USA in 1971, which began to import from the rest of the world, especially from the Middle East, which sold oil at a low price, today there is never an oil surplus like there was in the 70s, so the competition will increase.

Professor Noor also addressed the issue of alternative energy by saying that even if alternative energy types such as solar, wind, biofuel and even nuclear energy are used - will be comparable to the use of oil, gas and coal today, we will still need similar amounts of oil and gas in 50 years as the ones we burn today because that the demand will increase 2.5 times.

Referring to the discovery of natural gas in Israel, he said that Israel today can be compared to Norway's situation with the discovery of oil in the North Sea in the XNUMXs, and thanks to the democratic infrastructure, the gas profits will eventually flow to the public and will not remain in the pocket of one family as in Saudi Arabia. However, it is worthwhile for Israel to keep the gas for itself and not to export it, despite the temptation of a quick return on the investment, for two reasons - to guarantee itself stable energy for many years, and to produce products with high added value and export them, which would be much more worthwhile than exporting gas whose price is relatively low .

As for the Technion's energy program, Professor Noor said that it is essential because one of the problems is that "in Israel there are almost not enough people knowledgeable about the subject and now with the discovery of gas reserves in the sea we suddenly do not have the technical personnel required to develop these sources in the right way".

* The article will appear soon in the Technion magazine

20 תגובות

  1. It is strange that the science website allows posting a response that suits Al Qaeda and the anti-Semitic elites.
    I am talking about the response of a commenter named Shay who defines himself as a Technion graduate, and I quote:-

    "Al-Qaeda was created and funded by the US and the Mossad, so it's clear that the twin attacks were one big show and it's a shame that the professor is blind to that." End quote.

    There is a blatant allusion here to the guilt that the Mossad and the US carried out the 11.9/XNUMX attacks
    I suggest to Abi Blizovsky to delete such antisemitic comments.

    I find it hard to believe that the aforementioned guy - Shay, is a Technion graduate if he thinks that countries can print as much money as they want...

    Good Day
    Sabdarmish Yehuda

  2. 016
    You should be ashamed of these comments, and so close to 9.11. It is simply a disrespect to those killed in the biggest terrorist attack in the world.
    All these conspiracy theories are very popular with the Muslim world, which, as always, blames all the evil on the Zionists and the West, and it doesn't matter that it was actually caused by them...after all, they are a religion of peace...that's what they claim.
    Maybe you should watch less 007, 016 movies!

  3. With all due respect to the professor, there is no need to keep the gas in the hands of the citizens of Israel
    and the analysis on the oil situation is closely related,
    Added to this is the global crisis that threatens to erupt due to a lack of food
    But more than that, lack of water.
    China, Saudi Arabia, and other countries are acquiring territories in Africa,
    areas that will allow them to develop food sources and control water sources,
    Without oil it is very difficult without food and water it is impossible.

  4. Is there no shortage of oil?
    After all, in recent years I have had to dig deeper and in less accessible places. And besides, who let us finish all the resources of future generations?

  5. Right now what is actually happening is that individual people are pouring into their private pockets the resources of an entire country!!

  6. China is a threat to the entire global economy

    Natural resources are limited, and any growth in China's economy violates the balance in the global distribution of resources.

    And this is the reason for the economic crises in the world in recent years.

    In one huge country, the economy grows, and all of Europe goes bankrupt.

  7. The best thing is not to export the gas

    But there are many slaughters, and there are those who cut fat coupons here.

    And if everything was done according to what is right to do, our country would look different.

    But money corrupts man, and also causes wars, and in the end the one who says the last word is money.

  8. As a Technion graduate, I disagree with the professor.
    The source of conflicts is not only oil, but also control over civilians, ground control in strategic locations and power.
    In the end, governments don't lack money and can print as much as they want.
    Al-Qaeda was created and financed by the USA and the Mossad, so it is clear that the twin attacks were one big show and it is a shame that the professor is blind to this.

  9. The nightmare of an American-Chinese conflict is not a particularly likely scenario for the coming decades.
    China has some serious structural problems that will prevent it from trying to take hegemony from the Americans:
    The one child per family law causes and will continue to cause in the future an unreasonable age structure of the population with a huge population that is rapidly aging, when the young population that needs to support it is too few.
    In addition to this, hundreds of millions of Chinese who have come out of poverty into a middle-class life, have done so thanks to the Western population buying everything from them: gloves, shirts, machines, electronics, and what not. In a war situation, who will buy the products? Who will pay these hundreds of millions their wages?

  10. Apparently the respected energy expert forgot that he did not specialize in international relations or political science. Probably not in Orientalism either. With him, everything is simple because everything, but absolutely everything, is oil. It is enough to consider his arguments regarding Egypt: since there was oil and now its reserves have dwindled - that's why the unrest arose. Well, according to this argument, oil is also to blame for the civil war in the Ivory Coast, since there is no oil there. If we assume that there was oil there we can assume that there was also silence.

    And in short, certainly the invention [and its distribution across the globe] of this product which is impossible with it but twice as difficult without it, are an important part of shaping the face of modern human history, but still there are a few more parameters.
    And by the way, contrary to the imaginary response 2, I reject the study of the right to bin Laden the evil one. If oil or without it, the inferior and bitter Islamic Jahlia because of its inherent inferiority, will already find other ways to justify its cruelty and love of murder [Din Muhammad Besayf].

  11. Basically, he said what the "peak oil" people have been shouting for several years. I don't completely agree with the historical analysis but there is no doubt that oil has been a major player in violent conflicts for some time now. The problem with alternative energy is that without a wise investment of existing fossil fuel resources to build alternative energy infrastructure there will be no energy left for such construction in the future. We'll go bald here and there.

  12. Max- It's included inside. Since the alternative energies will be practical for wide use and will reach the incredible quantities that are currently produced in oil, gas and coal, they should be hundreds of times more efficient than today.
    And is oil and coal cheaper? Very unlikely.. not to mention that a car needs fuel to travel today, and so does a plane and they will probably continue to need them in the coming years..

  13. "...if the utilization of alternative energy types such as solar, wind, biomass and even nuclear energy - will equal the use of oil, gas and coal today, we will still need similar amounts of oil and gas in 50 years as the ones we burn today because the demand will increase 2.5 times."

    And what about the constant improvement in solar energy efficiency? Solar energy in the near future will be much cheaper than oil or gas and there is no economic reason to use them (apart from various industries), even if the demand increases.

  14. As soon as he is quoted as parroting the lie that "Al Qaeda" is responsible for the twin attacks
    When there is a wide variety of evidence that this is not the case.
    Anything else he talks about should be taken with very limited liability.

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