Have we passed the point of no return in the Earth's carrying capacity? Studies in Science and PNAS claim that it is
I often add at the end of the list the motto "The time has come that instead of controlling the environment for the sake of the human population, there should be control of the human population for the sake of the environment".
It turns out that the intention may be correct, but it is possible that we have already passed the point of no return and, at least in one sense, controlling the size of the population is already impossible, according to two publications. The one in PNAS וthe second in science The world population will continue to grow despite the attempts to stop the explosion.
As the researchers say, "Limiting population growth in the short term will not solve global problems of environmental sustainability", even if there is a worldwide policy of one child per family, by 2100 the world's population will be at least similar to its size today. Even major catastrophic events (catastrophic events) will not cause a reduction in the population which, without limiting the birth rate, will reach 12 billion people by the end of the century.
The worries and concerns about the human harm of people to the resources of the globe grow and multiply especially if the increase in the population continues. According to the authors of the publications, "Today, about 14% of all people who have lived on Earth live today. These growing numbers mean an ever more severe damage to the environment: forests are turning into agricultural fields, urbanization (development of urban areas) is growing, increasing pressure on species, pollution and climate change.
The general picture is not clear because even though the worldwide numbers show that there are countries where productivity has been decreasing in the last decades, the global population is growing and growing, the negative impact on the environment is growing accordingly and even more since the "abundant society" is consuming more and more resources.
A team of experts using data from the World Health Organization and recommending a policy of "assistance" to reduce the level of fertility tested various scenarios for changes in the population until 2100, they also took into account catastrophe scenarios whether due to war, climate change or epidemic , and came to the conclusion that "attempts to stop the population explosion in the short term will fail." Even if the Chinese one-child policy is copied by the end of the century, the world's population will reach 8 to 10 billion people.
The researchers state that "the time has already passed when such a policy can be implemented easily", this is because of the huge size of the population which is defined as "demographic momentum" "a momentum that cannot be stopped quickly enough". Even draconian legal measures or regulations to control fertility and reproduction will not stop the rate of growth, since due to the magnitude of the problem it is a reduction or stoppage that will last for hundreds of years.
The researchers examined the impact of future disasters and found that even if two billion people are "wiped out" in such disasters, at the end of the century there will be at least eight billion inhabitants in the world, meaning that in the next hundred years, even mass disasters will not cause a significant change.
The researchers describe the effect of the excess human population on the double consumption of resources in a china shop, a difficult problem to solve which the world has ignored, mainly because of the political and moral sides, but also because of ignorance.
The researchers show that in the short term, curbing reproduction will not bring relief to the environment, but in the long term, "with effective family planning and education on a global scale, you can limit the size of the human population and ease the pressure on resources."
"Our great-grandchildren will benefit from such an initiative, not people living today", therefore today the world must concentrate on curbing consumption and implementing entrepreneurship to preserve species and the environment. Prof. Bradshaw, one of the editors of the publication, says that: "The company's sustainability efforts will be aimed as much as possible at reducing harm, through technological help and social innovation."
And after all that, because of the Prime Minister's words, I continue and claim that the time has come that instead of controlling the environment for the sake of the human population, there will be control of the human population for the sake of the environment!
Isaac Asimov - The End
Israel is approaching the end of its carrying capacity - artificial islands are needed
37 תגובות
It's our fault that sex is fun...blame nature.
anxious
I could not open the link. Birth control is a necessity and I don't think a sane person can think otherwise. If the birth rate will decrease due to natural reasons, such as increased education, awareness of contraceptive measures in certain places, and so on, then of course there is no need to limit proactively.
But, if the rate does not drop to something the world can feed - we will be destroyed. Does anyone really not see this?
Here are the types of creatures that support birth control:
http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-4592207,00.html
"...They admitted what was attributed to them and added that they belong to a group that sanctifies "global purity and population reduction."
