Autumn is disappearing and turning into a continuation of summer. Studies have shown that in Israel and its surroundings the warming was much greater than the world average. A study by the Institute for National Security Studies showed a connection between climate change in the region and civil wars in the region. The climate crisis has long been no longer a theoretical issue
As we celebrate today (September 22, 2021) the autumn equinox, members of my generation (60) remember that in the XNUMXs there were cold autumns and winters in which the rain fell in more or less equal distribution. The shooter also - that strong autumn rain that opens the rainy season, fell in September and I even remember a sukkah being flooded.
The autumn of today is not the autumn of yesteryear. Gradually and then even more strongly from the beginning of the 2010s we see that as part of the climate crisis created as a result of carbon emissions created by humanity in fact the autumn disappeared, and became a part of the summer. The delayed winter of XNUMX is engraved in our collective memory, and in December the great fire broke out in Carmel, which also brought a disaster that cost many lives.
A few months ago we reported on A study published in the journal Climatic Change, who determined unequivocally according to the precipitation data in Israel that the rainfall regime has changed, and it is now falling for a shorter period of time - what was previously the peak of winter has now become the entire winter season, and since the amounts of rainfall have not changed, this causes floods which also cost quite a bit in human lives.
The study, led by Dr. Efrat Shafer from the Faculty of Food and Environmental Agriculture at the Hebrew University, in collaboration with Dr. Ron Drori from the Hebrew University, Dr. Baruch Ziv from the Open University and Prof. Hadas Saaroni and Ms. Adi Atkin from Tel Aviv University, examined whether the rainy season in Israel undergoes processes A change in recent years, in terms of the amounts of rain or the distribution of the rain throughout the season?
The team of researchers analyzed the trend of change in the rainy season using the daily precipitation data from 51 measuring stations of the meteorological service between the years 1975-2020, including the annual amount of rain, the length of the season, and the number of rainy days per season. The researchers also examined the relationship between the trends of the rainfall regime and the activity and frequency of different types of storms that create the rain events.
The results of the study clearly show that the annual amount of rain has not changed in the 45 years examined, but there is a trend towards a reduction in the number of rainy days as well as a shortening of the rainy season.
In addition, it was found in the study that most of the annual rain falls in the middle of winter and less rain falls in the fall and spring, resulting in a longer dry season.
Prof. Colin Price, head of the Porter School of Environmental Studies at Tel Aviv University wrote in an article for Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) Because in Israel and its surroundings the increase in temperature was much greater than the world average. As we know, Israel resides in a problematic environment of poor countries whose ability to deal with climate challenges and especially the supply of food to their residents is weak. As in Syria, the lack of food will lead to population migration to the cities, which are not prepared for this, and those poor people will be a convenient target for recruiters of terrorist organizations. You don't have to go far. This is exactly what happened in Syria.
"Another manifestation of climate change is its effect on rainfall. However, when analyzing Israel's rainfall data, the results are less conclusive. In the last 30 years we have witnessed a trend of a decrease in the amount of precipitation in all of Israel in a way that is consistent with the trends in the entire Mediterranean region, however these long-term trends in the amount of precipitation are still not statistically significant (this study was written in 2020, before the first study we reported on, which shows that the average does not predict everything, and even if the amount of precipitation has not changed - their distribution has. AB). Nevertheless, in the future scenarios, when compared to the period of 1961-1990, we can expect a decrease of up to 25% in the amount of precipitation until the year 2100.
Reduced precipitation combined with increased evaporation will exacerbate water scarcity in the region and affect water availability, especially in neighboring countries where desalination is not yet widely used. This will have a direct impact on the agricultural harvest due to the multiplicity of forms and implications for food security in the region, along with the continued growth in the population of Israel and the region. Reduced precipitation and rising temperatures will lead to larger and more destructive fires in Israel and the region, and Israel experienced an example of this only recently.
"The average annual temperature in Israel increased by 1.4 degrees Celsius in the period of 1950-2017, with the greatest warming occurring in the last three decades (~0.53 degrees Celsius in each decade). Temperatures began to rise systematically starting in the 1s. This is compared to a global warming of about 130 degree Celsius during the last 2020 years! Hence the warming in this part of the world is much faster. In the "business as usual" scenario, that is, if current trends continue as they are, the average temperature in Israel is expected to rise from today (2050) to 1.2 by another XNUMX degrees Celsius."
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Eli - It is possible that the earth will recover, but naturally it will take tens of thousands of years, what will this help you or me or all of humanity?
Easy correction: like then, this time too, the Earth has come out of the 'greenhouse effect' (will manage to come out of...)
