think five years ahead
The field of futurism, or future studies, began to develop in an institutionalized way during World War II, when military bodies were required to plan "five-year plans". When they tried to think five years ahead, it turned out that the human race has no tools with which to plan the future.
Those engaged in "future research" try with the help of different future research methodologies to examine how it is possible to influence the future in the fields of technology, economics, demography and industry. The basic premise of the study of the future is that the existence of evolution presupposes a logic for evolution.
Double predictive reliability
Many researchers in the field offuturology Seek to locate or identify the logic patterns of different systems, and based on them, develop models of development.
With the help of these models, it is possible to help organizations and describe to them what the next steps in the system will be. The accuracy level of these models reaches 60%. It sounds little, but Dr. David Pasig, an expert futurist in the economy and the effects of technological changes on it, says that it is a matter of double the reliability of prediction than that which exists in normal statistical models.
energy and materials
According to Dr. David Pasig, a forecasting expert from Bar Ilan University, the most important development that will affect the industry is not linear, but changes in perception in various areas that will affect all of our ways of life, and especially the industry.
At our request, he named two areas that will undergo dramatic changes: the energy area and the materials area. These are effects that are beginning to be felt on a small scale already, and are expected to have a much greater impact in the medium and long term.
What is between computers and energy?
According to Pasig, the energy sector is about to undergo a paradigm shift similar to the computing revolution. 50 years ago, computers were huge and computer time was very expensive. Mass access to computers was minimal. "The human race has realized that this is not the way, so for the last 50 years it has taken these large computers, smashed them into small parts and scattered them in space. Initially, these parts were primitive, and gradually they were upgraded towards a main goal achieved in the last decade - to go back and connect these parts and create a network that will surpass any supercomputer that can be built, both in processing capabilities, in communication, and in storage. The result obtained from all the small parts will surpass any supercomputer.
Smash the big stations
We estimate that a similar phenomenon is about to occur in the energy production industry. It is understood that these are expensive enterprises whose exploitation is "funny". There is no other industry that gives up more than 40% of its production from the start. The by-products of this concept, i.e. its disadvantages, outweigh the advantages of this energy as time passes." (And all this after burning fuel in a process that has a low efficiency. A.B.).
"We are going to smash these big stations into tiny pieces and scatter them in space. At first they will be small power plants, and later tiny power plants. The energy production system is getting smaller and smaller. In the last year, they began marketing a product, the size of a vacuum cleaner, that supplies energy to an ordinary house, for many months, without being connected to the electricity grid.
Fuel cells and cold fusion
The first equivalent of a PC for the energy industry, i.e. a small power generation unit, costs 4,000 dollars (compared to about 7,000 that the first PC cost) and its price will go down to 500 dollars, when the capacity increases. The idea would be to eventually connect them back into a more efficient grid than the large power plants we have today. Each of us will start producing energy and we will sell the excess back to the electricity grid. Many types of energy stations will be developed.
The first stations I talked about earlier use what are known as Fuel Cells. The big dream is to build such stations that will operate in cold fusion. It is also likely that we will reach something similar to the open source revolution. There will be large movements that will use different methods for energy production and we will witness an entire paradigm that we know today - nuclear plants, coal, solar farms will belong to the past - this is a concept whose probability of falling is very high due to the major shortcomings."
Smart building materials
The LOW TECH will become high tech. For example, various construction industries. From concrete to tiles, plaster, etc. Today we see an interesting paradigm that is developing - it is called "smart materials". Until today, materials used for construction were what we call dead materials - building a house from wood, concrete or plaster, if something happens to the material - high heat in the summer, fire, cold, obsolescence - all these cause the materials to deteriorate.
Now they are starting to look for ways to develop smart materials. An intelligent substance is a substance that perceives with the help of various sensors that the environment has changed and it changes according to the environment. A concrete that is used today in special projects has already been developed that when it cracks it begins to release certain substances that close the crack. Today there is steel that has "shape memory", if for example a fire broke out in some building and the steel became warped today it is simply thrown away. With the help of a special steel that has a shape memory, as soon as the temperature returns to the normal state, the steel returns to the initial shape in which it was forged.
Textile that cleans itself
There are already many such products, for example darkening glasses, materials that clean themselves, for example glasses. If the glass feels that there is dirt on it, it slowly cleans itself, like our body does, if it is injured, the body gives itself an order to ice the wounds.
We are starting the big move in history where we are starting to develop smart materials. This is the type of materials that the human race will develop and industrialize. All industries, all products will begin to change - textiles that clean themselves, clothes that contain medicines - for example vitamin C in places where there is no sun. All of these are called SMART MATERIALS.
The first will succeed
Each of us will have to devote a part of our attention, and industrialists' attention is already full of daily dealings, to think about how these trends will affect their specific role. Of course, there is no school solution to this, but it is clear that if industrialist A does not do something about it, then his competitor industrialist B will do so and take A out of the market.