Eliyahu
Eugenics is actually not a bad solution if it is applied to the same "humans" as some of the commenters here, especially those who support birth control.
Eliyahu
Either you will substantiate your (sickening and lying) response or you will find a forum of morons to pour your hatred there.
This is not the place.
The World Health Organization and the UN aim to transform eugenics from an experiment carried out by the Nazis into something worldwide. Will leave enough poor to support the rich.
According to their opinion, God does not need more than 100 million human beings.
Miracles Every sentence that has a registrar in his response is problematic. And it will remain that way until we get a link that shows where he is getting all this extensive knowledge that he has (and as a constructive criticism, I will recommend him to change some of his sources of information).
gift
A sentence that begins "The facts are that until about 2050 the population.." is a bit problematic to me. How can the future be factual?
Collected and left the respondents
By and large, there is mostly ignorance and shame here. Everyone and the old conventions they know.
There is nothing new in the article, on the contrary, mostly old and incorrect hymns.
The facts are that by about 2050 the population will rise to 9-10 billion and then it will stabilize and start to decrease probably to 6 billion in 2100. Currently, everywhere, as women learn to read and write, the birth rate drops dramatically. When the trends are that probably in most of the western world and probably also in the Arab countries the population will age due to a minority of births which will cause severe economic problems. Something that is already happening in Russia today. In addition, the birth of 10-20 percent more males will cause additional serious problems in Arab countries and China. So that in fact the problem of overpopulation will be in some countries in Africa and around Pakistan and Afghanistan where women still do not learn to read. The only place where educated women give birth more is Israel, where middle-class secular women give birth to about three children, while Arab and ultra-Orthodox women give birth to fewer than before, which probably eliminates the worry about the demographic demon.
In Israel, which is super crowded, the largest city south of Be'er Sheva is Eilat. In order to strengthen Eilat and create a regional center, like the districts of Haifa. The port of Eilat needs to be upgraded, and academic institutions promoted. But Eilat is a tourist city without a zoo, without sports facilities, without . A philharmonic orchestra or an opera.
No Name
You are very right, and this is indeed the Stoic reason for having many children. Today there are other reasons, such as religious reasons, which also need to be addressed.
The family structure is the factor, when your insurance policy and the pension is your children, this is what happens.
In Western countries the emphasis is on the individual and there are alternatives for old age (money and services provided by foreigners) the birth rate decreases significantly.
I said some…
And if I was barren, wouldn't I be a man in your eyes?
They must be suffering terribly. just like you.
You messed up 🙂
adopted? What, you weren't man enough???
How does it all work out for you, raising children, flying airplanes, writing groundbreaking theses, helping the elderly, saving lives, raising a limbless person from a wheelchair and reacting from morning to night to morning? How do you get all this? You are really amazing...
ז
Instead of castrating myself - some of my children are adopted.
Miracles
Well done!!!!
He said!
And you, as an enthusiastic and enthusiastic supporter of the idea, are invited to set an example for humanity - and castrate yourself first.
Then make sure your girl doesn't give birth to more than one child.
we made a deal?
Are you ready to stand behind your preaching?
Answer in two words... no more is needed. (otherwise we'll think you're just confusing eggs for no purpose)
The big problem is that everyone is looking out for their own backs. They tried to pass a law in Israel to prevent the use of plastic bags. The prime minister dismissed the issue, and the reason is probably not a thought for the common good, but the good of the head of the dress, or his wife.
Birth control is an excellent solution, but the right way, in my opinion, is through education and training, not a law. Pay attention to who has a lot of children - weak classes and idol worshipers of all kinds ("Pro and Rebu" Elek....).
And by the way - in India there used to be a law to sterilize men with two or more children, and even today there are certain restrictions, and attempts to reduce the birth rate.
control? Who has the right to control such a thing and according to what principle?
right!
Let's limit the birth!
And to be fair:
We will start enforcing the "law" on those who propose it.