I disagree with those who insist on four seasons when scientifically there are only two: winter and summer. Spring and autumn are completely irrelevant romantic diagnoses, what's more, in some countries there is almost no difference between summer and winter, only in the average temperature. There is a rainy season (winter) and there is a season when the rains are reduced (summer) but it is always hot or with an average temperature of 25 degrees Celsius.
On the other hand, I am also among those who claim that the entire greenhouse effect is one big bullshit. And the earth has already gone through difficult experiences than these and has always corrected itself. Over the years of his life, the earth has gone through catastrophic disaster experiences and emerged from them safely. The last one was in the middle of the 17th century called the Little Ice Age. where more than half of the Earth was frozen. As then, this time too, the earth came out of the 'greenhouse effect' safely. And all the thousands of associations that stood up to 'warn' are mainly warning because they do not earn the hundreds of billions that all the countries spend on the matter when they do not understand what they are spending the money on. After all, if they spent so many billions, then (a) where does it go and (b) if they spent so much money, why don't they see results for it? The 'non-childishness' of those who claim the opposite are true and they had a share in the profits, so why don't we see results and the complete cancellation of the discussed greenhouse effect. Where does the money go or what do we do with it and there are hundreds of billions running around? After all, you don't need to be an expert and when one thing starts rolling, then billions also roll after it, and after these, all kinds of delusional groups that 'surely know' how to eliminate the greenhouse effect are drawn to them. Give me some of the billions and I will cancel the entire greenhouse effect. OK? OK
My father you are ignorant and with the land the melting of the glaciers makes the air colder next time don't invent lies prove yourself substantiate your lies there is no proof of what you said a lie
In recent years, starting with the year 2015, the rain began to fall at the end of October from October 20 and above or according to the Hebrew months from 2004th in Hashvan to 50th in Keslio, this is a reasonable time when it should be the first rain in the country, and if there is no rain from this date, one should fear a drought, and for that they do a rainy season, and definitely From 70 there were years of drought with rainfall amounts of between 80%-2015-1992% until 1998 and I remember that in the nineties in 1994-95 there were particularly rainy and stormy winters in 45-50 there was a rainy and stormy winter here with such scary thunderstorms I I lived in Beit Shemesh at the time and that winter began in Tu Chesvan with rain, thunder, and lightening in a light blue color, and every lightning brought a tremendous thunder and it sounded like fighter jets doing dives from top to bottom and I was going to go to sleep, I would put the pillow over my head so that I wouldn't Being frightened by the intensity of the thunder and lowering the blinds on the window, and despite that, the blinding caused by these lightnings did not help and the flashes penetrated through the closed blinds, so try to understand what a winter was and we are no longer like this and I have not seen another winter like it and all the roads in Beit Shemesh turned into rivers that flowed in the Hikva basin to Nahal Sorek and every time If such a depression would come, it would last for three to five days, and every time it rained, each episode of rain lasted for about XNUMX minutes to XNUMX minutes with breaks of fifteen minutes or ten minutes, and unfortunately, in recent years, it has been the opposite
Scientific studies have proven that in Israel the warming was much greater. There is also a reference from this letter. Doubt about the climate stems from all kinds of childish ideologies and interests of those who want to preserve the status quo even if this leads to disaster
Hi my father, there is a *huge* difference between a change of 1 degree in the *global* average (average climatic phenomenon) and local weather (rain/non-rain) in a tiny area cell (the Land of Israel) during the seasons, since a local weather system ( in place and time) is a chaotic phenomenon. Any serious climate scientist would agree with this statement. Moreover, even if the general trend is of warming (due to carbon emissions), locally, for example in the Middle East, there can be an opposite effect: the melting of the glaciers at the poles causes more cold polar air to penetrate to lower latitudes, meaning that the winter at the pole will be "warmer" but The winter in Israel will be colder. This exact phenomenon was in the snow system last year in Israel!
Be careful to make a connection between climate and weather. Even more so, beware of nostalgic arguments ("I remember that there used to be autumn here..."). For example, one of the longest periods of drought in the history of the Land of Israel was between 56 and 62 (6 years with little rain!). Since 2011 there has been an improvement in the rain indicators compared to the first decade of the 21st century, contrary to the trend of global warming.
Tom, you are ignoring the physics of carbon dioxide whose amount increased from 280 to 420 parts per million, an amount that was enough to raise the average temperature of the earth by XNUMX degrees (day and night, summer and winter, poles and deserts). This is not a theoretical hypothesis.
Israel has always been a dry country. The first immigrants who settled in the north at the beginning of the 20th century (and again from the end of the 19th century) are recorded in years of severe drought without rain (referring to Guy Oni's book). The shoot in Israel, historically, takes place in October or November and not in September. In addition to a climatic system, an examination of only 45 years will inevitably be biased since it is a very short time span, this is similar to a study that says that the hand showing hours on a clock is always between one and two o'clock out of 30 minutes of historical information....