Warning - an asteroid will approach Earth dangerously close in August 2039 Currently the danger is not great, but there is a fear that too close in 2027 will divert the asteroid to a collision course 12 years later Akiva Bar-Non Professor of Planetary Sciences at Tel Aviv University calls for waiting for further observations
By Avi Blizovsky
In the picture, the orbit of the asteroid (in red) compared to the orbit of the Earth
A year after Sho's warning about the danger of an expected asteroid crash into the Earth in the decades of the next century, a similar warning comes again, this time with more reservations, for the fourth decade of the 21st century
An asteroid discovered by researchers in New Mexico at the beginning of 1999 may come dangerously close to Earth in August 2039. This is asteroid 1999 AN10, but by this June it will be possible to know if there really is a warning, then the asteroid will pass near us again and it will be possible to refresh the calculations. The asteroid was discovered on January 13 By a group of scientists from MIT in the project - LINEAR English acronym of NEAR EARTH RESEARCH PROJECT, LINCOLIN on January 13 from the missile base in New Mexico. The Linar team and Brian Marsden posted the asteroid's coordinates online for other astronomers to view. The asteroid was discovered by chance, says Grant Stokes from Lincoln Laboratory at MIT, which runs the Linar project.. Its approach path was calculated and published last week by a team of 40 Italian astronomers.
The chances that it will hit the Earth are currently one in a billion, and the month in which it will come particularly close is August 2039. This is according to the initial data, which show that for now there is no need to declare a state of emergency, says Stephen Chesley from the University of Pisa. He reported this last Thursday. (April 14, 1999) However, the Italian researchers show that the asteroid in question will spend at least the next 600 years in an orbit that crosses the Earth's orbit, so that it remains a long-term danger.
In their study, which is presented online in its entirety, the Italian researchers write that the Earth passes quite close to the asteroid twice a year, but whether the asteroid is on a collision course with the Earth or not depends on the position of the asteroid in relation to the Milky Way (the plane where the Earth, the Moon and the other planets are when they orbit together the sun). The next time the asteroid will cross the Earth's orbit in the same plane and not be above or below it will be in 2027. However, a collision is not expected at this meeting, however the asteroid may deviate from its orbit and return again to several possible meeting points.
"In light of the experiments, we developed a theory that allows us to successfully predict 25 repetitions of the asteroid approaching the Earth by the year 2040. We also identified six more approaches that will be as a result of the influence of the Earth's gravity. Most of these approaches will not result in a collision, except for one that will occur in August 2039. The chance of a collision right now is less than that of an undetected asteroid impact on a given day. Because of its extremely chaotic behavior, there is no way to detect all of the expected approaches of this asteroid for more than a few decades, but The orbit will remain dangerously close to Earth's orbit for the next 600 years.
The team of scientists led by Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa calculated and found that it will pass close to Earth in 2027. They were not sure how close, but they say there is a slim chance that it will pass close enough to Earth's gravitational field to cause an impact on its orbit and then it may return 12 years later for a fatal collision, however, uncertainty as to its distance from Earth in 2027 increases uncertainty as to the chances of its impact in 2039
Astronomers from all over the world watched the asteroid until it moved away and disappeared on February 20, continuing its orbit around the Sun. They expect to make further observations in June when it can be seen again. According to Brian Marsden, an expert on near-Earth objects at the International Astronomical Union, this will allow for an accurate determination of its expected distance during its passage in 2027, and thus to try and calculate the degree of influence that the Earth's gravity will have on the continued trajectory of the asteroid. According to him, this asteroid has been threatening the Earth for several hundred years.
Although the chance of a collision is quite small, scientists say that it is desirable to know about it because an object the size of 1999 AN10 could kill all living things in large areas of the Earth and change its climate. According to Akiva Bar Nun, professor of planetary sciences at Tel Aviv University, this is an unfounded hypothesis. If they manage to check his route exactly, maybe it will be possible to get better information. In the meantime, I recommend not to get excited.