Then we will move on to those who spawn children in quantities (like Indians and Arabs)
In the end, the increase in population will cause the destruction of the earth and a shortage of food (especially in the poor countries). Which will lead to natural disasters and wars that will lead to a decrease in the size of the population...
History has already proven that all kinds of ideas that are supposed to limit individual freedom for the sake of good intentions, cause terrible results (eg communism).
So is any attempt to limit birth... Who will determine the policy of restriction? Why would all the citizens of the world agree on the established policy? And let's say there is a body strong enough to be able to force the reduction of the birthrate globally, in the end the body will abuse its power and lead to a catastrophe much worse than the current situation.
To all the quick and hasty responders:
In the past I have already written that "end of response in reading comprehension" therefore I suggest reading again, slowly and thoroughly, especially the two paragraphs before the last.
Go back and check who the researchers are who published the report, check the credibility of the researchers and the credibility of the stage for publication, only then go back and read their response
And maybe they will understand where they were wrong and where they burst into an open door, a personal attack (in Adi's style) on whoever brought the research here, stems from personal problems and is unnecessary.
There is an invention called a condom.
You should teach the guys from the third world how to use it.
Nonsense, there is still plenty of space, Russia is empty, Canada is empty, Australia is empty, Mongolia is empty... and future technology will also allow more people to live more comfortably (it is also possible to build deeper). The problem is different, those who are multiplying are African and Muslim countries, and also in the West only the Muslims are multiplying, and they will already destroy civilization and themselves to the joy of the left in a kind of global Arab "spring". Finally only a small amount of people will remain (300-500 million maximum) and nature will recover (this is the master plan of the greens).
Yigal, for your child and your grandchild. Sound better? That was the intention…
Controlling the human population for the sake of the environment! : scary, scary!!!! Why do you write here like that? What is China here?
Controlling the human population for the sake of the environment! : scary, scary!!!!
Adi
I suggest you learn a little about the world, to understand that it is going to be very bad. You don't need 12 years of schooling for that...
Adi
Since it turns out that you are not only here for fools who see pink
but also a "poet" who specializes in profanity.
There would be no point in continuing
Talk to the Bedouin who is married to five wives and has sixty children (daughters not counted). Talk to the fanatic who turned his wife into a birthing machine. talk to the walls
Asaf,
You resemble a teenage choir boy who discovers that his beautiful soprano voice is beginning to break, and his beautiful smooth skin is beginning to be filled with pimples, and ugly hairs are beginning to grow all over his previously smooth and pleasant body. Then he shouts to his friends - "If this continues at the current rate, then soon I will lose my voice completely and will not be able to communicate, and my whole face and body will be covered with pimples and hairs and I will look like a lump of hairy pus, and because of the hair I will not be able to see, I will walk down Vaders Street. It's time to control the testicles for the sake of the body!!! Let's cut them down!"
Now, I never thought I needed to explain to you the difference between facts and prophecies, but your last post proved me otherwise, so here goes:
All you have left are facts, symptoms that you see around you right now - the voice changes, pimples appear. The prophecies of rage are the conclusions you draw about the fact that in a moment you will be run over because of the excess hair.
Okay, let's start by castrating those who are in favor of birth control.
The solution is not to decrease, on the contrary - let's expand on Mars.
Let's invest money in establishing colonies on the red planet.
Reducing the population by way of one child per family. It is a recipe for disaster - the aging of the population, which has many shortcomings that are not the place to discuss them here. It is quite clear that this is not the solution - it will only bring more problems. We can talk about stopping the growth - or a very gradual reduction that will take hundreds of years. Since the rate of population growth is on a downward trend, this will probably happen anyway.
The truth is that Prof. Bradshaw is right. Education and technology will lead to solutions and reducing the pressure on the resources of the Central African Republic and to act today for tomorrow.
And I believe that technology will find solutions on how to take care of people and the environment.
To Adi and other "optimists",
If the destruction of forests is just "just another prophecy of wrath",
If the creation of garbage patches in the oceans is just "just another prophecy of wrath",
If ocean acidification is just "just another prophecy of rage",
If melting glaciers and flooding low-lying areas is just "just another prophecy of wrath",
If destroying coral reefs is just "just another prophecy of wrath",
If you emit pollutants into the atmosphere, this is just "just another prophecy of wrath",
If he killed wild animals to the brink of extinction, this is just "just another prophecy of rage",
If the air and water pollution with harmful chemicals is just "just another prophecy of wrath".
If all the "prophecies of wrath" prophesied by "fools" do not come true today
at the fault of the human population,
Or then you are right!
But all the Rams are no longer prophecies but current events,
So who are the fools?
Boo hoo woohoo. How much did you cry? I enjoy reading Rosenthal's "articles", I usually end up amused, like after watching a video that American parents made when they inform their child that they ate all the candy he collected on Halloween while he was sleeping, and the child responds with heartbreaking sobs in "You ruined my life!"
History has seen innumerable prophets of rage in such shekels, who do not understand that the world is such a complex system that there is no more correct sentence than "the prophecy was given to fools" to describe their writings of the peyah. As Koko noted above me, at the end of the 19th century, the beginning of the 1908th century, there was a panic that if the population growth continued at the current rate, there would be no way to finance it when it reached __a worthless number that is significantly smaller than the world's population today__ except by clearing forests and taking over the land for agricultural crops, and also It will run out very quickly and the entire world population will be retarded by a __worthless date__. Then Fritz Haber invented a process for the synthesis of ammonia in 1907 that made it possible to produce fertilizer on demand, and look what a miracle, everything changed from end to end and the world's population grew to dimensions that no one would have imagined in XNUMX and no disaster happened.
I have 1.1-2.2 children, how can I lower the birth rate in the world? Castration?
And again which articles should be addressed to an Indian with ten children. And to the King of Saudi Arabia with fifty children…. The white man behaves with exemplary responsibility and the population of Europe grows by 0.27% every year. And it is even lower if we exclude from the calculation the immigration from the third world every year to Europe (an estimated number of about 400 thousand people per year)
The greens will inevitably lead to the destruction of Western civilization - because democracy is first and foremost demography. Also from an evolutionary point of view, survival is first of all numbers. This is seen in every culture of micro-organisms.
Instead of treating the sick countries they attack the healthy countries. And to remain polite and for fear of being called racists, they leave the sick cells immune to criticism... I live in Scandinavia, how is it that the birth rate is only going down, the population in the world is exploding and we Westerners are being blamed?
It's easier to yell at the good and disciplined kid than the sweaty bully.
Precisely as Israelis who live in a crowded country that can provide itself with food. You can see that the world can be much more dense and delicate to support the population. Overall, we need to move to high-rise buildings and leave a lot of land for agriculture. It is not clear to me why they decided that it would be difficult to support 10 or 12 billion. Why not 50 billion people?
At one time it was also thought of as one billion.
Of course there will be an end to it, but naturally the multiplication is small anyway.
The problem is that where it is talked about in Europe and the USA the natural reproduction is so low and in some countries negative.
Indians and Arabs will not be affected by such addresses...
Even if everyone was aware of the population explosion problem. I don't think they will care enough to stop having children.
Of course, "restraining consumption and applying entrepreneurship to preserve species and the environment" help, help to keep the summer away for a few more generations.. but in the end the resources on the planet will not be enough..
In short, this problem is not being addressed because there is really nothing to be done... it's kind of like saying we will all die eventually, but no one is taking this problem seriously..
The only and imaginary solution we see is moving to another planet... it is so unrealistic and far from us.
It makes much more sense for the solution to be like the solution with the Palestinians - no solution. Most of humanity would prefer not to address the problem and hope that it will disappear or that something else will solve it, in the end there will be positions. Those closest to the plate will be able to, the rest will die...